I'm just sayin...

[what about bob]

Okay, Zen is the greatest horse ever to race on Pro Ride.  14-14 is impressive, no matter what the competition, but was she really such a big surprise in the Classic?  Who, or what, did she really beat?  Were the best horses even running in this race?  

MTB-well documented dislike for the Pro Ride, won his big race in the slop.  Lots of horses have beaten this guy since the Derby.

CJ-big gaps in the PP's tell me this horse has issues.  Has run well on this surface but it's been awhile since he put 2 in a row together.  Last was one of those "looked better than it really was" races as the pace collapsed even more than usual on synth.  

SB-never tried this surface and everything I read said he didn't look near as efficient moving over the track as he did earlier this year on dirt.  Doubt if you'll see him on synthetic again.

TO-Never raced on anything but turf.  Zero all weather experience.

RK-won an optional claimer at Laurel to start the year, went West and flourished on the surface.  Looked over the top coming in and another out of the Goodwood; the winner of that didn't even run in the Classic.

GP-He's a very good turf horse.  Tried the poly once this year and ran fifth.

Einstein-Very versatile horse who was "shuffled back after steadying sharply and was never close thereafter"

Girolamo-3 year raced in an Aoc in September, no experience on synthetic and never tried any of the big 3 year olds.  Why was he even here?

RVW-turf horse, no all weather experience, and had a bad foot.  Shouldn't have even raced.

RR-tried this surface last year and stopped.  No chance on this track with his running style.

QR-disliked the track so much he wouldn't even get in the gate.

AG-won the Hawthorne GC in the mud and an allowance race at Hol on the turf.  1-12 on all weather and I'm not sure if he's ever raced on Pro Ride.  A real stretch.


I\'m just sayin...

[richiebee]

WAB:

Thorough post mortem. Here is how I looked at this race before it was run:

MTB: Canadian 2YO champion, Grade 1 winner.

CJ: 2 Grade 1 wins, 1 Grade 3 win.

Summer Bird: 3 Grade 1 wins. Likely Eclipse award winning 3YO male.

TO: Winner of Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 races in Europe.

RK: Grade 1 winner.

GP: Winner of 4 Grade 1s, 1 Grade 2 and 1 Grade 3. Likely Eclipse winner.

E\'stein: Winner of 5 Grade 1s and 1 Grade 2.

Giro: Grade 2 winner.

RVW: 2 Group 1 wins, 1 Group 2 win.

RR: Group 2 win, Grade 2 win.

AG: 2 Grade 2 wins.

This field (besides Zen) had 18 Grade 1/Group 1 wins, 9 Grade/Group 2s and 3 Grade/Group 3s.

All I have to say: Zenyatta is HOY. Her connections did what was necessary to give her a chance for HOY; Rachel\'s connections were more passive and pay the price.

This sets up RAs epic campaign for HOY redemption next year, culminating with a BC Classic win at CD. Maybe JB is part owner by then, or at least a lienholder.

Vince McMahon could not have scripted it better.

[Dana666]

Here\'s who she beat. You maybe didn\'t see my earlier post, \"Only in Hollywood\"? And believe me you don\'t want to play this game with Rachel either - honestly you don\'t. The waters will be very shallow once you get past Summer Bird and though I never though he was much of a horse he did win the derby so you gotta give him that, Mine That Bird. After that how many Grade I winners did Rachel beat??? Go through the list of races won by the horses Rachel beat!

\"Date: November 07, 2009 10:09PM

In winning the Breeder\'s Cup Classic (of course, the first filly ever to do so), Zenyatta defeated males who had won (by my quick count) 15 Grade/Group I stakes in North America and Great Britain including the following:
Kentucky Derby,
Belmont,
Travers,
Jockey Club Gold Cup,
Pacific Classic,
Arlington Million,
Frank Kilroe Mile,
Manhattan,
Man O\'War,
Turf Classic,
Stephen Foster,
Champion,
Sussex,
Queen Elizabeth,
La. Super Derby.\"

[TGJB]

Dana-- not that it\'s relevant to discussion of HOY, but Rachel\'s list would look pretty good, AND she beat them on the surface where they won their big ones (with the exception of Pioneerofthenile). On your list, the Pac Classic is the only one even on any kind of synthetic.

