Derby Strategy!!

[jimbo66]

Buck,

I can\'t blame you betting Big Brown.  I happen to think he is the most likely winner, but I can\'t take the price.

I am relying quite a bit on the Wood figure in my assessment of Tale of Ekati, which is why I asked Jerry about it today.  Because, my eyes told me after the Wood that I don\'t like Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, or War Pass.  It looked like ToE passed a horse that was dying to be passed and was completely gassed from the early pace.  And I struggle with using what my eyes show me, versus what the figures say.  I could have sworn a number of years ago that Harlan\'s Holiday\'s Florida Derby was an extremely impressive race and I was quite sure he was a legit favorite in the derby.  His figure came back light though.  I went with my eyes over the figure.  No good.

We will see in about 9 days.  Good luck!!

[miff]

JB,

Very close to my conversion chart but I use 115lbs and adjust from there.I kinda backed into my conversion chart over several years of tweaking.This is also how I became aware that you and Rags had drifted from the 3 and 1/2 point  scale to scale differential.

Very hard for me to digest a horse finishing the last 3/8ths in app 41 seconds and that race coming up a TG zero for the whole race. Brutal pace, 46 and change for AQU 9f race on that day.I can tell you that within one hour of TOE winning, Prado asked his agent NOT to commit to TOE. Meaningless from a fig point of view but.... .There were other uncomplimentary things that Gomez and Mott said about CV who finished only a couple of lengths off the winner.This was one of the fastest 3 yr old preps, a TG zero?

You don\'t(understandably) consider the extraneous stuff that I do when evaluating a fig but I assure you there is some relevance esp when all three  fig makers somewhat disagree.I\'ll just call that an \"ugly\" zero and leave it at that.


Mike

[ajkreider]

The thing that bothers me about Court Vision is that he hasn\'t been able to do what everyone expects him to do in two straight races.  Not only did he not catch the leaders in the Wood, but he made up almost no ground as they were limping home.

In the FOY, he LOST ground to both Elysium Fields and Cool Coal Man in the stretch, and this after the winner clearly backed out of it once gaining the lead.  Neither of the horses he lost to in that race are exactly being lavished with praise.  

Maybe this horse has some special (i.e. Derby winning) ability.  But we haven\'t seen it.  I can\'t see playing him, even in exotics.

[TGJB]

So far I don\'t see where we disagree, at least TG and Andy. After conversions he comes out around a 1, a 1/2 point different.

If that race had been a stand alone (no other route, didn\'t fit with the rest of the rcaes) it might have been tough to do. But there was another 1 1/8th the race before, I did them both straight up on time, and they basically fit with the day (very slight sprint/route differential, less than usual, far less than often happens). Whatever those horses do in the Derby (various people may read the patterns differntly, let alone that you, fkach and others may add subjective views to the performances themselves), the Wood figures are solid.

By the way, it was 115, but as they have adjusted the scale of weights up and the average weight has gone up, Beyer is going with it. has to, the way he does things, and it\'s right to, doing things his way.

[miff]

Not a Court Vision fan and think that Anderson/Gomez made a mistake choosing him over Col John. His recent bullet work with blinks make him no worse than many others, imo. His 2yr old win at CD should not be underestimated from the standpoint of handling that surface.


Mike

[TreadHead]

While in general, that is certainly true about post race excuses, I think the specific facts that Gomez cited make it carry a lot more weight.  He didn\'t give the general \"he didn\'t handle the surface\", he gave vivid description of the surface being \"greasy\" and the horse slipping on it, as well as not being fully into the bridle the entire race.  That, to me, says he is capable of much better on a track he can handle.

And as for trainer comments, again very true.  But in the case of Bill Mott, he is ultra-conservative and a straight shooter.  Not one for hyperbole at all.  The fact that he choose to repeat Gomez\'s assertions in the post race comments lets me know he agrees with them.  And the recent workout to me shows he is indeed continuing to get better and will be able to put forth more effort on a surface he can appreciate.  Can he win the race?  Not quite ready to say that yet, but he will definitely be in all my exotic tickets.

