Repent - He's Out

[HP]

Fspeed, I think Charismatic ran 11\'s (the consecutive string) before the big leap to 3. That was why he was such a longshot, if I recall correctly. The 3 really appeared out of nowhere. HP

[kev]

no no Charismatic ran like 4 11\'s from two to the early 3yr and ran something like a 12 in the sy and then ran two 8.3\'s and then a 8.0 and then the 3.2----Derby he ran another 3.2 and keep on firing them after.

[TGJB]

  I discussed Harlan\'s Holiday and Request For Parole with clients(we took a run at RFP), and I told them that once they ran the big # in their 3yo debut the right move was to stop, and not run them again before the Blue Grass. I think the problem is one of too fast too early only when the horse is managed conventionally, and could be handled with different spacing. Whether I can convince a trainer to do this is another story.

[TGJB]

   Saarland looks almost identical to Victory Gallop, who would have won the Derby if Chris Lincoln hadn\'t screwed up the draw, and forced a do-over. I think fresher is better, and that Point Given bounced from his zero in the Derby. If anyone is interested, I wrote an article on 3 year olds that will be appearing in Thoroughbred Daily News in the next couple of days.

[rail]

Hi JB,
I\'m not familiar with the Thoroughbred Daily News. Is that a magazine? newsletter? column? Can I find it online? I do want to read your article.
Thanks

[kev]

Put me down for one also. Is it me or is TG seems like they have been on their toes alot of late?? The service you get from them is great, JB almost all the time responds back to your questions.

[derby1592]

TGJB,

I just compared Saarland\'s and Victory Gallop\'s sheets and they do look very similar. Since Victory Gallop is the only horse in the last 15-20 years to run well with only two 3yo Derby preps that is certainly encouraging for anyone considering backing Saarland.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Today, I think that winning the Derby probably comes at a high cost due mainly to all the drugs (some legal and some not) and modern training techniques that are speeding early development. Trainiers almost have to push their horses a little too hard to get them to develop quickly enough to be competitive by the first Saturday in May and they also have to push them even harder to make sure they are dead fit in order to get the extra distance as a young horse under very stressful conditions (large field, fast pace, etc.).

What is best for the hors in terms of long-term development and overall performance (i.e., light campagin of well-spaced races) just may not be enough to get the job done in the Derby unless the horse is truly exceptional.

As a racing fan, I am cheering for Saarland, in part, because he seems to be a bit of a throw back. A horse that looks like he has been allowed to develop naturally as a 2yo and a 3yo without too much pushing. He even looks like the top Derby horses once did - tall and strapping (built like a college basketball player in the 70s) rather than the way most do today - all muscled up on steriods (built like a 2002 WWF wrestler). It would be nice to think that such a horse can still win the Derby.

I really must be getting old because I am starting to sound a lot like Jack Whitaker...

Chris

[HP]

If Saarland looks like Victory Gallop, who looks like Silver Charm? I\'ve landed on the runner up like three years in a row. HP