137th Derby by Sekrah

[sekrah]

I see no reason to delay this.  Both my top two choices will love the slop and I\'m confident of them on either surface, so here goes.


#1 Archarcharch -  He was looking like my 3rd choice before the draw.  Strong pattern and working like a machine coming into this.  The bad post is still not enough to leave him off my tickets completely, he\'ll be in my 2nd tier of horses and I\'ll hope for a better trip than what Lucky got.

#2 Brilliant Speed - Great looking pattern, and by all accounts looking strong but this one needs to make a new top on an surface he\'s 3-4 points worse on.  I would have considered a very light back end use (3rd tier) if he drew well, but this is enough to leave him off my tickets completely.

#3 Twice The Appeal - God, I was hoping this one would draw somewhat towards outside to make him an easy toss.  He has developed alot with absolutely no backward moves.  A pair up of the Sunland and a 1w1w gets him very close to the exotics.  3rd tier use.

#4 Stay Thirsty - Hope I\'m not kicking myself, but I\'m leaving this one off.  He\'s a click or two too slow to begin with and he freaks out easily.  He\'s training well but not well enough to think he\'ll move forward off that 3.  Toss.

#5 Decisive Moment - Few points too slow, set his top on synthetics, questionable stamina pedigree, very shakey jockey.  Toss.

#6 Comma To The Top - If you think the TG figs are coming up slow out west, this one is interesting.   He\'s just so light in his loafers (and pedigree) though.  Lots of races and lots of development.  Hard to see there\'s any more juice to squeeze out of this lemon.  Toss.

#7 Pants On Fire - Nearly textbook pattern coming into the prep races, but he was stalling out at the 5.5-6.75 range when he should have been developing more.  What happened?   Well, he was scoped after the Risen Star.  A lung infection was found and he was put on antibiotics.  He missed 3 weeks of training and had exactly one workout prior to the Fair Grounds, before exploding to 3 point top defeating much \"buzzier\" horses such as Nehro and Mucho Macho Man.  Loads of stamina pedigree top and bottom.  Very good relaxing high-cruising speed.  The pace fractions for the LA Derby were quicker than the New Orleans Handicap for older horses, and he turned away two closers when it looked like he was spent.  Gritty, gutty, training well coming into this race.  An absolute must use key.

#8 Dialed In - Strong pattern, expect a forward move here, but I\'m not exactly thrilled with LeParoux in these types of spots.  Consider the price and how much traffic he has to come through, there\'s no way you can use this one as your key unless you hate money.  The final furlong coming home in the Florida Derby wasn\'t that sharp.  I personally think LeParoux may have moved too early on him, and this horses top gear does not last very long.  Also, I do not see a deadly pace meltdown these \"experts\" are predicting.  Looking at the early pace figures of these prep races, many of the of them came in well under par.  His pattern is strong though and further development is expected.  You can\'t leave him off your tickets.  Tier 2.

#9 Derby Kitten - I don\'t even have a sheet on this one so I couldn\'t tell you.  But from what I remember of the Lexington sheets, I wasn\'t too impressed because I didn\'t bet him.  Ken Ramsey is there for the show and ego, be damned his horses chances.  A no hoper.  Toss.

#10 Twinspired - Another Mike Maker no hoper.  Although unlike some of the other synth/turf horses, this one atleast has some decent dirt breeding in his lines.  But he\'ll need to set a new top over it to hit the board here, and I don\'t see it.  His one dirt effort he inexplicably moved back 3 points.  Toss.

#11 Master Of Hounds - God what a tough read.  I learned my lesson on these horses a long time ago, but in a year where a 1 might win it, he\'s worth a look I guess.  But he\'s another one that\'ll need to run a new top on a new surface and he has a 3 point dirt deficiency in his sire line and probably something close to the same in his dam sire\'s line (Sadler\'s Wells).  I\'m still completely unsure what I do with this one, but for now I\'ll leave him on my third tier, just because I\'ll be really pissed if he\'s the one who wrecks my verticals.

#12 Santiva - I was high on this one a couple weeks ago, but his works haven\'t lit my fire, maybe it was the sloppy going.  Otherwise he looks quite good to me.  Never moved backwards until that synth race where he got jammed up. and it\'s been 2 1/2 months since he ran a 1, so he\'s definently eligible to roll back to that.  But he\'s gonna be such a big price, and he has a win over the surface.  I think there\'s value there underneath.  Bridgmohan is a good jock that knows the track.  Tier 3 if it\'s sloppy, Tier 2 if it\'s fast.