As for the figure controversy, let me ask this question.  If the Wood would have been run a 1 1/4 mile, what do you think the final time would have been?  And what figures would they have earned?  I don\'t think anyone would have earned anywhere near a zero.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Now, if you are also saying in your post that you
> would be willing to bet on Denis of Cork against
> Tale of Ekati, then you are telling me you aren\'t
> a regular T-Graph user.  While I will give Denis
> of Cork a shot to win, he is definitey a large
> underdog against Tale of Ekati in a matchup bet.
> His pattern is erratic and he obviously reacted in
> his last.  It is most likely too soon for him to
> return to his top.  Tale of Ekati has not moved
> backward yet.  yes, he has the big forward move,
> but off the solid foundation, he is more likely to
> run a solid race (and both have the same top of
> \"0\")


Jim,

I don\'t see it that ToE has a solid foundation. that was a pretty big jump, and he expended every ounce of energy he had to get there.

that is one talented colt though.

[miff]

Dutrow fired up after workout
By JAY PRIVMAN
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Rick Dutrow has said all along he would listen to what Big Brown tells him. After his penultimate work for the May 3 Kentucky Derby on Thursday, Big Brown must have told Dutrow to go jump out of a plane.

Dutrow said he was so amped up after watching Big Brown work that \"I\'ve got to get this anxiety out of me.\"

How so?

\"I think I\'ll jump out of a plane today,\" he said via telephone from Florida. \"I\'m going tandem jumping.\"

That might be a leap of faith, but as far as Big Brown goes, Dutrow believes he is coming to the Derby with the horse to beat.

\"We\'re good. We\'re very good,\" Dutrow said. I\'m gonna go all in again, just like the Florida Derby. I know he\'s the best horse, so I might as well bet.\"

Big Brown, unbeaten in three starts, is considered the current favorite for the Derby, a position he has occupied since his runaway victory in the Florida Derby four weeks ago. He has trained before, and since, at the Palm Meadows training center in Florida, where on Thursday he worked five furlongs in 58.60 seconds under exercise rider Michelle Nevin.

\"He went like a freak,\" Dutrow said. \"No pressure at all. He might have gone a little fast, but Michelle was just sitting on him. I can\'t imagine him breezing any better.\"

Big Brown is scheduled to fly to Kentucky on Monday, then have a short workout at Churchill Downs just days before the Derby.

\"He\'ll breeze three-eighths on Wednesday or Thursday, depending on the weather,\" Dutrow said. \"If the weather\'s going to be good both days, I\'d rather work on Thursday.

\"He looks gorgeous. He is so laid back right now, I could not even imagine it.\"

Other than his jump on Thursday afternoon, Dutrow is not going to let Big Brown out of his sight. Dutrow, who at age 48 will be running his first horse in the Derby, said he will fly with Big Brown.

\"Tex Sutton,\" Dutrow said, referring to the equine transport company, \"has guaranteed me that he will walk out of his stall here at 1 p.m. and be in his stall at Churchill Downs in 3 1/2 or four hours.

\"I\'m going to fly with the horse. There\'s a stall for me,\" he said, laughing, \"and a stall for the horse.\"

Dutrow said he is so confident in Big Brown that he feels no pressure. He said his anxiousness is from anticipation, not nervousness.

\"The only pressure I had with him was when I couldn\'t train him because of his feet,\" Dutrow said, referring to the pair of quarter cracks Big Brown had last fall and then earlier this year. \"He\'s doing fine now. We just got lucky. I don\'t want any changes.\"

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I know you posted on Denis of Cork a while back and I think you may have even mentioned buying a futures ticket on him.

But do you objectively like his pattern better than Take of Ekati coming into the DErby (assume the figs are the figs and that you aren\'t going to question the wood figure).

5-6-0-6

instead of

5-5-5-5-5-0

If so, then you obviously think that Denis of Cork immediately recovering from his bounce is more a higher percentage chance than Tale of Ekati NOT BOUNCING.  

I guess I disagree.  I know the five point move up is big, but the horse hasn\'t moved backward yet.  Granted, it took him a while to move forward.

I guess that leads me to a general question.  Which of the following patterns would the sheet readers on this think is LEAST LIKELY to bounce.

12-10-8-6-5-0

or

5-5-5-5-5-0

or

8-12-6-9-5-0

To me, it is the second.  I guess what I am calling foundation is the fact that Take of Ekati established himself strongly at the \"5\" level BEFORE the 5 point forward move. I am not saying he has established a foundation at the \"0\" level, which would be much more powerful.

