Derby Strategy!!

[jimbo66]

Time to start developing a strategy for this year\'s derby now that I bought the TG special and have seen all the figures.  

To me, this year\'s Derby starts with an analysis of the three favorites, Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.  I expect Big Brown to go off in the 2-1 range, Colonel John a solid second choice around 5-1, and Pyro around 8-1, with the rest of the field being double digits, most 20-1 and higher, rather than 10-1ish.

A lot has been said about Big Brown on this board already, so I won\'t rehash it all.  He is fast, has not moved backwards, has tactical speed and may even wire the field now that War Pass is out.  As for pedigree, I have heard people say he is by a \"sire who was a sprinter and has sired only sprinters\".  Well, the TG sire stats show a different story.  I find it at least interesting that Boundary\'s offspring run roughly the same figure for races less than 1 mile, than 1 mile and over.  (granted 1 mile and over doesn\'t equal 1 1/4 miles, but nonetheless this doesn\'t look like a sprinter\'s sire stats.).  For me it comes down to two things with Big Brown.  First off, the value.  I do think he is the most likely winner, but I put it at 20% or so, and he probably goes off at 2-1 or so.  I am not interested in making the bet most likely to \"cash\", but rather in the bet with the best expected ROI.  Secondly, the stats about 3 year olds running big negative numbers.  I know the sample is limited, but horses with more foundation than Big Brown have bounced badly off those big negative numbers.  Big Brown COULD BE the freak and the exception, but it is never a good bet to be looking for the \"exception\" or \"freak\" and getting 2-1 if you are right.  There is much too much money to made in the event that Big Brown is nowhere in the superfecta slots, which is a scenario that could be very likely.

Next is Colonel John.  Four races at 2, starting from a TG \"10\" working down to \"7\".  Then, two races this year, working down to a \"3\".  In six races, the horse has yet to move backwards.  Obviously a great sign.  If the races were on dirt, I would love him.  However, they are not.  The \"3\" he ran last time was with a bo/bi.  That isn\'t good.  The fact that the \"3\" makes him a non-contender on number power is not good either.  The problem is what does the \"3\" on poly equal on dirt?  A \"3\"?  If so, then throw him out with abandon.  If it means something faster, he has a forward moving pattern and is fast enough to win.  A few last points before the verdict.  First off, Tiznow\'s offspring are a bit faster on synthetic than on dirt and secondly, they develop about 2 points on average from their 2 year old year to their 3 year old year.  Both those stats work against him.  Another point here, much less scientific, is that I happen to agree with what FKACH posted a few days ago.  It does seem that synthetic tracks flatter the form of closers versus speed horses and I will probably buy into that when I make my bet.  Gayego moving up, as a speed horse moving from synthetic to dirt, was more predictable than Colonel John, a closer, moving from synthetic to dirt.  And I guess the last point is value.  How can I take a comparatively short 5-1ish on a horse running on a surface he has never run on?  I can\'t.  At least not as my key.  

Last of the favorites is Pyro.  I am going to chose to \"not be a buyer\" on the \"manufactured pattern\" theory and him being perfectly managed to peak in the Derby.  I choose to believe he was an early developer, ran a big number in the BC race which was on as sloppy a surface as I can recall.  He has had three chances as a 3 year old to run back to his 2 year old top and hasn\'t done so.  I know Miff and Jerry have excuses for why he hasn\'t done that and I certainly respect their opinions, but regardless, that is not a healthy stat and as one of the top three choices, I can\'t back him.

Ok, those profiles of the race favorites lead me to my personal betting strategy/hypothesis.  The way to bet this derby is to use multiple longshots in the derby when playing horizontally into the Derby and use those same longshots in the top slot when playing vertically within the Derby.  

Who are these live longshots?  Here are mine, in order of preference:

Tale of Ekati.  I am very surprised that I like this horse, but I didn\'t realize he got as wide a trip as he did in the Wood and I also didn\'t realize Jerry was going to apparently give the Wood a relatively fast figure.  (I am not the best at translating TG to Beyers, but perhaps Miff can make a comment, as it looks to me Jerry has the Wood faster).   This horse didn\'t develop at 2, but was solid, running a streak of \"5\'s\".  I actually think he would have developed because if you consider his race in the Belmont Futurity in September, he hit the gate at the start and had trouble in the stretch, waiting for a hole.  Once it opened, he shot through very professionally.  Anyway, he runs the same figure 4 straight times as a two year old.  He comes back in the Fairgrounds race and runs another \"5\", which is right back to his top.  Now, if healthy, you would expect the horse to move forward in the Wood.  He did, very sharply in fact, if you believe the TG figure.  He moves down to a \"0\"!!  The \"0\" makes him a contender for sure.  One more thing about the Wood.  I, personally have no vision for a horse\'s physical appearances.  However, I certainly believe this skill exists and several people commented BEFORE the Wood as to how much better this horse looked physically.  What to do about the 5 point forward move?  Well, he gets a month off.  He also has Barclay Tagg training him, and we know Tagg can get a horse ready for the Derby.  The two preps don\'t bother me and the fact that is in the 3rd start of his form cycle can\'t hurt.  Sure, he could bounce.  But I am very willing to take about 20-1 on a horse that might bounce on the chance he might not.  At 2-1, I might assume bounce and look elsewhere.  But I think you get all of 20-1 on a horse that is fast enough to win and I believe the long string of pair ups, combined with the horse NEVER having gone backwards, make 20-1 very appealing.  Not exactly sure why Prado jumped off this horse so quickly, but that only helps the price, if you ask me.  I know his closing pace figure in the Wood was slow.  But the pace was hot and this horse went 22 and change into the 2nd quarter of that race.  The track was dull as can be that day and the slow final fractions don\'t bother me.

Court Vision - Again, this is based a bit on the fast figure in the Wood.  This horse got down to a \"5\" as a two year old then bounced a bit off it in his last race, but he bounced with a great excuse.  Trapped and in trouble, he had no chance to run until the final 200 yards, but once clear, he ran down the horse in front of him quite professionally.  His \"5\" was at Churchill Downs, which is not lost on this gambler, nor is the fact that he exploded through the stretch to finish full of run in that race.  He comes back as a 3 year old and in a race where Mott comments BEFOREHAND that his horse is not fully cranked, he runs his top again, a \"5\", which disappoints a lot of people.  So, like Tale of Ekati, you need a forward move in the Wood to get excited and he does make that move, down to a \"2\".  Now, the \"2\" only makes him a marginal contender, but I think this horse is more likely than Tales of Ekati to move forward again.  He has only developed 3 points from his 2 year old top, and he is bred to like the distance and has proven he likes Churchill.  I expect another top and if gets down the \"0\" level and gets a good trip, he has a shot.  I will also take Billy Mott in my corner and of course I love the 25-1 I can get on the horse.

Z Fortune - Runs a \"5\" last year (sounds familiar). Comes back this year and right out of the box runs a 3 then a 2.  For some reason he bounces in the first Oaklawn race, but then comes immediately back to a new top, \"0\" in the Arkansas Derby.  Siphon on top is OK, the dam is a bit of a sprinters pedigree.  I like this horse less than Tales of Ekati because he only gets 3 weeks rest instead of 4 going into the derby, but the horse is fast enough to win and will again be in the right price range, roughly 20-1.  

Smooth Jazz - I probably like this horse the least of the four, but I still like the horse, especially at the price he is likely go off at.  Gets down a \"3\" as a 2 year old, which even today, is a very fast figure.  Comes back this year as a 3 year old and pairs up first time out.  I would have liked to have seen a move forward in his 2nd race this year, but instead the horse bounces.  However, he then comes back and runs a new top in the Florida Derby, getting down to a \"0\".  That race, with five weeks off, makes him very competitive here.  The reason he is 4th on my list is pedigree.  The TG sire stats say that offspring of Smooth Jazz run an average of four points faster in races of less than 1 mile than in races of 1 mile and longer.  Now, his Fla derby was at 1 1/8, so he has ALREADY outrun his pedigree.  But not sure he wants the 1 1/4.  However, when you figure he goes off at 30-1 or higher, you can forgive the pedigree as there is plenty of margin for error in that price.

You have four horses that will all be 20-1 or better and all have a good shot to win.  I really feel that keying horses in this range is the way to go, because of the flaws of the three favorites.

[toppled]

After looking at the Oaks/Derby sheets, I plan a strategy that has me alive with several horses on Derby day-if I\'m right about the Oaks. Bets are subject to weather & post positions affecting things, but if no PP problems or rain:

Oaks-Assuming Eight Belles runs in the Derby & not the Oaks. If she runs in the Oaks, she becomes my 2nd choice.  I really like my top choice Pure Clan.  She has never gone backwards, pairing 2.3s in her last 2.  She\'s also a HFC 2/2 at CD.  I even think she could beat Eight Belles with improvement & a return to her favorite track.  My 2nd choice is Proud Spell, who I will excuse the polytrack # in her last race.  Savers to use include Ariege, Golden Doc A and Country Star.

