137th Derby by Sekrah

[miff]

\"Ragozin has Soldat\'s top the same as Twice The Appeal\'s\"



...and slower than a few fillies in the OAKS,Brilliant data!!

[TreadHead]

Enjoyed reading it too, I\'m sure you are aware but with 50 cent tris you should break your bets out that way to protect from the tax man (you may have already planned this).  Granted, if you do hit most of those combinations will probably pay more than the limit on 50 cent anyway, but just make sure to protect yourself from Uncle Sam as much as possible!

Strange they allowed the 50 cent tris but super min is $1.

Also interested in your thoughts on the Woodford, that is one of the most challenging races I think I\'ve ever seen.  Not knowing the condition of the surface just makes it even more difficult, especially considering the course if firm (!) today after 6 inches of rain over the last 4 days.  I\'d love to see Rahystrada come back into form at a huge price, but he is an older horse now and might be getting long in the tooth.

The one horse I\'d disagree with you on is Twinspired.  Harlan\'s Holiday is not nearly the confirmed turf sire many of the others in this field are and while his only dirt try looks awful it was also during a time when his non-dirt figures weren\'t really that great either and he made big improvements since.  His dirt try was also in the middle of December, and who knows, maybe there were sub zero wind chills and he didn\'t like it.  I realize this is kind of a reach excuse-wise, but the price is right to consider it.

It has been a few months since his 3 at Turfway, and if he finds the conditions more to his liking and can run back to that and/or improve slightly here, he merits consideration.  If the track is drying out and favoring closers with most of the speed tiring, this is one that could really be moving at the end.  Good Luck!

[TopForm]

First I would like to say thank you to everyone for all this great information and insight on the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

I completely agree sek. I like the 58% chance of running a winning number vs. needing to pick the one or two horses in this stampede that will run a new top ( which doesn\'t even guarantee that the connections get a pay check depending on the pp.)

Disappointed about arch\'s draw just like everyone else. To me, his sheet is the most consistent of this bunch with that of past winners and even more of a plus he\'s been lights out in the am.

POF looks like a definite use to me based on pp 7. He figures to stay out of trouble and possibly pair up or improve slightly.

I don\'t want to hop on the band wagon with calvin but I keep looking at TTA sheet and can\'t get past the 61% chance of pairing up or improving. Combine that with the possible ground save from pp 3. Just looking at the numbers it looks as though he is on the outside looking in, but with calvin...... why not him?

[miff]

Joe B,

Kelly ok Jersey Boy, did well tutoring under Ben Perkins when they had all those runners for New Farm. Agree on POF, a one fig wonder,common prior to that.No worse than many others,though.

Good Luck,


Mike

[MonmouthGuy]

Definitely two vastly different camps Beyer/TG vs Rags on Soldat.  How Rags got that number for the Gulfstream Allowance is beyond me.

[sekrah]

Jerry,

Any speculation on how they came up with that number for Soldat?

[RICH]

off his line and some other numbers I can\'t go past the one

[jbelfior]

Mike:

I agree; Kelly\'s a good guy. Just have doubts about POF replicating form to CD.

I\'ve got it down to 2 that I will be using on top, but heavier in the 2-hole. I have a gut feeling one of the synthethics will run a huge race.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sekrah]

Joe, if you like Stay Thirsty, don\'t you love Santiva?

Both are coming in with similar patterns, but Santiva with the higher top (and more space since his top), and a legitimate excuse (surface, traffic) in his last.

[TGJB]

Ragozin simply won\'t give out good figures on an off track, for starters. My guess is this goes back to when tracks had more clay in them and wet tracks really were bad news-- deep and tiring, producing lots of \"X\'s\". Since they have increased sand content (which goes back a long time now) they simply get wet, and in many cases faster (think beach along the water). He simply hasn\'t adjusted.

Ragozin is also the only figure maker I know of who doesn\'t split one and two turn races, but that isn\'t the problem here. The race following the 1/21 big # was also 1 1/8th, and if he didn\'t give out good numbers in the Soldat race, there\'s no telling how bad he had that one-- I added almost 4 more to the Soldat race, if I had done it the same as the one after it would have been even faster, (or they all would have gotten truly terrible figures in the other).

The 2/26 figure (fast track) is even weirder. There is nothing out of the ordinary-- one and two turn races tie together, completely straightforward day. Again I added more to Soldat\'s race than the other 1 1/8th. No clue how he gave it so bad a figure.

[jbelfior]

Sek:

IMO, they\'re not coming into this the same way. Santiva appears to require more time in between (Preakness would have been better??)

I don\'t understand the move for ST of training in Florida, shipping to NY, then back to  Florida. I think it would have been an amazing feat if ST had run well in the Fla. Derby considering all of that plus the add of blikers??

Everyone jumped off. I think he runs a new top Saturday.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[number5858]

What we need is for Jim Covello to tell us he is worried about TGJB\'s and Sek\'s choices going 0/4. Last time Jim was worried about going 0/4 it worked out pretty well. Prime handicapping factor.

[sekrah]

Just watched that 10th race, by no means accomplished horses, but the winner did the mile in 1:40.3 with softer fractions, and came home in 13.3.   It would be scary to see what Ragozin gave these horses as well as the horses that Soldat dusted by 10 lengths.

I seen Cool Blue Red Hot got a 3 and an off 6 after that race, he absolutely must have paired up that 3 or moved forward in that April 30th race at Belmont considering that Redeemed and Vee\'s Accolade were coming in off a 1 & 2.

Again, I\'m not sure how one leaves this one off.   The Fountain Of Youth came in 2 seconds faster than the 1 1/8 Allowance earlier in that day with Nacho Business, Arch Traveller, Washington\'s Rules.  Soldat came home in 13.04 after 47.99/112.43   The other one came home in 13.19 after 49.10/114.35.   Toss Uncle Mo, and Soldat has two races in his 3 yo campaign faster than anyone else in the field and he\'s going to be 5th or 6th choice.  I have to ignore alot of very powerful performances to not use this one as one of my keys.

[jbelfior]

That\'s why I\'m banging my head with him.

Jerry makes a great point.......can he replicate Florida form for Kiaran in Louisville?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[alm]

That\'s a question you can\'t answer...you can only observe the outcome.

The more important...and answerable question...is how can you leave out a horse with his accomplishments at the kind of price you are likely to get?