Workouts in general

[mjellish]

I can see from some of the posts on this board that people seem to assume that you can judge a work by it\'s time, or that a fast work equates to a good work and a slow work means poor work.  That is not necessarily the case.  It\'s not about how fast or slow a horse works, it\'s how they work that matters.

For example, if a horse goes 58 flat in a bullet 1/50 fastest for the day or close to a bullet, and then gallops out another 1/8th in 14 and change, that just means he worked he fast and shut down right afterwards.  If the horse is usually a front runner that doesn\'t mean much.  That\'s how front runners tend to race as well.  If he is usually a closer and typically doesn\'t work that way then it could mean that he is being trained for more speed, or is especially sharp and about to show improvement.

Now lets say that on the same day as the horse above another horse works in 100 flat, 10/50 fastest work for the day, but then gallops out another 1/8th in 12 seconds, and then another 1/8 in 13.  Now to me that is a work that almost always really means something.  It shows the horse has lots of energy, worked relatively quickly for the day and wanted to do more afterwards.  A very, very positive sign.

Given the choice between the two examples above I will almost always prefer the second example.  And it has nothing to do with the final time of the work.

A perfect example of the first type of work I listed above was put in today by Noble\'s Promise. My guy got him going 5F in 23.40, 34.72, 46.8, 59.80, out another 1/8th in 113.73.  That shows he worked fast early, slowed down towards the end of the work and galloped out an extra furlong in about 14 seconds, which is a rather average to below average time.  So while the work itself was fast, it doesn\'t do anything for me other than to say the horse is probably feeling ok.  It doesn\'t say man, this horse is about to run one hell of a race.  Now had he done that same work and finished his final 1/8th just as fast or faster than his first 1/8th, or had he galloped out another 1/8 in 12 flat afterwards, then I would have taken notice.  That\'s not to say that there was anything wrong with the work, just that it didn\'t do much for me even though it was a bullet.

Contrast that with the way Rachel worked yesterday.  My guy got her going 6F in 12.48, 24.52, 36.50, 48.03, 59.37, 111.44 and out another 1/8th 124.17.  On the day, out of the other horses that worked 4F, there were only 3 that worked faster than 48, and one of them was Warbling and another was Decelerator.  This tells me that not only did Rachel run at a pretty good clip early in her work, she really picked it up around the turn and came home faster than she started, plus afterwards she was able to gallop out an extra 1/8th with above average energy in 12 and change.  There aren\'t a lot of horses that can do a work like that, and if any of the derby horses manage something like this they will probably be on my ticket.  To me, this work means that Rachel is back, or damn close to it.  And we will probably soon hear an end to all of the talk about her not getting back to her prior form.  Her loss at FG was completely predictable based upon the amount of time she was off and her works leading up the race.  The stable tried to rush her, plain and simple, and that came back to bite them.  Even I could see this coming before the race.

Another thing about works.  I would pay close attention to how much a horse is actually asked to do.  A horse that goes 5F in 100.00 flat without being asked and gallops out strongly is probably doing better than a horse that goes in 59 but has to be put under a fair amount of pressure to do it and then shuts down soon after the wire.  Remember, it\'s not about the time.  It\'s the way that they do it.

And lastly.  When a horse works in company, pay close attention to how they go compared to their workmates.  Derby horses are usually supposed to outwork their workmates.  That was really my point about Rule\'s work.  Regardless of the time, Mission Impazzible outworked him and Rule shut down right after the work.  To me, that either means Rule isn\'t much of a work horse or he had an off day on the surface or MI is doing betting than him.  That\'s not a guarantee about how they are going to run first Sat in May, but it\'s another piece of info to add to the arsenal as we try to sort these horses out.  

For the record, I also remember how all three of the FL derby 1-2-3 finishers shut down right after the wire, which would seem to indicate that they all were pretty spent.  And don\'t forget that Ice Box never changed leads in the FL Derby.

[Flighted Iron]

Mjellish,

 Great Post.Reminds me of a golf coach who said \"it\'s not how far it goes,but How
it goes far.Btw,speaking of works TAP has indicated he may run DMC in the derby.
TAP stated she\'s been training sensationally and they\'re waiting until after her next move to decide.DMC and the Big E have works sched for sat.Any chance your guy
can give feedback on How she goes?

Thanks,
 mjs

[mjellish]

I sure hope he wouldn\'t miss those works.  For the record, DMC has been training forwardly, really forwardly.  Her last work was really, really strong.  If she works well over Churchill she\'s key horse for the oaks.

[Dana666]

Charlie Whittingham once said, \"time only matters when you\'re in jail\".

[Flighted Iron]

Just re-watched the Bonnie Miss.Imo margin of victory probably would\'ve been
larger minus the shying and swerving.The one thing that really impressed was the
gallop out.You mention the Oaks.How do you like it if they send her in with the
boys?

[Funny Cide]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Charlie Whittingham once said, \"time only matters
> when you\'re in jail\".

He also said the way to treat owners was to keep them in the dark and feed them shit.

He was a HOF trainer, but he had his faults, including the two quotes of his above.

[nyc1347]

ive seen horses do both examples you give plenty of times during workouts.. but what does it matter if they can gallop out faster and only run 6s when another horse may work out slower and run consistent 2s during a race?   These horses can work lights out but when it comes to racing day their limited capabilites can only take them so far if thats what a horse has previously suggested.  how about the horses who run lights out and show a bounce after every top effort?  The workout has no indication of this at all as the horse may work out great but follow his bounce pattern as usual. 2 horses come to mind and its Lawyer Ron (who has a history of galloping out strong) or street sense after pairing negative 2s ( who had a history of bouncing).

