I'm just sayin...

[jimbo66]

MagicNight,

Last year, one of the \"exceptions\" on your list, not coincidentally, is the other year of putting the BC on plastic.

Whether you like synthetics or not, it has to be a consideration in weighing HOTY.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If the chart comments are correct, Richard\'s Kid
> lost 6 lengths of ground to the top two, by the
> way. We\'ll post it when it\'s done, as usual.


While there is no excuse for betting Alex Solis in this race, that would be a welcome moral victory.

[TGJB]

Michael-- don\'t get me started.

[magicnight]

Jim;

Regarding last year, as I remember it, Zenyatta was the only other horse that was getting strong HOY consideration. But even though she won a G1 on dirt, the vote wasn\'t close because Curlin earned it by going outside his comfort zone (losing on grass & pro-ride) and having a huge year on dirt. Had Z won the \'08 Classic instead of the Distaff, I think she wins it. Yes, it matters ... a lot.

But while the Classic is a very important consideration, it ain\'t the only consideration. If it were, then Arcangues, Pleasantly Perfect and Volponi would have been HOY winners (and, hey, come to think of it, since the Fix-Six likely would not have been uncovered if Medaglia d\' Oro had won the Classic, maybe Volponi should have been HOY).

The thing I hate about all awards is not that they often wind up being political (negative) campaigns, but that they are so frequently wrong (see Favorite Trick and any number of \"Best Picture\" awards). They are an artificial construct that represent man\'s strange obsession with ranking things and add no value to the shared experience. While I would prefer that Rachel win the HOY, I really don\'t care one way or another because that honor won\'t make me think any more highly of her. Nor would it make me think any less of Zenyatta. I think this discussion only drags down the entire enterprise (and I\'ll make this my last post on HOY). What I\'ll care to remember years from now is not which one won the \'09 HOY, but the awe and wonder that these two sparked, whether I was in that rattling Saratoga grandstand on Woodward day, or watching the Classic in my quiet country house, and finding myself strangely short of breath, while my dogs slept.

Bob

[what about bob]

There\'s no question that the list of races won by this classic field is very impressive.  Zenyatta is a very, very, good race mare who beat a very good field of horses who had either never run on Pro Ride or had limited success on Pro Ride. I think it\'s been stated ad nauseum that synthetics are a third surface and should be treated as such.  Some horses love them, some hate them, and the rest fall somewhere in between.  It just seems (no numbers to prove) that there are more extreme swings-love or hate-when horses switch to these surfaces.  Of the 11 other horses besides Zen, how many Pro Ride wins did they have?  3 or 4?  I\"m not sure because I don\'t know how many of Colonel John wins were on Pro Ride.  If you think back to past Classics run on dirt, the winner defeated horses that had 20 or 30 or more cumulative wins on dirt. (Help me stat guys). One more question to chew on before I drop this:

If this race is run at Churchill in the slop and MTB runs by this field, are we giving him HOY and singing his praises like we are Zenyatta?

[richiebee]

what about bob Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 (Help me stat guys). One more question to
> chew on before I drop this:
>
> If this race is run at Churchill in the slop and
> MTB runs by this field, are we giving him HOY and
> singing his praises like we are Zenyatta?

WAB:

The award is for Horse of the Year.

Under your hypothetical, MTB would have completed the year with a flukey
KY Derby win and the BC Classic.

Zenyatta was undefeated. She won other G1 stakes. She gave weight to
admittedly overmatched opponents.

Enough already. Have to go make sense of a pretty dismal Aqueduct card.

[analizethis]

I\'m sure that when you do the numbers we will see that Gio Ponti and Z had the best trips. They both hugged the rail around both turns and with Zenyatta\'s weight advantage some of the others (Twice Over most likely) will probably get a better number then her.

You said it in an earlier post, Jerry, credit goes to Mike Smith for this one. After all his comments about not being to the bottom of her and how she couldn\'t lose he put tremendous pressure on himself to do what had to be done to ensure she would not lose and to be sure he got it done. The risk with a big long striding mare like this is, of course, that she will get caught in traffic but Mike got her to move laterally twice in the stretch (once away from the rail and then outside of Twice Over) and then accelerate on the outside.

Best of luck in the breeding shed Zenyatta, I look forward to your offspring showing the same kind of determination and will in the future.

[FrankD.]

There\'s not much traffic to weave through when only 2 horses ( Gio & Z ) ran at all in the last 1/4 mile of this very overrated Classic fileld

[HP]

Now we\'re back to the \"overrated field.\"  Endless.  I\'m wondering what horses would have had to be in the race for you to declare it was a worthy victory.  It\'s one thing to say you don\'t think Z is HOY but this is just ridiculous.  

HP

[JimP]

The logic seems to be: Zenyatta is over-rated. She beat this field easily. Therefore this field was over-rated. Since it wasn\'t much of a field that Zenyatta beat, therefore Zenyatta must be over-rated.

Makes sense to me!

[miff]

Don\'t think that people are saying Zenyatta is overrated, the field she beat was.

[FrankD.]

The facts are the field she beat looked a lot better on paper than the way they raced. I don\'t think anyone who ever watched a race can deny that ?
Derby winner, Belmont, Travers, JC Gold Cup winner, Pacific Classic winner, RVW Euro reputation, Gio & Einstein resumes, Col John etc... a great field that did not fire, run to their numbers or handle the track. A Grade 1 in moderate fractions that had only 2 horses running with any energy in the lane.

Her stretch run was tremendous, it was great for racing, great television but all the Z come lately comments as for horse of the year are insane !

She is a tremendous race mare who ends it 14 for 14. Even an ardent anti synthetic, east coast bias, traditional dirt & turf guy can\'t deny that.

But I\'ll still stick to the last 2 lines of my \" Done with Poly \" post.
Can you really picture Mike Smith fanning out 8 wide in the Saratoga stretch and running down Rachel after spotting her 10 lengths ?
Let\'s be serious about horse of the year folks.

There were 20 horses on the card that day whose lifetime top was negative 1 !

[JimP]

FrankD: \"The facts are the field she beat looked a lot better on paper than the way they raced.\"

According to the figures that TG posted, it appears to be that the following horses bounced in the Classic:
Girolamo - not unexpected coming off a big new top
Eintein - 7yo coming off a big (but not top) negative number
Rip Van Winkle - ?
Regal Ransom - ?
Summer Bird - bounced coming off a huge negative number

All the others either ran pretty much as expected or moved forward. Twice Over ran a big new top.

[P-Dub]

Why do you just assume Smith will go 8 wide??

This goes back to the ridiculous premise that I\'ve been discounting all year.  Funny how only a small few had the integrity to give me any credit for this after Smith gave Z a great trip last Saturday.

When yet another disillusioned member of this forum starts in with the \"8 wide\" comments\", especially after witnessing his ride in the Classic, its really hard to take anything else you have to say seriously.

He goes wide when he knows he has the superior horse and will win anyway. He doesn\'t when he can\'t go wide to win AND an opportunity presents itself to take a shorter route. I\'ve given multiple race examples of Smith saving ground to win races.

Yes, it is very possible that Zenyatta can run down Rachel.  She was life and death to hold off Macho Again for cripes sake.

For the LAST friggin time, get off the wide nonsense.

[HP]

P-Dub - the level of this dialogue...if somehow they would have been able to dig up Secretariat and bring him back to life, in his prime, and Zenyatta beat him, it would be meaningless to some of these folks.  Just like they watch Smith get a 1/2 path trip and he\'d be 8 wide in a match race.  You can\'t win.  

HP