Derby-My top choice is Z Fortune.  I don\'t see the Ark Derby negative # as too much if I draw a line through the Rebel. Since he started routing, I see a good development line with the exception of the Rebel.  The 2008 races at FG provide a nice foundation for his forward move in the Ark Derby, considering it was 2 months further in a maturing 3yo\'s career.  I see him pairing that # in the Derby.  2nd choice has to go to Big Brown-he\'s the fastest horse in the race & until an undefeated forward moving horse regresses, to guess he will is done at your own peril.  I\'m hoping he does regress enough for Z Fortune to beat him, but I\'ll be playing him equally in case he\'s as good as his -3.2.  My savers will be Gayego, Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati and possibly Smooth Air if he draws well.

The bets (before PP & weather variables)  
Major DD wagers Pure Clan, Proud Spell/Z Fortune, Big Brown
Savers: Pure Clan/Gayego, Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati, Smooth Air;
Ariege, Golden Doc A, Country Star/Z Fortune (and maybe Big Brown depending on odds of the Oaks fillies)
Edit-After Colonel John\'s Sunday work at CD: At first glance Colonel John looked a little too slow, at second glance I see a horse who has never gone backwards and may like dirt better than poly & may be a move up on dirt.  He\'s a must play in my DDs. I\'ve pretty much decided that Pure Clan is the play in the Oaks and I\'ll play her with ZF, CJ, EB & BB, save with her & TOE + adding Visionaire-dropping Smooth Air due to break in training and Gayego (pace too fast-eliminating all on pace horses except BB).  Saving with Proud Spell but only putting in ZF & CJ.

[ROBERT49]

I read your post and jimbo66\'s as well, and they both provide some excellent insights. But let me throw in two more horses to consider, and I look forward to feedback. First CCM-toss the poly race, and he got back to his 2yo top in the FOY-in his second start of the year. Although slower than some of the others, he could be heading to a new top, laying just off the pace in the derby. The second horse is Visionaire. Toss his poly race as well, and his forward moving pattern looks pretty good-and his top is not bad at all. Comments?

[jimbo66]

Robert49,

I would never try to talk somebody off a longshot, but I did look at both cool coal man and visionaire and I don\'t like them, at least not as much as the top 4 I named.

Cool Coal Man did run bad on poly after he got back to his top, a \"3\".  However, I am not as willing to blame that on the poly.  The reason is that when he got his \"3\" last year, he immediately reacted, bouncing to a \"10\" in his next race, which was not on poly, but was actually the the same track he ran the \"3\" on, Churchill.  The \"3\" is not near good enough, he needs to get down to the \"0\" to have a shot to win.  Having reacted twice off the \"3\", I am reluctant to see him now immediately move forward 3 more points.  Especially considering he \"bore in\" after this second 3.  I don\'t see the forward move for a few more races.  (BTW, a horse with a similar 2 and 3 year old top of \"3\" but with a much better chance to move forward IMHO because of his healthy pattern is Cowboy Cal)

I am a little more positive on visionaire, but also don\'t love him.  I don\'t like sons of Grand Slam to get the 1 1/4 would be my first reason.  The second is that I am dubious of the fact that Visionaire\'s best race this year was on slop, which he is bred to handle. The last thing is that I am a bit dubious of that figure because of how god awful Texas Wildcatter ran in his next race after the slop race.  

But like I said, longshots are the way to go in this Derby, I strongly believe and your two are going to be long.  So, good luck.

[marcus]

nice post jim & everyone , on the same page with most of whats being said here , though i\'m considering a somewhat expanded list of long shots who are off of 2 to 3 1/2 point top efforts ( or less ) including court vision , adrinano , recapturetheglory , anak nakal , cowboy cal and eight belles( a point with-in her top last two races ) all might have another move next before going backwards .

dennis of cork ( 35-1 @ oddschecker.com last evening )  and visionaire off the OX patterns , even though both bounced better than 5 pts off better than 5 pt tops , they could figure to run back at the prices . i\'m looking for pyro in the belmont and bb to bounce next . imo- it\'s a wide open derby

my main focus and attention  when looking at the  oaks / derby contenders is given to gayego , z fortune & smooth air  ... if bet today , i\'d probably box those three  3x and back it up 1 x3 under under bb - who reminds me a bit of curlin except that curlin was off a much smaller top at this juncture in his career .