#13 Mucho Macho Man - Solid looking sheet, but there is concern it\'s taken a while to get back to that 0.  I have absolutely zero confidence in Katherine Ritvo to get this horse ready for a big race though.  She was gifted a gorgeous animal, but I don\'t think she knows what to do with it.  She\'s been struggling to even hit the board with her other charges and if I were ranking the trainers in this field she would be dead last.  I\'m not a big Rajiv Maragh fan either.  I like the horse though, and he\'s got a number fast enough to contend.   Tier 3.

#14 Shackelford - I was on the verge of tossing this horse a week ago, but god he\'s looked so good this week and is just full of himself.  Even though his pattern screams it, it\'s awfully hard to project a bounce when an animal looks as good as he does, I can still see this one coming up empty in the stretch though.  I\'ll give him a shot to hit the board and fill out the back of my exotics.  Tier 3.

#15 Midnight Interlude - I think he\'s working well, has yet to go backwards, has a Derby legend in his corner and a jockey whose won it as well.  Alot in this pattern telling me to slow down on him, a bounce coming?   A pair might be too slow.  Yikes, its so tough.  He\'s such a large animal and strides so well and looked so good after the Santa Anita I just think there is more here.   Tier 2 if it\'s fast or pure slop.  Toss if it\'s mucky/cuppy.

#16 Animal Kingdom - Another that needs to run a new top on a foreign surface to be competitive.  I don\'t understand the love for this horse.  He\'s got a 7-point dirt deficiency gap by his sire, and probably a bigger gap on his dam\'s sire line.  He won his prep in 1:52.1 and I\'m suppose to be impressed?  Toss.

#17 Soldat - The best figure in the race going off at 15-1?  Where do I sign up.  Solid looking 2 year old foundation, leads to a explosive neg-1 as he rolls back to the dirt (okay slop), but he still ran a 1.25 on the fast track a month later.   Classic 0-2-X.  A little light heading into the Fla Derby, washed out a bit in the heat.  McLaughlin is a solid trainer, he\'s added weight to the horse and he looks very very sharp right now and full of himself.  The post doesn\'t bother me.  He\'s got the early speed, and he\'ll like it on the outside, if he catches no worse than 3w3w (maybe hoping too much?) he\'ll be in perfect shape.  I don\'t think the pace will be hot enough to bury him.  If it\'s sloppy, all the better, but to me this one has to be near the top of your lists.  Key.

#18 Uncle Mo - Coming off a medical issue and looking light in his britches.  I hope they run him to take the money, but I suspect a scratch is coming.    But if they run him, can I really leave the two year old champion off my tickets?  Can I really watch Repole confidently throw his money down and make this one the favorite and leave the \"Best horse\" off my tickets?  Yes, I can.  Toss.

#19 Nehro - They had to really crank this one to get into this race, and his pattern is decent, solid forward moves.  He hasn\'t looked super sharp though in training.  A wet track will definently leave him off my tickets, but despite the bad post, I think he needs to be used somewhat if it comes up fast.  Toss if it\'s wet, Tier 3 if it\'s fast.

#20 Watch Me Go - Happy Kathleen O\'Connell finally got there after missing out a couple times.  But this one doesn\'t belong here.  Toss.


Tier 1:  Pants On Fire, Soldat

Tier 2:  Archarcharch, Midnight Interlude (fast or pure slop only), Santiva (fast only)

Tier 3: Twice The Appeal, Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, Shackelford, Nehro


Exacta #1 -  T1 x T1+T2 boxed heavy
Exacta #2 -  T1 x T1+T3 boxed lightly

$2 Trifectas done similarly (2x5x11, 5x2x11, 5x11x2 for $144 a piece) and probably some $1 supers in there with (2x5x5x11, 5x2x5x11 for $192 a piece).


Maybe I\'ll get lucky.

[jbelfior]

Sekrah:

Nice job!

I have no idea what to do with Soldat. He is a huge ? In my head. As for your analysis of Stay Thirsty, you\'re not impressed with his # in the Gotham (3), and that would be understandable in any other year.So what # do you think will win this?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Holybull]

Awesome analysis Sekrah.  After reading that and listening to the TG seminar here a few thoughts.  I\'d appreciate any feedback, especially on Soldat.