 How about a horse who doesnt work good but has tremendous number power against his respective field next out where he can bounce 3 points and still win?  there are many examples but when it comes down to it the workouts mean nothing imo if you dont have the horse that fits right within the field its running against.  On racing day you have no choice but to narrow ur decisions based on a horse having fast enough figures to be there and/or some kind of good projection with some healthy rest and pattern unless hes a monster on paper.


I am not suggestion that people use workouts as the only indication but i can probably name great workouts to bad workouts leading to winning (or running tops)and losing (or running bad with great works or not even being close due to limited ability) pretty consistently. It all comes down to comparison of ability and projection in the longrun of each horse in a given race and fitting that opinion with odds or ROI u r expecting to get for your selection.

[richiebee]

.. When Pat Day said that \"time only matters in jail\", Woody Stephens replied \"try
telling that to someone who shows up at the station at 8:10 for the 8:00 train...\"

[mjellish]

NYC-

Of course a horse has to be competetive in order to be played regardless of works.  Works need to be evaluated within the context of each horse.  I guess I assumed this to be self-evident, but I probably should have clarified that.

[Lost Cause]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>  How about a horse who doesnt work good but has
> tremendous number power against his respective
> field next out where he can bounce 3 points and
> still win?  

Since there are a lot of fields that are not that far apart on numbers especially as more and more trainers use sheets to spot their horses, the key to a race most likely will be looking at workouts, breeding, stamina, race shape etc ...   If all the horses are within a couple of points of each other as many derby horses are, the deciding factor will be one of the above..Does that not make sense?

[nyc1347]

i would allow odds based on the numbers i see to determine that.  it amazes me that people on here have AA as the wise guy choice when jackson bend has 3 faster efforts than him and will be most likely a bigger price..  whatever floats ur boats.  if 2 horses are the same odds and are going forward im not going to pick a horse that has a 2.5 with great workouts and great breeding over a horse with a 2 that has ok works and ok breeding...cause simply the 2 is faster!  All the other factors dont matter imo

[Dana666]

\"Some\" of Charlie\'s Stakes wins:

Futurity Stakes (1953)
Knickerbocker Handicap (1954)
San Carlos Handicap (1955, 1956, 1960, 1971, 1988, 1993)
Arlington Handicap (1956, 1983, 1987)
Californian Stakes (1956, 1957, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1987, 1990)
San Felipe Handicap (1956, 1963, 1966, 1989)
Santa Barbara Handicap (1956, 1964, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1985, 1987)
Woodward Stakes (1956)
San Gabriel Handicap (1957, 1966, 1971, 1977, 1984, 1985, 1997)
San Juan Capistrano Handicap (1957, 1959, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1975, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989)
Santa Maria Handicap (1958, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1978)
San Bernardino Handicap (1960, 1969, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991)
Del Mar Handicap (1961, 1970, 1971, 1976, 1987, 1989, 1990)
American Derby (1962)
San Vicente Handicap (1962, 1966, 1967, 1976)
Sam Marcos Handicap (1963, 1969, 1971, 1975, 1977, 1981, 1984, 1985)
Santa Catalina Stakes (1964, 1970, 1986, 1988)
Top Flight Handicap (1964)
Hollywood Derby (1967, 1969, 1986, 1989)
Charles H. Strub Stakes (1967, 1975, 1989)
John C. Mabee Handicap (1968, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994)
San Luis Obispo Handicap (1968, 1971, 1972 (2), 1977, 1983, 1987, 1990)
Del Mar Oaks (1970, 1971, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1991)
San Luis Rey Handicap (1970, 1975, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1989)
Hollywood Invitational Turf Handicap (1970, 1971, 1976, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1987)
Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (1971, 1972, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1987)
Santa Anita Oaks (1971, 1973, 1974, 1986)
Norfolk Stakes (1972, 1977, 1980)
Chula Vista Handicap (1973, 1980, 1987, 1989)
Beverly Hills Handicap (1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993)
Sunset Handicap (1973, 1974, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992)
Fantasy Stakes (1974, 1984, 1988)
Santa Ana Handicap (1974, 1981, 1985, 1987)
Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (1981, 1989, 1991)
Yellow Ribbon Stakes (1981, 1982, 1985, 1994)
Goodwood Handicap (1984, 1985, 1987, 1990, 1991)
John Henry Handicap (1986, 1989, 1990)
Providencia Stakes (1986, 1988)
Longacres Mile Handicap (1987)
Kentucky Oaks (1988)
Super Derby (1989)

I would imagine most people who ever owned or aspired to own horses would have been very happy in that mushroom-like environment!

[MO]

I agree with you on Jackson. IMO He\'s the bigger threat of Zito\'s 2 and you gotta love 100% career exacta finishes. Hasn\'t gotten back to 2yo top though. That bugs me. Also picked up on Ice Box not changing leads last out while he had no problems doing so in previous races. Will they be coupled in the wagering?


But I think AA is a legit threat as well. Jock says horse was pulling in Wood due to shoe loss (conformation issues?). I say they were covering him up as a good prep for a large field. Either way, until we hear that AA has a quarter crack (a possibility if the reshodding process is not successful) or something negative like that,  we gotta take this wise guy horse seriously.

[mjellish]

Jackson Bend has to get in the race first.

[Rich Curtis]

Dana666 wrote:

\"Charlie Whittingham once said, \'time only matters when you\'re in jail.\'\"

 From an old James Quinn book, \"The New Expert Handicappers\":

 \"Charlie Whittingham is among the best of trainers. He is just as surely among the worst of bettors. \'You just can\'t beat them,\' moans Charlie. \'Anybody who bets on horses wears a size-three hat.\'\"