Derby views from a Ragozin user

[dpatent]

The Derby is coming up as a very competitive race with 4 or 5 horses with faster numbers but another 6 or 7 horses that will be competitive and could win if they move up 1 or 2 points.

FWIW Street Sense has to be the key based on overall pattern -- never running a bad race -- improving line this year and the strength of his numbers.  Throw in the \"Nafzger knows how to peak a horse for big races\" angle and he is the horse most likely to win.

AGS is probably the only other horse who deserves to be below 10:1 in the betting.  His line is not as strong but his top is very competitive, his line is nice, and he had a small bounce in last from which he could return to or break through his top.

Scat Daddy has done nothing wrong and is as fast as anybody else.  I can\'t get over the Johannesburg pedigree though.  He is more likely than not to bounce off his FL Derby top but at likely 10-12:1 odds will be priced about right.

CQ is a must toss for me.  Suspect breeding and 8-week layoff after significant new top makes him an easy one to leave out.  I do not know how his pattern looks on TG but it\'s a pretty ugly top on Ragozin.  He could always win but anything under 20:1 is a big underlay in my view.

Curlin is another horse that I will be leaving off the vast majority if not all of my tickets.  He is almost as fast as SS, AGS, SD, and a couple others but I do not like the pair up top coupled with shorter rest than he had before his last race.  Add the seasoning angle and short odds and it\'s another easy decision.  If he wins, more power to him but he\'ll be no value.

I do not have a good read on Nobiz.  He has run pretty fast every time but his best number both years has been in his first start.  I can\'t toss him but 15:1 seems about right.

Great Hunter has never done anything wrong but is about two points slower than the top contenders.  He is another 15:1 or so horse.

Same with Hard Spun -- improving line, slightly slow but plenty of spacing for his races.

After these, there are several marginal horses like Dominican, Zanjero, Cowtown Cat and Teuflesburg who could always surprise but you\'ll need big odds on them.

The SA Derby horses are all easy tosses for me.

I think there are a couple of ways that I am thinking about playing the race -- 1) Key Street Sense to win and in exotics.  2) Toss the overbet horses Curlin and CQ and the 6-8 that are just too slow and throw a blanket over 10 or so horses hoping for a couple of prices to get into the Tri or Super.  I\'ll probably do both.

[miff]

D. Patent,

SS has an improving line this year? That means his last race(one of the slowest in BG history) was an improved effort off the TAMPA race.I have reviewed 3 sets of strong data, not TG yet, and none have SS improving in his second start.

Not saying SS won\'t win but I question Len\'s judgement on the fig awarded SS.Why bother timing races if that was \"an improvement\" over his previous start.

Mike

[MO]

Mike,

SS\'s BG was an improvement (vast?) because of his race last year at Kee. Carl is on record saying polytrack is not SS\'s best surface, yet his figure this year was about 3 points better than last year.

You have to look at the BCJ as a bit flukey. 10 legnth win over horses now everyone and his mother are gushing over. Why was it flukey? That\'s the question. The answer ( I think....) is that polytrack moves this horse up. He doesn\'t like it and when he gets on the CD dirt, he\'s like a kid in a candy store - an American pot smoker in Amsterdam - a sex maniac in Las Vegas (add your own analogy here_____________)

This horse, barring any of the usual BS (I have forewarned you all about)is a friggin mortal lock to win. He will pair or top his negative 2.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Can\'t argue with the analysis, the courage to key in on one horse especially.

Curlin is another matter. His breeding is among the best. Mr. Prospector one generation diluted with a stamina type mare can be solid stuff. If your focusing upon dosage I could understand the knock. Look at the breeding again, his closing Ark fraction and check the Broodmare stats of Deputy Minister. The only thing I can find against him is failure to work at the track. Prospectors and Danzigs have generally taken to Churchill, but you never know. He may not care for sandy. Theres no substitute for acclimating a horse to genuine Kentucky terra firma. Then again, if you\'re looking to toss the favorite here he is.

CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> You have to look at the BCJ as a bit flukey. 10
> legnth win over horses now everyone and his mother
> are gushing over. Why was it flukey? That\'s the
> question. The answer ( I think....) is that
> polytrack moves this horse up. He doesn\'t like it
> and when he gets on the CD dirt, he\'s like a kid
> in a candy store - an American pot smoker in
> Amsterdam - a sex maniac in Las Vegas (add your
> own analogy here... \"A Rogue GOP President with a Republicon Congress\"____________)
>
> This horse, barring any of the usual BS (I have
> forewarned you all about)is a friggin mortal lock
> to win. He will pair or top his negative 2.

Richiebee wrote:

Its all good though, Flighted. You will be getting a very bettable price
on a colt from a leading jockey/trainer combo ( each of whom will win multiple
Derbys when all is said and done).The colt has run well at CD. His running style
might be poor- post immune. He\'s been working well in company with the TAPazon
Rags to Riches. My feeling is that potential traffic problems are a much bigger
threat to his success than the 8 week rest

Rich I\'m not so sure Pletcher is going to get to multiple Derby winners. Hes gonna need to go entirely grey and lose some hair to accumulate some real horsemanship. His horses start out fast and pretty much stay fast. I really dont think he\'s brought a horse on a forging pattern to the Derby but I\'ll check that in the Archives. At least that is my impression. I know many think he\'ll fill out the Trifecta, I think hes gonna miss the board even having stacked the deck. Theres no dodging or dancing in this one.

