poly/dirt/turf

[shanahan]

I think furyk bounces off the playoff.

[magicnight]

So, supposing, if VG had gotten a better post/trip and won the \'98 Derby; lost narrowly to RQ in Baltimore, you - a nice boy from New York - would\'ve passed the Belmont Stakes?

Have you changed? Or, is it these specific circumstances?

[TGJB]

I figured someone would bring this up. In fact, we briefly discussed passing the Belmont and running in the Queen\'s Plate 2 weeks later. But there really was no choice because we had not won a classic, and there was only one horse to beat.

In your scenario, I probably would have run back then, but probably would not now. Regardless, the Prestons would have overruled me if I said pass.

From a business point of view, the Belmont is no big deal for breeders, who want speed.

[magicnight]

Fair enough, all around. And that\'s really the essence, isn\'t it? The 12-furlong \"classic\", in the US anyway, is - the purse aside - without value; an anachronism.

[cubfan0316]

mick is a late scratch.

[spa]

CtC\'s quote is by Teddy R................

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I remember when Old Man Phipps was campaigning Easy Goer. The Belmont meant more to him than the Derby for very good reason. The Belmont is a very demanding race and has more history.

Don\'t get me wrong. The Derby is a marvelous event. From a wagering perspective it is pure handicapping at its finest. 20 horses on a small track with all the peril that can develop in that scenario. Nothing beats it for excitement, however...

The Belmont is a true test. Rarely does traffic play a significant role. The course is expansive and the losers generally have no legitimate excuse. Every horse gets to put his run in and the animal with the biggest resevoir of guts, speed and back breeding generally takes home the trophy.

Breeding for speed is very nice. That said the Derby winners of the past have been no more prolific as sires than the best winners of the Belmont Stakes. Finishing to a tough beat in the Belmont has also been a pretty good harbinger of what kind of Stallion the horse will be.

Some Belmont winners that have done pretty well at stud without winning the Derby?

A.p. Indy
Lemon Drop Kid
Touch Gold
Conquistador Cielo
Damascus
Sword Dancer
Nashua
Native Dancer, to name a few.

Other Belmont winners have had speed and have not gotten offspring to the races yet or got a little star crossed. Afleet Alex, Swale and Easy Goer come to mind.

Many of the Belmont winners have had speed. Easy Goer was a tremendously fast miler. Speed is nice. Its good to breed a miler to a stamina mare. Not quite as good to breed a Stamina sire to a speed mare. Speed alone is not the answer though. Unless you want to be running Jockey Club Gold Cup marathons at one turn 7.5 panels in forty more years. The modern breeders have not been particularly good for horseracing the last 30 years. Guys like Tafel and Nafzger sure don\'t do much to enable them to contribute more.

Regarding whether you would pass the Belmont with Street Sense. Maybe you would, but for some reason I don\'t think so. You might not have handled him the same way they did this year. Curlin is sitting on a 3 point move. To my eye that certainly implies pending regression. I always believed the 2YO foundation with a relatively light 3YO campaign was the way to get a horse through the Triple Crown. Well, Tafel and Nafzger are sitting upon that scenario and what is their choice? With his recent pair isn\'t Street Sense just as likely to move forward now off his 2YO top? I think he is, but I also don\'t believe he is a 12 pole horse. He was all in at 10 poles in the Derby and I think that is why the Old Timid Men chose the way they chose. It has little to do with needing a break.    

The Haskell and Travers are nice races. But I don\'t think they indicate or mean as much as the Belmont. The significance of the Belmont can\'t be overstated. It is a once in a lifetime defining event for those with the vision and courage to enter that arena.

Flighted Iron was correct. That little quote was by Teddy \"walk softly but carry a big stick\" Roosevelt. We need his kind in government today and we need to run races as long and demanding as the Belmont.

 
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC-- If I were managing SS I would probably skip
> the Belmont as well-- there are other championship
> events coming up, and I would not want to risk
> giving up several shots for one. But I have to
> say, that was a pretty good post. Where is the
> quote from?

[alm]

In the equation of genetics the extra x-chromosome in the female transmits a preponderant portion of key elements to the offspring, including cellular mitochondria (energy), the cardiovascular system (heart), and the health of the organism\'s respiratory system (lungs.)  

The male y-chromosome transmits the preponderance of the muscular-skeletal influence to the offspring.

This is true in all mammals, including horses.  It explains why a sprinter or miler can breed a horse with great stamina.  The important physical elements that contribute to stamina come from the female.

Great breeders will breed speed stallions to dams that could get 9 or more furlongs, knowing the combination might give them a classic horse.  The Phipps family has been doing this for generations.  

Think about horses like Silver Charm...the dam was a daughter of Poker and she gave this cheaply bred animal the ability to go on.

You can write all you want about the Belmont being the test of champions, but a Belmont winner that is made badly will be less likely to sire another Belmont winner than a perfectly structured horse who could only get 7 furlongs.

What has made horses like Distorted Humor and Elusive Quality classic sires is their ability to pass along perfectly balanced bodies to some of their offspring...most likely they are prepotent in this regard.  And the same is true of many stallions who emerged from the obscurity of their racing careers to excel in the breeding shed.  Mr. Prospector is one of the greatest examples of this.

This is a snapshot of what goes on in intelligent breeding, but it is basically what every good breeder knows.  All of the BS about the Belmont Stakes providing insights to greatness is just that.

A reverse example: Northern Dancer may have been the greatest sire of the second half of the last century and he couldn\'t get 12 furlongs.  You would hardly call him a speed influence in breeding however.