poly/dirt/turf

[shanahan]

I clearly get the TG suggestion that T relates to P well and vice versa...but just for the hell of it  - my personal handicapping hasn\'t differd a hill of beans since poly cam e into play...if anything it\'s  bit better.  I like it.

[NoCarolinaTony]

YEah....someone who gets it.

Shanahan, I can\'t get all of the critics,nay sayers etc on poly.

In fact I think Poly to Dirt is an strong angle to play. This turf to poly innuendo is just that. Sires that have shown an affinity to produce both turf and dirt runners have faired best, such as Gone West, Broken Vow, Dynaformer, Storm Cat to name a few.

Where as in the past, Turf sires/Horses traditionally didn\'t fair well on Dirt (on avg), and Dirt Sires/horses traditionally didn\'t fair well on Turf (again on avg), I think poly is a third surface now, brings those two elements together more closely like a more common surface, where things are more equalized. To say that turf horses excel over dirt horses, on poly, is pure folly. Just one mans opinion..(Said Like Doug Heffernan the King of Queens).

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I avoid betting Poly, but from my experience upon it I would NOT say that it favors Turf runners.

What Poly does is turn the race into a \"Turf Type\" race. Poly draws the field together and merges horses of different ability.

Kind of like swimming. The best swimmer is usually a hand or foremarm better than his competition, but path and traffic don\'t play a role in the water.

The Poly to Dirt angle is merely a situation where a vastly superior horse has his form \"darkened\" on Poly and then is positioned to run his true race once off the canard. Example? Street Sense. Nearly 5-1 in the Derby with 2-1 Credentials.

(Note, that was 2-1 Pre Derby and Preakness. At this stage Street Sense has been significantly diminished.)

 Further proof? Dominican and Zanjero who were flattered by Poly and are far less horse anywhere else. Then again, maybe Dominican\'s testicle became entrapped again.

We\'re still waiting for Bobphilo to back up his Poly contention. Where are those Poly to Dirt experts when you haven\'t cashed in months?

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> YEah....someone who gets it.
>
> Shanahan, I can\'t get all of the critics,nay
> sayers etc on poly.
>
> In fact I think Poly to Dirt is an strong angle to
> play. This turf to poly innuendo is just that.
> Sires that have shown an affinity to produce both
> turf and dirt runners have faired best, such as
> Gone West, Broken Vow, Dynaformer, Storm Cat to
> name a few.
>
> Where as in the past, Turf sires/Horses
> traditionally didn\'t fair well on Dirt (on avg),
> and Dirt Sires/horses traditionally didn\'t fair
> well on Turf (again on avg), I think poly is a
> third surface now, brings those two elements
> together more closely like a more common surface,
> where things are more equalized. To say that turf
> horses excel over dirt horses, on poly, is pure
> folly. Just one mans opinion..(Said Like Doug
> Heffernan the King of Queens).
>
> NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Chuckles. I never said anything about a poly to dirt angle or vice-versa. Poly is a different surface, as is grass and my experience has been that poly form is just as consistent on that surface as dirt form is on that surface. If anything it's even more consistent, much like grass.
There is always added uncertainty when projecting performance from one surface to another, but one doesn't hear people whining about grass because turf form doesn't always transfer to dirt. The anti-poly lobby is always looking for some lame excuse to denigrate the surface.
Sorry but I'm not going to go to the trouble of digging up my poly results to compare with my dirt results so you can continue to ignore more evidence of the attributes of synthetic surfaces. As if you would look at the results and say "Oh yes, the poly results are consistent – I've just been playing it wrong". In the meantime, feel free to boycott synthetic surfaces. Your skepticism will in no way interfere with my play – please; just give all the childish whining a rest.
Much more important than either mine or your experiences is that the most bettors are very satisfied with the consistency of poly, as evidenced by the increased handle at tracks that have installed it. Something one would never guess based on all the anti–poly whining one sees on message boards. Much like squeaky wheels, losers make much more noise than their successful counterparts, and get much more attention.
Actually I'm not surprised if people are losing money by using a strategy based on dubious dirt biases to begin with and trying to apply it to a surface with even fewer biases. I am not the only poster who has reported having no problem with poly by simply adapting to a method of play in which the horse's ability is the primary factor.