[Michael D.]

The Classic field wound up being a bit over-hyped in the end.

Rip V was a miler with no lasix. Summer Bird\'s breeding leaned dirt. Mine That Bird is terrible. Gio Ponti was indeed well suited to run 10f over that surface. Twice Over was a solid Group I performer, with 1st lasix. Both Godolphin horses figured to fall over. Richard and Col John did what they did in the prep - run pretty well. Quality Road, unbelievably, read the DRF and decided this just wasn\'t going to work. Einstein checked out.

Not a bad field, but not a great pro-ride bunch either.

[magicnight]

Michael;

As an A student in pedigree I\'m surprised you didn\'t know that Elusive Qualitys score very well in reading comprehension. Excellent post! A model of concision.

[Michael D.]

Bob,

I figured out there was a gene back there that would allow them to get the longer distances if bred correctly, but I completely missed the reading gene.

Given that their dad figured out how to run 7f over dirt in 1:20 flat AND 1m over turf in 1:31.6, nothing they do should surprise us.

[JimP]

Good analysis as usual. But here\'s the part that puzzles me. It seemed to me that for weeks leading up to the BC all I read on this board was that this field was too tough and Zenyata had no chance. Now it seems that since Zenyata surprised   nearly all of us (me included) with a convincing win, everyone is now maintaining that it was a weak field. Why isn\'t it more appropriate to conclude that Zenyata was better than we thought rather than that ALL the others were tin cans  masquerading as race horses?

[Michael D.]

JimP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good analysis as usual. But here\'s the part that
> puzzles me. It seemed to me that for weeks leading
> up to the BC all I read on this board was that
> this field was too tough and Zenyata had no
> chance. Now it seems that since Zenyata surprised
>  nearly all of us (me included) with a convincing
> win, everyone is now maintaining that it was a
> weak field. Why isn\'t it more appropriate to
> conclude that Zenyata was better than we thought
> rather than that ALL the others were tin cans
> masquerading as race horses?


Jim,

When Sea The Stars was in the mix, the field was looking very interesting. He dropped out though, then Barry\'s horse left, and Mastercraftsman went to the mile. After QR refused to load and none of the dirt horses fired, the field just wasn\'t as strong as some of us thought it might be. The way Z inhaled the field though, I still think one could argue she was better than most of us thought. Not necessarily mutually exclusive notions there.

[magicnight]

I\'d add only that a certain subset of the population here expected an 8-wide move that never came to pass.

[TGJB]

Haven\'t done the day yet, but given the figures she\'s been running and the figures Gio Ponti has been running, I\'m guessing she was pretty close to exactly as good as I thought she was.

If the chart comments are correct, Richard\'s Kid lost 6 lengths of ground to the top two, by the way. We\'ll post it when it\'s done, as usual.

[miff]

The pace at 47.4 was a tad slow for the fastest horses in training(rank filly went 45 & change in the filly version friday).Z got the last quarter in app 23 flat, a la turf racing. The fig may not do her justice and I thought it was the fastest race she\'d ever run,looking at the whole day.

Beyer had Z fast at 112 and Rags had both Zenyatta and Gio Ponti faster than TG going in. TG may have Z slower coming out, in line with her previous performances.

Can\'t buy the ink Richards Kid gets,one run synth slug who struggled at the GR 3 level on dirt.His figs are enhanced by his wide running style.


Mike

[Dana666]

Well, I wish someone would do Rachel\'s list. I\'d like to see it. List all the Grade I winners she defeated, the races they won. And I can\'t see how that\'s not relevant - how is who they beat not important? As far as the synthetic factor, frankly, that\'s not relevant because, unfortunately, that\'s where the race was held, and how in the world could any of us figure out to the smallest detail who is a synthetic specialist, who\'s not, etc. and factor that analysis into the HOY decision. We\'re getting into really muddy waters there.