Soldat - Love him, as you and many others do.  However, a HUGE question mark is the clunker in his last.  I\'m trying to find a reason to forgive it.   I don\'t remember any derby winner in my 20+ years of watching that has come off such a bad race.   Since 1993, Only Giacamo (4th/2 lengths), Sea Hero (4th/2) and Thunder Gulch (4th/4) have finished worse than 3rd in their last prep.  To me that\'s significant.

MMM  - The connections are certainly a cause for concern.  I\'m forgiving the bad works.   I seemed like the whip was used to keep him focused, and he responded.  He did not look empty or anything.  To me he fits the part on pattern, running style, etc.

Master of Hounds -  He\'s a must use for me, if no other reason than by default. You can do a lot worse than an unknown horse with potential, a decent pattern and Gomez/O\'Brien and getting 40-1?

Pants on Fire -  This seems to be the Now Horse.  He\'s certainly a contender but he doesn\'t seem to have \"it\".    Yes that\'s very shoddy analysis but horses like him have burned me in the Derby several times.  Pass

[JR]

Same question about Soldat. I thought horses coming in off of regressions were auto-tosses? Or is this an 0-2-X? Invisible Ink had that pattern and ran well but that\'s the only one I can think of. I think I remember JB saying good 3yos should not be 0-2-Xing. JB?

[Ill-bred]

FWIW, I did not like Soldat coming in to the week, but he has looked great on the track. McLaughlin is good at correcting.

17-hole gives him a hot at an outside stalking trip in the clear. If you like this horse, I wouldn\'t get off of him.

[RICH]

The 0-2-x is vastly overated for young 3 yr olds, check it out on the thoro-pattern 5% to run the top and 23% to pair, however, in Soldats case the price may be right. Let\'s say he\'s 28% to pair or run the top, he\'d probably be 35-40% to win the race. Fair odds may be about 10 or 11-1. See what you can get

[PonyBologna]

Great post sekrah, love the breakdown.  Have a question though. In your analysis you say Dialed In is a Tier 2 but have him only as a Tier 3 in your bets. Just wondering how you\'re planning on using him.  Thanks!

[TGJB]

Sekrah-- now, that\'s an analysis. Disagree about a few things (as the seminar makes clear), but helluva job.

[MO]

Soldat should win this. I\'ll probably bet him straight up $50 win $50 place as there should be enough value in the place pool to triple me up if he runs 2nd.

[pizzalove]

Forget Soldat.  His only decent numbers have been races where he has been loose on the lead.  Will not get anywhere near the distance.  One of the easiest tosses in the race.  You would be much better off with horses like Brilliant Speed or Twinspired who have show great form just not on dirt.  Also forget analysis on any dirt performances in the first couple races in a horses career.

[covelj70]

Sek,

I really appreciate this analysis, thank you.

Between you and Jerry, I think I will have to toss one of my others underneath and put Pants on Fire in there.

I don\'t think POF is a key but I agree that he is a use.

You make a convincing case.

Thanks very much.

[sekrah]

I like the 0-2-x with proper spacing.  Under a short window, no, I don\'t like it.  But when it\'s gapped the way Soldat\'s is, it\'s very live.  If Soldat were looking shaky coming into the race, I wouldn\'t have him as high, but he\'s looked very very sharp and has one of the best trainers in the business.

I see concern over a 5% Top, 23% Pair Thoro-Pattern.  First off I would bet that very few included in that have the spacing Soldat has, and a good chunk of that involved trainers less accomplished than than McLaughlin (who nearly won with a 70-1 shot)  But also include 30% Off.  Combined, that\'s 58% that this one is going to run a 1.25 or better.  At 15-1 against this field?  Like I said, where do I sign up.

Thanks for the comments everyone.

[mjellish]

Some nice thoughts here Sek, especially reminding everyone about the lung infection for POF.  Very generous to put it all out there, including the actual bets you plan to make and structure.  Hope we both find a way to cash on this one.  GL.

[TGJB]

Also, very few of the \"0\'s\" in the study are 9 point tops. The chance of 0-2 after a top that big not being followed by a backward move is very slight. The X is almost meaningless, you can almost treat it like 0-2-layoff. The real question is whether Kiaran can get the kind of results he was getting in Florida, the ones that produced the big jump and the big \"last 90 days\". No idea.

Ragozin has Soldat\'s top the same as Twice The Appeal\'s, by the way.

[jbelfior]

Jim:

I know I will get some flack for this but as far as POF goes.....well, its Kelly Breen of Delaware Valley fame.

Good Luck,
Joe B.