Lawyer Ron Track Record Verified

[Barry Irwin]

NYRA has verified that the Lawyer Ron win was indeed in track-record time. Others (Gawd-forbid I should mention their names!) also independently verified the clocking as legit.

As for Steven Crist and why he went off on this tangent, I humbly submit that not all systems that do figures can properly quantify them.

I heard a funny quote on the end of a Bob Costas TV show last week regarding cheating with steroids, Barry Bonds, etc. It was attributed to Mark Twain and went something like this:

There are three kinds of lies.

There are lies.

There are bald-faced lies.

And there are statistics!

To this I will add one of my favorite old ones as well, as follows:

Figures don\'t lie,
but liars figure!

[TGJB]

When it comes to speed figures, some figures definitely do lie. So do some figure makers.

[miff]

TG Trackman Dave Litfin called the time correct by his clock.


Mike

[TGJB]

Interesting, considering he hasn\'t sent US the damn work yet.

[miff]

Not surprising since he\'s doing 90 things up there,Litfin said that SEVERAL pressbox sources matched notes/records and all agree the teletimer was correct.


Mike

[fkach]

If you don\'t mind, when you make the figures for the day could you please tell us if the 1st race that day (also at 9F) fits well with the Go for Wand.

People are making a big deal about the fact that the Ginger Punch race doesn\'t fit well with the Whitney, but they were walking on the front end in the Go for Wand relative to the 1st race (much weaker horses) and the Whitney. I am curious as to whether there is any evidence that the Go for Wand came up slow relative to the Whitney because of the slow pace and not because of a change in track speed. No interest in debating it here. Just want your opinion on the first race etc... so I can debate it with myself ;-)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t think anyone doubts it may be scored a significant top. There was some wide and 2 points worth of clear lengths. The track did play well to a front end pace style (at least for that race) but they ran quick. We\'ll defer to Tgraph on this one. Its a tough race to figure, but I\'ll be very surprised if TGraph doesn\'t conclude that out of the blue Pletch got him to top by a significant margin.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not surprising since he\'s doing 90 things up
> there,Litfin said that SEVERAL pressbox sources
> matched notes/records and all agree the teletimer
> was correct.
>
>
> Mike

[Bally Ache]

The fact is, his previous race at Mth, even though he didn\'t get up, was VERY good.  NYers, as provincial a bunch as you\'ll find anywhere, might tend to see only that he lost out of town.


Additionally, those making public speed figures, if they hope to have any objectivity and credibility, must be very chary about changing a number days after the race (as was done last winter at Aqu).  You can\'t simply say, well, that horse can\'t run that fast, therefore he didn\'t.  Summer Doldrums, the horse in question then, has since proven to be a pretty nice horse, albeit on grass.

Or, if you do, then it\'s tantamount to a tacit admission that it\'s all just opinion to begin with.

[spa]

Chuckles....remember the race Lawyer Ron lost at 1/9,that was the wind up!!!

[marcus]

he\'s a very nice horse and a super-horse IMO if finally straightened out - one of the few that ran like a car before his physical issues arose . now connections are saying they\'ve  corrected his behavioral short comings - so maybe he\'ll continue to put in some late development as an older horse ...

[Barry Irwin]

Very well stated and I happen to agree with your final comment, because there is no doubt that subjectivity plays way too big a part in Beyer numbers.

[TGJB]

Barry-- if you haven\'t already, you should check out the \"Changing Track Speeds\" presentation on this site. People tend to confuse \"objectivity\" with the (false, as you will see) assumption that the track stays the same speed, among other things. All figure making has a subjective element-- especially the part about what assumptions you make.

[miff]

A question for the conspiracy idiots:


Why did TAP select Lawyer Ron to be drugged instead of Fairbanks(beaten 7 1/2 lengths with a good trip( he did chase a fast pace) or Magna Graduate(beaten 9+ lengths and EMPTY)??

I wonder if he puts the names of the horses in a hat and picks out the one to be drugged or if each horse gets a turn at the blood dope, super pain med, like a roster system.



Mike


P.S. All poly lovers, must read about major owner Ahmed Zayat\'s discussion,in Wed DRF, with the imbecile that runs Del Mar, Joe Harper, who admits his concern about what the animal loons will say/do if they make the poly faster and horses break down,never mind what the customers or this major owner thinks.

[Bally Ache]

Read Dick Jerardi\'s column in Wed. DRF.  I believe Jerardi used to be one of the authors of Beyer Speed Figures (and may still be for all I know).  Whether he realizes it or not, he is actually arguing against  Beyer Numbers as any kind of objective standard.

More and more these numbers are being cited as fact when, by Jerardi\'s own admission, they are opinion.  If you manipulate the numbers to fit some preconceived or arbitrary notion, you have definitely wandered into the land of opinion.

If you tell me a horse ran a 93 Beyer you haven\'t actually told me anything.  Tell me what the teletimer said and I\'ll figure out for myself what adjustments need to be made.

[TGJB]

I did end up doing the first and the Go For Wand with a similar variant (1 point different), cut the Whitney loose, but still had it going huge. I don\'t think the pace affected the final time of the Go For Wand-- they ran evenly, and they didn\'t finish that fast (especially those behind the winner). In general, you see very few \"S. Pace \" races on dirt-- the pace is slower on grass, depite the surface usually being much faster.