The Kaintuckee Derby

[derby1592]

TGJB,

This is a lot like one of those brain teaser puzzles: given the following statements, figure out which figure each horse ran in the Wood.


I don\'t see how to make those numbers add up. How could Sunday Break not move forward (i.e. only pair up) while still 2 others in the race also paired up and one went back only 3/4 of a point? If D\'Oro paired up or went back 3/4 of a point, then Sunday Break had to move forward (i.e., D\'Oro only finished 1/2 a length ahead of SB, he did not lose significantly more ground, he carried the same weight but he came into the race more than 3 points faster). If Saarland paired up or went back 3/4 of a point, then Sunday Break also had to move forward (i.e., Saarland finished 3 lengths behind SB, he did not lose more than 2 or 3 lengths in ground than did SB, he carried the same weight and he came into the race 2.5 points faster). Since D\'Oro and Saarland could not have both bounced (you said only 2 bounced and one of them was Buddah) then I just don\'t see how Sunday Break did not move forward in the Wood.

Where is the flaw in my reasoning? How about giving the solution to the brain teaser...

Thanks

Chris

[Tim B.]

I will say this.....if somebody actucally has a STRONG opinion on who to key in the Derby, please inform me and tell me your reasons.  This year\'s Derby is one of the toughest races to handicap I\'ve ever seen, rivaling a typical BC Sprint.  This is the main reason that I will not be a Harlan\'s Holiday fan on May 4 (or at least I won\'t be keying him).  

I respect your opinions, Jim, despite the fact that you seem to get the goat of others in here.  But it sounds like you kinda just ended up picking HH, without REALLY liking him.  In fact, it almost sounds like you\'re trying to talk yourself into betting Essence Of Dubai, who certainly would be a bigger price and is a bit of a mystery.

Speaking of EOD, does anyone have any strong opinions regarding him, Johannesburg, or Castle Gandolfo?  I do not buy into the media-driven theory that just because nobody has won the Derby without an American prep race it can\'t be done.  It\'ll probably be done sometime and then we\'ll never hear about it again, similar to the way that Fusaichi Pegasus was being knocked heavily since favorites \"never\" win the Derby (and winners of the Wood Memorial, for that matter).  He wins, then we don\'t hear any of that bullsh-- regarding Point Given or Congaree last year.

Anyway, I am interested in any strong opinions, whether they be from TG or Rag users.  We all have the same goals, don\'t we?

[kev]

Jerry you said, \"they forgot to split the 1 and 2 turns races\" I take it this is a big or little mistake. Why havnt they ever fixed it, or are they just hard-headed like that???

Man, would you all like to see or hear i should say a sit down with Jerry B. and Len F. them two going back and forth on fig. making???

It seems like to me, most people sides with either one because, they like JB or LF it seems like the figs doesnt really matter sometimes. I started out a rag user and went to TG cause of the on-line use and C. service. I\'ve had great scores using both of them. Here of late seems like TG has been moving forward to beter their product. Just seems funny how sometimes Rag figs will say the horse bounced 2 pts. and TG figs has that same horse moving 1/2 pt. forward That\'s what gets me thinking about the figs.

[bhib]

There was only one 2-Turn race on that day.  Was the variant calculated on just the one race?

[kev]

Looks like on the Beyer scale with weight and ground loss, Budda looked like he pair up his last race. M\'oro moved forward and Sarrland moved two pts forward and Sunday Break jump a good amount forward.

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Has to be some bad info here. Of the six that finished Iwin (6th) had an inside trip but finished 25 lengths behind the top pair, so no way is he pairing up his last an 8.

According to the boss noone moved forward (big clue LOL)

I\'m guessing that this race came back ALOT slower than  we (I) imagined. Blue Burner with his five wide trip on the 1st turn and a 3-4-5? wide 2nd turn ran 3/4 slower to a 3. He didn\'t pair up but a slight retreat.

A 3/4 retreat on SB makes no sense and a Medaglia would be a 3.25 which would make SB\'s wider trip faster than his 5.75. A 3/4 retreat on Saar makes BB\'s race much slower.

Buddha and Medaglia bounced, Sunday Break repeat 5.75 and Saarland with wider trips than SB repeats 3.25, just my stab at it.

N....E......X.....T   LOL

Gvido

[HP]

I would feel better doing this closer to the race, but I don\'t like Request for Parole off the break. It\'s a lot to ask a horse to come off this kind of break to run well at a longer distance than he\'s ever run. And he\'ll have to run his best to take these. I can see him on a ticket, but not on top.

Ditto Johannesburg. The other shippers are a headache.

Harlan\'s Holiday probably will look good, but not so much better as to justify the short price. If I learned anything last year, it\'s that if you\'re going to take a short price, he should look MUCH better than the others, and I don\'t think that will be the case here. Another who looks more like a saver than a main course.