Bob

[fkach]

Bob,

I don\'t disagree with much of what you say, but I think you are ignoring some very legitimate observations, complaints, and concerns.  

The problem some of us have is not that horses are racing on a 3rd surface. There\'s not a 3rd surface.There\'s a 3rd, 4th and maybe 5th surface. I have already seen stats that demonstrate that Poly is not playing the same as some of the artificial surfaces being used in CA and elsewhere. Form may not be as consistent across the various artificial surfaces even if it\'s reasonably consistent on the same surface (and I am not convinced of the latter yet because of the frequency of strange race developments).  There are also some maintenance and other cracks showing. So why the rush?  

Also, I think races like the Bluegrass demonstrate irrefutably that slower paces bring horses of much different ability closer together. That\'s something I have been saying about turf racing for many years now. The finishes of turf races aren\'t tighter just because the horses are consistent and of similar ability. The finishes are also tighter because the paces are generally slower and superior horses can only outrun their inferior rivals by so much in the shorter period of time when everyone is fresh and doing their best. Also, horses with good speed but questionable stamina can often hang tougher when they aren\'t setting or chasing a fast pace like they usually have to on dirt.  

IMHO, despite the safety issues that concern all of us, we desperately need to continue high level dirt racing. I don\'t even consider a horse a dirt champion until he has battled or chased a tough pace, repulsed multiple fast hard challenges and still drew off (or something like that). Any mediocre horse can be reserved for 6-7 furlongs and sprint home like a champ.

At least some energy must be put into making dirt racing safer so it doesn\'t vanish and change the breed into a bunch of even paced wimps with good kicks.

[NoCarolinaTony]

In the FWIW Category.......Dominican bounced off of 4-5 horses throughout the Derby, but he is not purely a Poly horse see his third place finish at CD to AGS - Tis Wondeful. Post 19 plus running wide and wider by the jockey who became dumb and dumber during the race who road him wide when at the strategic point in the race chose wide vs cutting into the rail ala Calvin Borel. its not to say he would have won, but it would have avoided being bounced around like a ping pong ball and running in the 10+ path.

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

fkach,

Your post is one of the few I've seen that raises some legitimate issues on synthetic surfaces that goes beyond generalizing ones own bad experiences to a blanket condemnation of the surface.
At present I am unable to post more than a few lines due to health problems, but I do understand your position and intend to continue the discussion of this complex issue when I am able.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Sorry to hear you are not feeling well Bob. Do get well soon.

[Flighted Iron]

CTC,

 I must disagree regarding\"path and traffic doesn\'t matter in swimming\".
I don\'t have the energy to debate the other issue,however I will state
Hard Spun-Wild&Crazy exacta is my future. best of luck!


PS;any US open selections?

[bobphilo]

Thanks Chuckles. Your concern is appreciated. Looking forward to respectfully disagreeing with you when I'm up to it.

Bob

[richiebee]

FI:

  Hate to disagree but think HS is a tired animal and the value in a Belmont
which could have very little value is to toss HS out of the exacta.

  US Open...The way Tiger is campaigning himself is kind of like the way top
drawer horses tend to run these days in that Tiger seems to be picking his spots
and skipping more and more PGA events. Soon he will only be playing in the
majors plus the tournaments sponsored by entities (Buick ie) which sponsor
Tiger.

  I have always said it will get to the point where Tiger affiliates himself
with one major TV network and will play exclusively in events carried by that
network (plus Majors).

  Another Tiger/thoroughbred tie in is that Tiger now seems to be a speed horse,
much tougher when on an easy lead, not much of a factor when falling 5-6
strokes back in the early rounds.