Again, what about the possibility that Zen would have been better on dirt? Still, no one addresses that thesis which I firmly believe is true. If you want to speculate, then that\'s my speculation. Look at her one race on dirt and compare her action to the way she travels on synthetic - she was more comfortable on dirt and ran a faster number, right?

The biggest knock on Z getting HOY would be simply that she never left So. Cal - horse of the year should in my mind travel and perform at different tracks - that\'s my biggest knock. She only ran like 5 times right, too - that\'s a little knock too because I feel like HOY should take on all comers and race many times. Regarding Rachel my biggest knock is simply that she never beat a really quality field, and she never won at a mile and 1/4, the classic distance, and her campaign ended around Labor Day and that\'s way too early to call it quits. In this day and age you need to win the BC classic to really be a legit HOY. How many HOY did not win the BC Classic in recent memory - I have no idea, but it\'s probably not too many. Rachel wins hands down on numbers, right? Maybe you could post their sheets and we could compare them.

Honestly, if I\'m being objective and not emotional, I have no strong opinion. I think as I pointed out you could make a case and some knocks on both of them. I can\'t say with certainly I know I\'m right b/c I don\'t, really. Rachel\'s best race was the Haskell, right or was it the Oaks? Either case she beat one quality animal in the Haskell, and I\'m not sure of any in the Oaks. I don\'t see Mine That Bird as a really quality animal, though Rachel winning the Preakness is still huge - but had the derby been run on any other day or conditions he might have been in a 50K claiming race on Saturday somewhere else. Macho Again or Bullsbay, are they really top class horses? Z\'s only strong point is the BC classic but if you don\'t think that was a good race then you\'d have to say she doesn\'t deserve HOY.

[TGJB]

Dana-- conjecture about how good a horse might have been on another surface or was in a different year is not relevant to HOY. As for your second paragraph, it\'s simple-- you listed the races they won, see whether Z beat them on that surface. I think you end up with a list of Richard\'s Kid.

Some of the winners of the very races you mentioned were beaten by Rachel-- on the surface over which they won those races. Derby, Belmont, Gold Cup,Travers, Test, Foster, Riva Ridge-- just off the top of my head. Also beat Pioneerofthenile, who won his GI over synth, but ran second in the Derby over dirt.

[magicnight]

\"In this day and age you need to win the BC classic to really be a legit HOY.\"

Really?

\"How many HOY did not win the BC Classic in recent memory - I have no idea, but it\'s probably not too many.\"

In the last twenty years the Classic winner was more likely to NOT be HOY than to win the award. 11 out of the last 20 Classic winners did not win HOY. Here\'s the list:

Year   BC Classic Winner   HOY
2009   Zenyatta            
2008   Raven\'s Pass            Curlin
2007   Curlin                    Curlin
2006   Invasor            Invasor
2005   Saint Liam            Saint Liam
2004   Ghostzapper            Ghostzapper
2003   Pleasantly Perfect    Mineshaft
2002   Volponi            Azeri
2001   Tiznow                    Point Given
2000   Tiznow                    Tiznow
1999   Cat Thief            Charismatic
1998   Awesome Again            Skip Away
1997   Skip Away            Favorite Trick
1996   Alphabet Soup            Cigar
1995   Cigar                    Cigar
1994   Concern            Holy Bull
1993   Arcangues            Kotashaan
1992   A.P. Indy            A.P. Indy
1991   Black Tie Affair        Black Tie Affair
1990   Unbridled            Criminal Type
1989   Sunday Silence            Sunday Silence
 
Interestingly, Skip Away won the Classic and lost HOY (to a 2YO, OK, that was a horrible vote that year); and, the next year lost the Classic but won HOY.

That\'s why they call it Horse of the Year.