DERBY QUESTION FOR JERRY?

[high roller]

jerry, could you possibly explain how len gave cir quay a 5 1/2 and you gave him a negative 1/4?

could they have missed the ground loss etc?

thanks hr

[jimbo66]

Len has the entire race 2 points slower than Jerry.  Nothing special about Circular Quay (I don\'t think).  The scale is 3.5 points different, the figures for Circular Quay are 5.75 points apart, about the same as the 2 point difference he has on most.  

As mentioned previously, Len has Street Sense pairing up his mediocre Bluegrass effort, while Jerry has him pairing the BC Juvenile.

That said, I am not really sure what those differences in patterns say about SS\'s chances in the Derby. On Rags, the fact that he hasn\'t gotten back to his 2 year old top in 3 races as a 3 year old is pretty negative.  However, on TGraph, pairing up your top and then running back in 2 weeks, could lead to a regression, so I am not sure there is an EDGE in either figure being right (but would be interested to hear other reads on that)

[spa]

Street Sense has not fired his best shot...........This guy is the real thing.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

All I can say is that Rags calling Street Sense\'s Derby a Pair to the Bluegrass is incredulous. It defies explanation.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Len has the entire race 2 points slower than
> Jerry.  Nothing special about Circular Quay (I
> don\'t think).  The scale is 3.5 points different,
> the figures for Circular Quay are 5.75 points
> apart, about the same as the 2 point difference he
> has on most.  
>
> As mentioned previously, Len has Street Sense
> pairing up his mediocre Bluegrass effort, while
> Jerry has him pairing the BC Juvenile.
>
> That said, I am not really sure what those
> differences in patterns say about SS\'s chances in
> the Derby. On Rags, the fact that he hasn\'t gotten
> back to his 2 year old top in 3 races as a 3 year
> old is pretty negative.  However, on TGraph,
> pairing up your top and then running back in 2
> weeks, could lead to a regression, so I am not
> sure there is an EDGE in either figure being right
> (but would be interested to hear other reads on
> that)

[jimbo66]

Agreed, except I can\'t figure out what edge it gives the Tgraph users over the Rags users in the Preakness, which is what it is all about!!

[richiebee]

Agreed that SS looks the part. You have to feel for Nafzger because under normal
circumstances SS would probably be 2 weeks into a 30 day turn out after his 3
2007 races.

If SS wins in Baltimore, we all know where his next start will be.

  a) If SS wins the Triple Crown, do the dreaded economics of this Sport/
Business demand his retirement? Or does he return for a Haskell/ Travers into
BC Classic encore.

  b) If SS wins the Preakness but disappoints a large throng at Belmont, has he
done enough to retire or is he pointed towards the BC Classic?

If SS is upset at Pimlico, I can not see him contesting the Belmont and I think
this scenario presents the most likely chance of seeing SS in the BC.

[spa]

The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?

[MO]

Nafzger is on record as saying the Preakness was an after thought. The Derby was the goal ever since the Breeders\' Cup. Unbridled didn\'t win the Preakness. Calvin Borel has never ridden a race at Pimlico. SS paired his BC figure and comes back on only 2 weeks rest.

In other words, at likely very short odds, this horse is up against it. If he loses the Preakness, I\'d be surprised to see him at Belmont.

[big18741]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?

The real question is,do you believe in the Derby #\'s?

If yes and a negative 1.25 for HS-you almost have to play him to bounce as the second choice on two weeks rest.

[miff]

High Roller said;

jerry, could you possibly explain how len gave cir quay a 5 1/2 and you gave him a negative 1/4?

could they have missed the ground loss etc?

thanks



High,

Also, ASG ran 6 1/2 on Rags and a TOP 0.5(a half) on TG.

Mike

[high roller]

yes this is my point , one guy keeps repeating that the sheets have the race slower, THAT ISN\'T IT, its a FUNDAMENTAL difference, horses moving forward and backwards, I\'m guessing they missed the ground loss and they are getting sloppy.

[flushedstraight]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?

the obvious answer to this question that cannot be answered is, to quote the rotw Loon Star analysis of Reporting for Duty,

\"At long odds, he runs well; at short odds, he bounces.\"

[P-Dub]

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> spa Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?
>
> the obvious answer to this question that cannot be
> answered is, to quote the rotw Loon Star analysis
> of Reporting for Duty,
>
> \"At long odds, he runs well; at short odds, he
> bounces.\"


Looks like a bounce.

[davidrex]

For decades Rags has given out bounce type #s\' when a horse runs up the track,regardless of ground loss or other quantifying circumstances.
When he reviews said horses lines;you often read where he just dimisses that particular performance and he would expect an immediate return to form next outing.
My problem w/that kind of assesment pertains to the animal that throws in a non-effort and is now regressing.
Another difficulty I have is finding enough timewhile handicapping,to figure if all these quirks in the line are to be considered in my wagering.
Browns\' puts out a tighter line where the abysmal finish by certain horses does not preclude any further reaction to the overall line they are presently displaying.(Plus its a hellova lot easier to decipher).
This is just a more managable arrangement for my handicapping span and is not to be contsrued as a slap in the face to ANYONE!

[miff]

David,

Your comments are noted.I understand your take but performance figures are supposed to accurately reflect each horses\' performance.Bad/slow performances should STRICTLY be scored that way without the fig maker getting too creative as to what he thinks should have or usually happens.

Too often in racing, things happen that are totally unexpected, but yet possible, albeit remote at best.



Mike