   Bottom line as I see it... None of the big guns at the top of their game now-
Tiger, Vijay, Ernie Els, a gimpy Phil Mick, slow playing Sergio Garcia, it adds
up to lots of PGA parity, especially with some of the top guns
taking lots of time between races so to speak. Irregardless, Oakmont should be
much more fascinating than Belmont.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I still think that a PGA Pro makes 20 starts a year easy and upwards of 30 or more. For most Nafzger and Pletcher steeds that is more than a Career.

Phil Mick is apparently a bit gimpy, but with the U.S. Open the equivalent of the Belmont Stakes in difficulty and ordeal do you think Phil Mick or any other golfer on the tour would skip that event willingly?

Street Sense is a competive horse and he would run in the Belmont it was up to him. But its not. Men like Nafzger, Tafel and Maktoum control his future now and that doesn\'t bode well for the horse etching himself into the history books. Tafel has stated that he\'s retired horses in the past rather than continue to race them and have them lose commercial allure due to losses. If they don\'t have the courage to allow Street Sense the opportunity to earn greatness, why delay in the retirement at all?

In Golf, a player can\'t be considered Great unless he has a U.S. Open trophy on his mantel. Jack Nicklaus has 1962, 1967, 1972 and 1980. Arnold Palmer won in 1960 and lost 18 hole playoffs in 1962, 1963 and 1966. Both were great and even though they lost some heartbreakers along the way, they were there for the toughest test. How diminished they would be if they did not strive to define themselves as the best of their Generation by competing and winning their version of the Belmont Stakes.

The Belmont Stakes itself is still the ultimate test of a Champion. It will remain as much of a defining event Saturday. Tafel and Nafzger can duck greatness. That is their prerogative, however the winner of the Belmont Stakes will have the inside edge upon being Champion and will have exhibited something the connections of Street Sense know little about:

"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotion, spends himself in a worthy cause; who at best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who have never tasted victory or defeat."

Substitute \"horse\" for \"man\" in the above and it works as well. The horse is willing. The men are not.


richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FI:
>
>   Hate to disagree but think HS is a tired animal
> and the value in a Belmont
> which could have very little value is to toss HS
> out of the exacta.
>
>   US Open...The way Tiger is campaigning himself
> is kind of like the way top
> drawer horses tend to run these days in that Tiger
> seems to be picking his spots
> and skipping more and more PGA events. Soon he
> will only be playing in the
> majors plus the tournaments sponsored by entities
> (Buick ie) which sponsor
> Tiger.
>
>   I have always said it will get to the point
> where Tiger affiliates himself
> with one major TV network and will play
> exclusively in events carried by that
> network (plus Majors).
>
>   Another Tiger/thoroughbred tie in is that Tiger
> now seems to be a speed horse,
> much tougher when on an easy lead, not much of a
> factor when falling 5-6
> strokes back in the early rounds.
>
>    Bottom line as I see it... None of the big guns
> at the top of their game now-
> Tiger, Vijay, Ernie Els, a gimpy Phil Mick, slow
> playing Sergio Garcia, it adds
> up to lots of PGA parity, especially with some of
> the top guns
> taking lots of time between races so to speak.
> Irregardless, Oakmont should be
> much more fascinating than Belmont.

[Flighted Iron]

RB,


  Like Tiger\'s chances every time he\'s in,However I\'m looking for
a mid-long shot.Philly-Mick is considering playing this week,so I
feel he may not be as gimpy as most think.Yes,Oakmont will be very
interesting.Does anyone finish level or under par?

  Appreciate your opinion for HS,however all the reports I\'ve read
seem to indicate HS is doing very well.I\'m very impressed with
HS\'s last 2 efforts.He could have packed it in both times through the
lane,but chose to continue.Imo,the predicted soft pace will serve him
well for the stretch.Curlin could very possibly be the Bounce candidate
here.Good luck.

[TGJB]

CTC-- If I were managing SS I would probably skip the Belmont as well-- there are other championship events coming up, and I would not want to risk giving up several shots for one. But I have to say, that was a pretty good post. Where is the quote from?

[Flighted Iron]

JB,

  \"Man in the Arena\" Speech given April 23, 1910 by
Theodore Roosevelt.
 
  Most inspiring isn\'t it?