Repent - He's Out

[Ian Meyers]

Ankle Chips to keep Repent out of Derby.
See Blood Horse Link

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=8993

[kev]

wow guys i did not heard anything about this untill now. I wrote that early this morning and see how the bi/bo marks on TG numbers puts up a red flag for horses. It happen to POINT GIVEN last year and many others.

[tread]

Sorry to hear this, he was definitely an interesting factor in the race.  I\'m still not convinced he could have outkicked Perfect Drift, but now we will never know.

Will be taking a close look at Azillion, Sunday Break, and Saarland this weekend.  Throw in Perfect Drift and Easy Grades and I think you\'ve got a look at most of the like winners.  Hope Take Charge Lady chooses the derby, she will ensure an honest pace (and burn up by the stretch).  Without her, I\'m kind of wondering where the burners will come from given that Came Home and Harlan\'s Holiday both seem to like to lay just off the lead.  Unless Booklet makes the derby, I\'m wondering where this year\'s Balto Star or Songandaprayer types are to set it up for the stretch runners like Monarchos last year.  We could have an abnormally slow pace scenario this year....

[fastspeed]

pace might look slow, then those drawn 12 and higher decide to try and get a good position before the turn.......

[derby1592]

As has been covered in several earlier posts regarding the Derby Future Book, 2yos that have run sub-6 figs TG figs in recent years have not gone on to run well in the Derby. Most (e.g., Repent and Siphonic) never even get to the Derby but even those that do manage to make it to the race don\'t usually fare well (e.g., Came Home and Harlan\'s Holiday). The sample size is still relatively small but growing and the trend continues to hold. I will wait until the preps are over and the entries are drawn to settle on my Derby picks but my money will definitely be on a horse that showed decent development at 2 (but not too much) and has a solid foundation of 3yo preps, a nice, consistent forward moving line,\"Derby\" breeding, and proven ability to come from off the pace. The list of possibilites is shrinking but there are still some \"live\" candidates that closed at high odds in Future Book 3.

Good luck to all.

Chris

[HP]

I agree with your points on 2yos.

As for what you\'re looking for in your Derby picks, I see what you\'re saying, but things have changed. Monarchos, Fusaichi, Charismatic and Grindstone do not fit the traditional profile. Each of these horses (4 in 6 years) exhibits characteristics that contradict one or more of the elements of the profile formed from earlier Derby winners. Fusaichi didn\'t run at 2. Monarchos didn\'t show enough at 2 and had a big jump (about 10 points if I recall correctly) that looked like it might hurt him. Ditto on Charismatic, except his spacing was even worse. Grindstone looked light coming in.

Given the prices on Monarchos and Charismatic, (Grindstone would have been longer without Editor\'s Note as his entrymate) any horse that\'s fast enough to win is a risk to throw out based on not conforming to this \'profile\'. It\'s not getting easier. HP

[kev]

Fusaichi did run at two it was only 1 time though. Past two days now i have been putting together a Derby profile for these horses and what i have came up with is these horses fit in very well. I\'ve got the past 5 or 6 derby horses, every horse than ran in those derbys. Its a point system that i\'ve been rating these horese on. I might put up the total on these horses later on. So far it picked Thunder G.--Fusaichi--Menifee--Victory G.--Louis Q. ( the only on i had lost on so far) i dont have last years derby horses but i will get them here in about two weeks.  Side note on the Menifee it had Charismatic picked 2nd.

[fastspeed]

Chris,

You\'ll have to stop posting because every time you do so I feel like putting more money on saarland.  Ahead of the week-end he looks the best fit by miles (and I know he only has 2 preps and people bring up point given, but point given barely raised a sweat in winning 2 races before the derby last year - no wonder he was short).

others that don\'t really fit profile-wise but are interesting in my view:

mr mellon - walden connection dangerous
azillion - he had the run of the race last, but I like him a lot potential wise
essence of dubai - finally godolphin have a derby runner that stays the distance
perfect drift - big number and rest....this will test some derby cliches

toss the rest.....until next week !

[HP]

Maybe Point Given wasn\'t short. He ran huge numbers in his preps and even if he \'didn\'t break a sweat\', I think they may have taken something out of him. Looking back on last year, how could anyone take such a short price on a horse that really wasn\'t faster than the others? I bought the hype.

Saarland is in a position to peak in the big race. Others have won off two preps. If Saarland doesn\'t run well in the Wood you have to wonder, and if he runs well in the Wood it\'s going to hurt the price. Probably the best thing that could happen is if Saarland moved up a little but didn\'t win. HP

[derby1592]

HP,

Just a point of clarification:

As 2yos, Grindstone ran an 11.5 relatively early in the year, Pegasus ran a 6.5 relatively late in the year, Charismatic an 11.75 and Monarchos several 15s. The guidelines are between 6 and 12 as 2yos. All but Monarchos fit nicely. He jumped up early in his 3yo year and ran several fast races in a row before falling apart after the Derby.

Of course, I use this only as a guideline and certainly take into account the odds and how fast the horse is relative to the field. This particular guideline is really much more useful for the future book since it can steer you away from suspect horses that are likely to be the early favorites (e.g., Siphonic and  Repent). Once the 3yo lines are established, the value of this guideline is greatly diminished although the stress of rapid, early 2yo development on the fast 2yos and the stress of rapid \"catch up\" 3yo development on the slow 2yos could still have a residual effect that may show up in the Derby (which is probably the most stressful race in which these horses will ever compete). So I would not ignore it. I would lean toward a horse that showed some development at 2 (but not too much) and continued to develop nicely at 3.