[miff]

Jim,

Several things about the Wood and the contenders.

1.It was raced over a drying out but wet dull track.

2.TOE\'s fig is a top on a surface somewhat considered \"wet\" and well below his norm. I tend to doubt such figs until confirmed on a dry surface, not that he did not have the right to move forward sharply(Michael D predicted, I think)

3.Beyer has the whole race slower than TG and I have not yet got the Rags fig and others I use to compare along with my own take.Even with the very fast two turn pace, the whole race came up slow. I don\'t get the fig based on what I saw the whole card on a tough day. The races for the entire day, on an admittedly drying out, speed changing surface, were not THAT slow overall(check Bustin Stones, know it was a one turn race but horses dont run 1.22+ for 7f on totally dead tracks,NEVER. The final Wood was pedestrian even though the first part was fast and last eighth harness time like.TOE did attend the fast pace though.

4.Watch the replay carefully, it clearly shows TOE under a heavy whip at the quarter pole(top stretch), going nowhere, catching WP, a staggering/drifting horse coming back to him while TOE drifted inside. A methodology top imo,but not fast, imo.You may view Prado bailing as a price positive, but a positive it\'s not, I could say more but will not.

5.Court Vision spinning his wheels crawling home against the clock after doing NO RUNNING. Mott/Gomez \"he just did not handle the track\" Yet gets a very nice fig,how?


On the favs:

BB worked 58.3 this am and is \"moving forward\" according to what Tricky told one of the owners. His feet are cold, there is no pulsating from the remaining  quarter crack, and it\'s just a matter of whether he can hold together until next Sat.He is still a day to day prop because of his brittle hooves(pops quarters). Has he run too fast for his body to absorb at this point is the only question. He towers over this field on the ability he has shown vs what all the rest have shown.Stop for one minute and tell me of any horse in here that could come close to his freakish Fla Derby neg fig.Many are tossing on the bounce theory and I would be a head of the line except that Tricky is the trainer.I have witnessed Tricky\'s magic up close for many years and he is candidly very optimistic about BB as of 9:00 am today.Stay tuned.


Col John (first time dirt) did not move comfortably over the CD surface but has NOT been set down yet.If he dirts, my eyes tell me he is very dangerous at the 1 1/4 mile trip and will outrun his fig like lots of synth Cali runners.


PYRO (see JB\'s comments) there are conflicting stories on his physical well being. If he works decent and enters I can\'t leave out a horse with fantastic internals with so many plodders in this field.Pyro has never had a chance to run fast yet this year on dirt.A huge question mark cause of the poly debacle.Was it poly or is he hurt. Why is he still training on poly if he so despises that surface?


You are following a bomb/score approach which is my favorite when warranted but I feel differently cause if BB fails, I predict a slow rat may win, which one I don\'t know( I like Adriano for lots of reasons as my slow poly rat)

How the horses move/train over the CD track during the coming days will push me in some direction but with poly/synthetic/Tricky,I\'ll bet but won\'t be stepping out.Rooting for BB and part owner Paul Pompa from the old neighborhood in Brooklyn, gambling aside.


Good Luck Jim and may the winning slow rat be with you.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Can you comment on the Wood figure as far as how comfortable you are with it.  If you are right about that fig versus what Beyer has, it is a significant edge for the TG players in playing this race.  However, I don\'t want to base a strategy on a race where you may have marked it is \"?\" and are planning to go back and revisit based on future results (which you have explained on this board in the past that you occasionally do with trickier races to give figs to)

Jim

[fkach]

>>>3.Beyer has the whole race slower than TG and I have not yet got the Rags fig and others I use to compare along with my own take.Even with the very fast two turn pace, the whole race came up slow. I don\'t get the fig based on what I saw the whole card on a tough day. The races for the entire day, on an admittedly drying out, speed changing surface, were not THAT slow overall(check Bustin Stones, know it was a one turn race but horses dont run 1.22+ for 7f on totally dead tracks,NEVER. The final Wood was pedestrian even though the first part was fast and last eighth harness time like.TOE did attend the fast pace though. <<<

There are often disagreements between figure makers when paces are either very fast or very slow because it\'s very difficult to isolate the impact of pace from the impact of track speed on the final time in races like that.

