Derby Strategy!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The only horse I was impressed with out of the Wood Memorial was War Pass. Had he kept form I would have had him in the 2, 3 and 4 spots with a token reverse saver.

Nothing else from that race inspired.

Tale of Ekati looks light to me for 10 furlongs. Pedigree wise, both light on top and light on bottom. Sunday Silence tail female doesnt awe me. Granting \"Sunday Man\" was a good sire in Japan, but most of his raced on grass. I don\'t think Tale of Ekati wants any part of 10 poles. Add to that pedigree, that he\'s coming off a large top and this bounce could take him to see the Apollo landing module.



jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Michael,
>
> I know those jump up patterns are ugly, it was
> intentional.  And I intentionally didn\'t give any
> pattern where the \"0\" was achieved twice.
>
> Because nobody in this year\'s crop has two races
> in the \"0\" range, except Big Brown maybe with his
> 1 and negative 3.
>
> My point is that of the patterns with a \"0\", I
> like the fact that Tale of Ekati hasn\'t bounced
> and established his \"5\" consistently at 2.  He
> established a fast 2 year old top, early in the
> campaign and NEVER regressed from it. That
> emboldens me a little in that even though he had
> the big jump up, maybe he can repeat his 3 year
> old top.
>
> And I do strongly believe that with Prado jumping
> off and all the negative talk about the Wood, that
> Tale of Ekati will be every bit of 20-1.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Dutrow is very happy with the Florida facility. It\'s been good for BJB\'s feet. He has one blow out planned for Churchill. A little blast over the racing strip.

alm Wrote:
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> Hats off to Dutrow...he\'s handling this horse
> perfectly...much better than some of the other
> trainers...the workout pattern seems ideal to
> me...the only problem: I think he\'s working the
> horse in the wrong place to get ready for
> Churchill.

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

Stick with the pedigree stuff, those of us that read this forum know you aren\'t a TG user.  The over/under on number of sets of Tgraph sheets you bought thus far in 2008 is 1.5 and I would take a second mortgage and bet the \"under\".  

Not that it makes you a bad guy......  

As for the pedigree, not sure why you don\'t find any value in the dam side. Everything I have read and seen says he sired stayers in Japan.  Stamina is stamina.  Not sure without any real evidence I would dismiss the line as \"turf stayers only\".

If you don\'t look at the TG figure, the Wood is not an inspiring race.  If you factor the figure in and you are a believer that a \"0\" with the right trip wins this DErby, and not a negative 3, then you can like Tale of Ekati.

[marcus]

ctc - war pass made a big impression on me as well in that last race showing a lot of heart , although spent and even perhaps running sore or injured in the late stages and in deep stretch , he didn\'t quit for a minute . maybe war pass runs back to the big number if ever makes it back to the race track   ...

[Rick B.]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...the only problem: I think he\'s working the horse
> in the wrong place to get ready for Churchill.
 
If you *really* see this as an obstacle to BB winning (with all other things being equal, other than BB\'s superior figs), my advice is: stop trying to split the handicapping atom. You\'re overthinking it.

[Flighted Iron]

Please elaborate

[Flighted Iron]

Rick B.

  Do  you considerthe bounce theory? If yes,what do you see a reasonable
performance?If no,I will say we are have many firsts of recent.

[Flighted Iron]

Wasn\'t that the Apollo \"5\"?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Aren\'t we talking about a horse that just sat in the Garden spot and was life and death to run down in a slow closing fraction a horse that had been softened up in a pace duel? A horse that just popped a four to five point top, whose jockey departed immediately after the Wood?  

High odds alone won\'t get a horse into the money.

I bought and used TFigs everyday for over a year. I know how to read them. I also know figures are but one arrow in a quiver filled with arrows.

I repeat my opinion. Tale of Ekati will run poorly and miss the money by multiple lengths.

Much like Prado, I think miff believes the Tale Cat is a Slow Rat. He uses TFigs with regularity. Which I point out as evidence that even regular TFig buyers can have vastly different opinions upon what the TFigs reveal. Don\'t be discourged though, you win your under bet. However, the bet that matters is whether the sprint cat hits the board and beyond that wasting combinations upon a \"bounce horse\" and ultimately cashing the Derby.



jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Stick with the pedigree stuff, those of us that
> read this forum know you aren\'t a TG user.  The
> over/under on number of sets of Tgraph sheets you
> bought thus far in 2008 is 1.5 and I would take a
> second mortgage and bet the \"under\".  
>
> Not that it makes you a bad guy......  
>
> As for the pedigree, not sure why you don\'t find
> any value in the dam side. Everything I have read
> and seen says he sired stayers in Japan.  Stamina
> is stamina.  Not sure without any real evidence I
> would dismiss the line as \"turf stayers only\".
>
> If you don\'t look at the TG figure, the Wood is
> not an inspiring race.  If you factor the figure
> in and you are a believer that a \"0\" with the
> right trip wins this DErby, and not a negative 3,
> then you can like Tale of Ekati.

[fkach]

>As for the figure controversy, let me ask this question. If the Wood would have been run a 1 1/4 mile, what do you think the final time would have been? And what figures would they have earned? I don\'t think anyone would have earned anywhere near a zero.<

I agree with this, but typically as the distance stretches out the pace slows down.

[miff]

Jim/Chuck,

On a positive note for those who factor all things, TOE just flashed new early gas(besides a TG total top) according to my calculations.Some believe that a new sudden pace top portends an upcoming big effort.If this was not 10f with 126lbs I might consider it myself.

There has been a long list of so called \"ny wiseguys\" who were in love with TOE ever since his troubled trip win as a 2yr old in NY.Personally have not seen him come off a rather one paced, no gas style until last effort but it was wet and they crawled late.Someone beat me to the slow rat designation but I\'m watching him . Can\'t confirm the explosive TG fig jump up last out after viewing the apr 5th race card until my eyes were bleary.

Mike

[alm]

I realize Derby winners have trained up to the race in many fashions over many different racetracks, but some of my biggest Derby winners were prepped over the Churchill track for more than a short blowout.

I just lean that way in my preference.  I am quite sure Miff is right in noting that Dutrow prefers being there because he thinks the surface is best for his horse.

That\'s my point.  It\'s a compromise for a horse prone to foot problems.  He doesn\'t get to choose the track for the race.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:


Sometimes there are golden nuggets that we find. This one may be insignificant to most, but I find it interesting that COWBOY CAL actually missed a workout prior to his Blue Grass.

There\'s a 2 week gap prior to his final work at Keenland on April 6th. IMO, his sheet pattern is screaming new top.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ronwar]

Big Brown\'s fractions for yesterday\'s :58.60 work, handily, were :11.80, :23.00, and :34.80 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:11.80

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

I agree totally that Cowboy Cal is going to run a new top.  I really think of all the horses in the race, he is the MOST likely to run a new top, surface aside, just based on pattern.

The problem is that with a current top of \"3\", he is slowish.  And of course, the fact that his top is on turf and poly makes him questionable on dirt.

But his pattern looks great to me!!