Just one piece of the Derby handicapping puzzle for a race that looks pretty wide open to me at this point.

Chris

[derby1592]

Fastspeed,

With the exception of Mr. Mellon, I like your short list but not without some concerns.

Saarland – He was my early Derby pick back in September and everything about him: his looks, breeding, connections, running style, 2yo campaign – all scream \"Derby Horse!\" However, I absolutely hate the 2-race, Gothom/Wood campaign. Only 2 prep races and one of them just a 1-turn mile. Secretariat is about the only horse I can recall that parlayed the Gotham/Wood route to a Derby win and he had an earlier prep as a 3yo and he was, well... \"Secretariat.\" Still, a good run in the Wood without winning (to help keep the odds up as HP pointed out) would make Saarland tempting. I will have a hard time not keying him since I have been touting him for 7 months now. Still, given the prep route, I think he is more likely to win the Belmont than the Derby.

Azillion – Right now his connections say he may skip the Derby. At 60-1 in Future Book 3, I had to take a shot on him and hope that he runs well enough in the Blue Grass to give them a serious case of \"Derby Fever.\" If he goes in the Derby (assuming that his Blue Grass is not too bad or too good), he could be my key. He fits the profile nicely.

Perfect Drift – looks solid. It would have been nice to see him run somewhere other than TP this year but he does also have a good race at CD, which is encouraging. He fits the profile nicely although the 6-week break prior to the Derby is a concern. I posted the data on such horses and it is not real promising. From a recovery standpoint, the 6-week break looks great but I just don\'t know if you can get a young 3yo fit enough to get the Derby distance off such a long break. There may be a good reason why nobody had done it in recent history. I know that the European trainers do it all the time but those are turf races in which the early pace is normally very slow, which makes those races really more like sprints than Marathons. The Derby is run on dirt and usually under a very stressful early pace, which requires a much fitter horse to get the distance. Still at likely 20-1 or higher odds, he will be very tempting.

Essence of Dubai- Certainly has a better shot of winning than any previous Godolphin Derby entrant and yet he went off at surprisingly long odds in the Future Book 3. He also fits the profile but, like Saarland he had only 2 preps and like Perfect Drift he will have a 6-week break coming into the Derby. However, his second prep was very novel in that it was at the Derby distance. It is obvious that Godolphin is obsessed with winning the Derby \"their way\" and that they will keep experimenting until they finally get it right. Maybe this year, they have. Also, Godolphin tends to be a layoff outfit anyway and with all their quality stock, they probably ran him in several unofficial \"training\" races in addition to his 2 official preps. He is another horse that would be very tempting at a price.

I can envision the winner and maybe the exacta coming from these 4 horses and all could be at generous odds given 20 betting interests. This race looks wide open and I will have a hard time giving any horse much more than a 15-20 percent chance of winning the race so I will feel \"lucky\" to cash even if I think I have managed to zero in on the most likely winner.

Let\'s see what happens this weekend.
 

Chris

[MO]

Chris,

You make some very good points and I am inclined to agree. The Saarland question of two preps, one at just a mile also bothers me, but then I thought \" didn\'t Conquistador Cielo win the Belmont off a mile prep and only one weeks rest?\"
When you look at it that way, and Shug\'s a decent trainer with a regally bred horse, its not so bothersome.
However, Came Home is faster.  If he wasn\'t cranked up for the SA Derby, how good is he?
He\'s a dual qualifier (as is Saarland), has a win at 9f and gets 4 weeks rest. @!#$ happens (Repent) but if this one makes it to Louisville, he will be one tough horse to beat.

Mark

[HP]

Chris,

I would rate Charismatic, Monarchos and Grindstone as undistinguished 2yos regardless of the \'6-12\' thing. Certainly nothing in those 11.75\'s or so screams \'Derby.\' I think you\'ll see that most Derby winners broke a 10 as a 2yo. Maybe I\'m wrong. There are exceptions. You\'re right, it\'s only one piece of the puzzle. HP

[tread]

One point about Came Home, he will be going into the derby off 2 backward moves.  In the cases of all the other exception horses that bounced at 3 but still ran well (Monarchos, TGulch, IInk) there was a single bounce followed by a return to forward movement (Charasmatic may be an exception to this, I can\'t remember his sheet).

I agree he is a great horse and tries hard, but I think that 0 he ran in Feb hurt and he will come up short.  If the derby isn\'t too stressful for him, I might consider him for the Preakness.

My other point is about the data for horses coming in to the derby off 6 weeks rest.  What good is that data, how may of those horses were actually contenders?  Since good horses are usually running in the April preps, I have a feeling that this data is skewed.  I commend Murray for trying this route with Perfect Drift, this is the first time I can remember in the last 6-7 years that a real contender is coming into the race off a 6-week layoff.  We shall see what happens.

[fastspeed]

don\'t think charismatic was an exception.  In fact I don\'t believe he went back even once (at least not close to the derby).  He had a consecutive string (three?) of 7 (ish) and then moved forward to a 3.5 in the lexington 2 weeks before the derby.