[ronwar]

In regards to never going backward, I just happen to be looking at the \'3yo neg sheets\' that TG put out last year which led me to Bernardini who never took a backward step and who\'s line looks very similar to BB going into the Preakness by the way, but I digress. TOE, BB, and I believe CJ have never taken a backward step.  So it got me to thinking of horses who have come to the derby having never taken a backward step.  Intitially I looked at the last two years, the results are from 11 horses:

Tops - 2(18%)
pairs -6(55%)
offs - 1(9%)
X\'s  - 2(18%)

That initial results got me excited and led me to go back to \'97 and gave a sample size of 60 horses:

Tops - 7(12%)
pairs -16(27%)
offs  -12(20%)
X\'s   -25(42%)

I will let you decide what it means, but since I looked it up, I thought I would share it.

[Michael D.]

let me start by saying that DoC\'s moves from 5 to 6, and from 0 to 6 are what concern me most. he\'s backing up when stretching out in paceless races. is he just a back-running middle distance horse, always at the mercy of the pace? will he make a middle move in the Derby then flatten out like a pancake?

as for the generic patterns, I would say neither is strong, but to like DoC\'s better does not mean one thinks he will immediately recover from the strong \'0\' in the Southwest. that race was Feb 18 - two and a half months ago. if he is a 10f horse, I think he could very well pop. ToE has a five point new top one month before the race. bounce? well, I like the fact that this colt was a legitimate \'5\' early last year - he is fast. when I see a very talented colt pop a big new top - a la Bernardini - I am less likely to call for a bounce next out. I also like the fact that Tagg is not the type to crank a horse up for a single race.  what bothers me about ToE was the excruciating effort; he was under the whip before the quarter pole, then ran the final 1/8 in :13.4. how many collapsing horses have ever bounced back to win the Derby? Silver Charm? but what was his half in the SA Derby? in ToE\'s favor, you have a lot of chatter out there regarding the slow finish in the Wood, leading me to believe that the issue might very well be in the price. at 20-1, one of the most talented colts in the race (imo) might make sense.

and in regards to the 2nd generic pattern question, you have very ugly patterns above and below ToE\'s type. if you made one of them 10-8-5-0-5-0, I\'d take that one, as long as one of the 0\'s was in a 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 race.

[Michael D.]

ronwar Wrote:
> So it got me to
> thinking of horses who have come to the derby
> having never taken a backward step.  Intitially I
> looked at the last two years, the results are from
> 11 horses:
>
> Tops - 2(18%)
> pairs -6(55%)
> offs - 1(9%)
> X\'s  - 2(18%)
>
> That initial results got me excited and led me to
> go back to \'97 and gave a sample size of 60
> horses:
>
> Tops - 7(12%)
> pairs -16(27%)
> offs  -12(20%)
> X\'s   -25(42%)
>
> I will let you decide what it means, but since I
> looked it up, I thought I would share it.



I wonder how those numbers measure up to the numbers for all Derby runners?

Jerry?

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I know those jump up patterns are ugly, it was intentional.  And I intentionally didn\'t give any pattern where the \"0\" was achieved twice.

Because nobody in this year\'s crop has two races in the \"0\" range, except Big Brown maybe with his 1 and negative 3.

My point is that of the patterns with a \"0\", I like the fact that Tale of Ekati hasn\'t bounced and established his \"5\" consistently at 2.  He established a fast 2 year old top, early in the campaign and NEVER regressed from it. That emboldens me a little in that even though he had the big jump up, maybe he can repeat his 3 year old top.

And I do strongly believe that with Prado jumping off and all the negative talk about the Wood, that Tale of Ekati will be every bit of 20-1.

[alm]

Hats off to Dutrow...he\'s handling this horse perfectly...much better than some of the other trainers...the workout pattern seems ideal to me...the only problem: I think he\'s working the horse in the wrong place to get ready for Churchill.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I know those jump up patterns are ugly, it was
> intentional.  And I intentionally didn\'t give any
> pattern where the \"0\" was achieved twice.
>
> Because nobody in this year\'s crop has two races
> in the \"0\" range, except Big Brown maybe with his
> 1 and negative 3.
>
> My point is that of the patterns with a \"0\", I
> like the fact that Tale of Ekati hasn\'t bounced
> and established his \"5\" consistently at 2.  He
> established a fast 2 year old top, early in the
> campaign and NEVER regressed from it. That
> emboldens me a little in that even though he had
> the big jump up, maybe he can repeat his 3 year
> old top.
>
> And I do strongly believe that with Prado jumping
> off and all the negative talk about the Wood, that
> Tale of Ekati will be every bit of 20-1.


I\'m more concerned with the fashion of the big new top than with the pattern last year, though both are relevant. ToE holding his form for all of 07 is certainly not a bad thing. More pattern foundation than conditioning foundation I guess.

anyway, good discussion Jim.