It depends on the beliefs of the figure maker about the impact of pace and tracks speed changes on final time.

Some figure makers incorporate the impact of pace right into the figures as if it was a track speed issue and give out more of a \"performance figure\". That can cause a problem if you add the impact of pace into your thinking on top of that because you will double count the impact of pace.  

Others give out a slow figure and let you figure out the impact of pace on each horse on your own. That will cause you a problem if you don\'t know that the pace was fast/slow enough to alter the final time.

Still others don\'t even know there\'s an issue.

[BitPlayer]

Miff -

I think the most relevant race for appraising the Wood is the Excelsior, run by older stakes horses at the Wood distance 30 minutes earlier.  They went 1.22 seconds faster than the Wood, with the winner getting a ground-saving trip and carrying 10 pounds less than the Wood entrants.  If you assume that those stakes horses ran to their TG figs and the track didn\'t change speeds in 30 minutes, TG\'s Wood figs look sensible.

I think this highlights an issue with Beyer\'s methodology.  Even Randy Moss (who I think does some of the Beyer figs) has said that he adjusts those figs for weight (2 pounds equals one Beyer point) when he does his own handicapping.  Yet the Beyer figs themselves don\'t build in weight carried.  That has to be a problem when you are doing figs for two races like the Excelsior (in which the entrants carried 113 to 117) and the Wood (all carried 123) and have to put them on the same scale.

[miff]

Bit,

Correct re Beyer, however I always adjust from a baseweight when converting plus ground. The other problem is if you compare the weight and ground of the Wood/Excelsior, the Wood is still too fast(remember the EXC is 6 plus lengths faster raw, app 4+ TG points to start and weight was only app 1.60 plus TG points for the Wood runners)


TG may have had the track changing speed and remember the projections are off the norm of runners, so formula wise, it may make sense looking at the Excelsior.Watch the Wood replay a few times, and then the entire card and tell me the Wood wasn\'t a very fast first half to 5/8ths and a very slow last 3/8ths.How is that a fast \"whole\"race?



Mike

[Uncle Buck]

Miff - this is about the best Derby related post I\'ve read so far. Soemone was saying TOE will be 20-1. I say no way - not off the Wood win. I would say Battalgia would make him 15-1 ML and he\'ll get some play from there. I really don\'t see this one making any serious move in the stretch but I do respect Tagg and Coa quite a biut but the horse just doesn\'t inspire. I\'ve been fond of Z Furtune but is another who is suspect on heart. On his best day he might fall into a win but seems to hang too much. Also has a habit of backing up off a top.

The bombs with the most upside IMO are Court Vision and Dennis. Both of which should be in the neighborhood of 25-1

[Sandreadis]

Bit, Do you have the TG figures for Temporary Saint leading into and including  the Excelsior? If so, could you post. Thanks

[Michael D.]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff - this is about the best Derby related post
> I\'ve read so far. Soemone was saying TOE will be
> 20-1. I say no way - not off the Wood win. I would
> say Battalgia would make him 15-1 ML and he\'ll get
> some play from there. I really don\'t see this one
> making any serious move in the stretch but I do
> respect Tagg and Coa quite a biut but the horse
> just doesn\'t inspire. I\'ve been fond of Z Furtune
> but is another who is suspect on heart. On his
> best day he might fall into a win but seems to
> hang too much. Also has a habit of backing up off
> a top.
>
> The bombs with the most upside IMO are Court
> Vision and Dennis. Both of which should be in the
> neighborhood of 25-1


more like 15-1 on CV and DoC, and CV will take serious money underneath.

ToE will take less action than CV, mainly because Gomez stuck with CV, and Prado dumped ToE.

[MonmouthGuy]

Since this is a TG board, please tell me specifically what troubles you about ToEs pattern or figs.  

When you say you agree with Miff, are you stating that you also believe (as the infield drunks will) that the Beyer numbers are the most accurate way to gauge ToEs Wood performance?

Because if you believe the TG numbers, ToE has never gone backwards and looks like he may pair his Wood.  If he pairs his Wood, he should hit the board.

[miff]

Mon Guy,

\"When you say you agree with Miff, are you stating that you also believe (as the infield drunks will) that the Beyer numbers are the most accurate way to gauge ToEs Wood performance?\"


....no, check the whole days races and read the teletimer for the Wood, if you know how to read one.


Mike