I just don\'t know who I like on top yet. HP

[fastspeed]

Tim,

EOD will run well - all godolphin horses in the derby have performed as well as they could be expected to.  

worldly manner, china visit and curule had no business being there on class and (especially) distance considerations yet all ran respectably (first six or seven, I think). in fact I think that on TG figures all three ran a new top in the derby - clearly the dubai trip was no problem.

(as an aside, express tour also did not stay and ran a monster race to beat street cry beforehand anyway that set him up for regression - I can\'t even remembered where, or if..., he finished).

if you project that historic improvement to EOD, consider that he has the right running style and that he is proven at the distance - you have a strong claim for minor honors at least (I mean impeachment and thunder blitz were hardly world beaters). Don\'t let him screw up your exotics, because he will.

He is not my key horse, top or bottom, because there are enough negatives - class question, the 2nd and 3rd placed in dubai are not world beaters and the fact that frankie may not stay to ride. But at a price for me he must be used.

[tread]

Request for Parole is a big question mark for me also.  All reports I\'ve heard is that he was completely wiped out after the Spiral, not eating properly, etc.  It took him over a week to get back normal.  This is why they passed on the Bluegrass.  That, coupled with his running style, leads to believe he will not make the super on Derby Day.  But on paper, his line does look pretty good.

I am still not convinced there is serious early speed in this race.  Last year we had Balto Star, Songandaprayer, and Millenium Wind all who regularly ran BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures near 110.  Thats why you saw a half in 46 last year.  That type of horse does not exist this year, in fact the only contender to average E1 over 100 is War Emblem (Booklet is out, right?).

I also don\'t buy the comment about Dubai horses \"running their top\" in the derby.  You have nothing to compare it to, really, for the the previous dubai horses.  Of those who did have previous TG numbers, there were only a couple 2yr old numbers.  For the most part, dubai horses do not have TGs for many of their races, so how can you call anything a top?

And to Jim, you talk about how great the sheets are doing this spring, yet you talk about the Derby in terms of Ragozin numbers.  Now I see the reason for Jerry\'s skepticism.  I really don\'t care what the Ragozin numbers look like, but I love hearing a good debate and I bet Jerry would like to talk more about which horses look different.  So how about sharing those ragozin numbers, specifically I\'m interested in how HarlanHoliday, Buddah, MedagDoro, Saarland, and Perfect Drift look.

[fastspeed]

TG has commonly done an (estimated)  figure for the big dubai races that precede the KD.  It is on that basis that I made the comments about wordly manner etc etc.

I agree on the doubts over request for parole, the blue grass seemed easy for the money at stake, if that was the plan and you skip, the horse must have reacted pretty badly.

last year I thought TG had the wood too slow (same business about 1 and 2 turn etc etc).  this year I find it hard to believe saarland ran a 3 point top and I\'d have to side with Jerry until I see the full TG numbers.

[TGJB]

Remember in Animal House when they wrecked the car, and Tim Matheson said \"You ___ed up. You trusted us.\" Well, you made a bad assumption- that I was really paying attention when I wrote that. There were, of course, 7 horses that finished. I forgot Sunday Break, who did run a big new top. That\'s one of the reasons the figure is solid- if you do it the other way he gets an even bigger #, and the others who paired tops or went back a little got new tops- very unlikely.
Incidentally, one of those pairing his last was pairing an off race. I apologize for inducing brain cramps.

[TGJB]

It\'s a dogmatic thing, and it\'s a big mistake- as far as I know they are the only serious figure makers who don\'t split sprints/routes as a matter of course.
I have attempted to have a dialogue with Friedman about figure making theory several times, both on their site(both under my own name and pseudonyms)and here. I have gone into the differences in great detail- you can find \"Figure Making Methodology\"(5/2/2000), and a whole series of posts following last years Breeders Cup(\"Texture Of The Track\", follow ups to that, \"Changing Track Speeds\" etc.)

[TGJB]

Bad conclusions based on bad assumptions, which were my fault. See my post to Derby 1592.

[TGJB]

Ultimately, yes. A related situation came up with the 2000 Wood- I went into great detail about it in \"Figure Making Methodology\", 5/2/2000.

[Michael D.]

Based on the comments, I guess the top three all score in the two and a half range, and Saar and BB in the three and a half range? Exactly how I would have scored it. Don\'t see the extra 1/8 of a mile helping the top three on Derby day though (given the four or five speed horses now in the mix)..........

Did Rags really rate the Wood as a brilliant race? I\'m not so sure, and am looking elsewhere for the Derby winner. (though I may still use Saarland if the track comes up fair... he simply has not been used yet)