[miff]

MO,

Was not comparing SS\'s poly performance last year vs poly this year.Rags has SS running faster in the BG than in his previous TAMPA race.Not on this planet, maybe elsewhere. Rags tossed the time and evaluated the horses off their usual figs, projection voodoo, in this case, with total disregard for the teletimer.No good/great horse that ever lived can run to their normal performance figs off a 1.16.3 6f split, they just can\'t make up the time.

SS has looked very mortal to me this year and he will need a good set up and a \"live\" rail to run another neg -2,imo.He does follow last years set up, KEE poly to CD dirt, a powerful pattern for SS in itself.


I think SS may go favorite as almost no-one seems to like Curlin for a variety of reasons.Good luck MO,as Saddam would say, this is the mother of all derbies.The most interesting thing about this derby to me is that none of these can afford a tough trip and still win. It\'s a pretty even bunch with a few with slightly better on # power.


Mike

[toppled]

Having viewed the same data,and Thorographs on major contenders here is how I see it.  I use breeding data #s from Mike Veitch on OTB tv and it differers from your\'s yielding a different opinion:

Street Sense-Both have a regression from the Breeders Cup race.  Thorograph has him slightly regressing in the Blue Grass from Tampa Bay, Rags has him with a minimal improvement, but not near the Breeder\'s Cup #.  Breeding says he won\'t make 1 1/4. Between his breeding and his 3yo #s not being among the best in here, I can\'t see him winning.

Any Given Saturday-His top is only competitive.  I\'m smelling an 0-2-X pattern.  I\'m sensing regression, not progress.  No matter what excuse they want to use, he tired going 1 1/8 and Johnny V went to Quay.

Scat Daddy: His breeding # is weak.  I agree with your analysis. He has a much better foundation on Thorographs than Rags.  Thorograph readers may be less inclined to expect a bounce.

Circular Quay: Similar pattern on both. Big 3yo jump from final 2yo #.  But-we don\'t have a real 3yo 1st race # due to Slew\'s Tizzy dumping his jockey right in front of him.  So coming off his 2yo tops, which are right there with all the others except SS\'s monster BC (which SS has not come close to duplicating) he breaks through as a 3yo in his only measurable race has 8 weeks off and is working great. The breeding # says he will run all day, I see a pairup at least and I don\'t know if we\'ve even hit this horses\'s peak yet.  My main concern is a slow enough pace to get him jammed up making his move.  I\'ll be playing him as 1 of my 2 major plays. However, based on what the rest he needed after La, he\'s a total toss in the Preakness if he runs well in Ky.  

Curlin: Rags, slower than some of the other contenders, Thorograph, 2nd fastest 3yo race. I agree in general with you in terms of playing him, but he scares the heck out of me.  

Nobiz Like Showbiz-This is one horse that is a different read on each product.  On Thorograph, he looks like a horse who is slower than the main contenders and is not progressing, even though his 2yo #s are good enough to compete with all but SS\'s BC. An optomist might see this as a delayed explosion, waiting to happen. A pessimist would say he\'s too slow with no progress and not worth playing.  As you\'ve stated, Rags #s show good first race & regression. A pessimist would say he runs best only off long layoffs or he\'s best at 1 mile and regresses as the distance gets longer.  An optomist would take a different view: his two tops in his 1st races show he\'s right there with the fastest horses, he regressed in his 2nd start of the year, and his 3rd race of year #s are irrelevant because he easily won the Remsen and did not need to run any faster since he was so much in control of the race; and his Wood was a winning effort when the goal was just keeping him fit for the Derby. I\'m taking the optomist view-call it either the delayed explosion on TG or a slight move forward from his top on R, and he\'s my other major play.  I believe this horse is set to peak on 5/5 by a trainer who also knows how to peak a horse for big races, hasn\'t even scratched his best #s and unlike SS, has the breeding #s to easily handle 1 1/4.

I agree on Great Hunter noting that on Thorographs he shows a regression from his 2yo top and I don\'t believe he has a strong enough foundation to move forward.  

Hard Spun-His #s are not as competitive as others, his training up to the race has been suspect, and I don\'t think he\'s ever beaten a horse anywhere near the class of the top horses here.  I\'m not putting a dime on him.

The only other horse I can see winning is Cowtown Cat, but he\'ll have to improve on both sheets.  I think Zanjero can drop into the exotics but is too slow to win. Dominican is a tough read due to polytrack to dirt, wouldn\'t be a total shock if he ran ok, win would shock me.

I\'m looking at Doubles, p3s with Nobiz Like Showbiz & Circular Quay as my plays. Saving with tris and supers with Cowtown Cat, Curlin, Street Sense, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Any Given Saturday(in case he doesn\'t 0-2-X).  The horse I want nothing to do with is Hard Spun, even though he\'s bred to run all day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having viewed the same data,and Thorographs on
> major contenders here is how I see it.  I use
> breeding data #s from Mike Veitch on OTB tv and it
> differers from your\'s yielding a different
> opinion:
>
> Street Sense-Both have a regression from the
> Breeders Cup race.  Thorograph has him slightly
> regressing in the Blue Grass from Tampa Bay, Rags
> has him with a minimal improvement, but not near
> the Breeder\'s Cup #.  Breeding says he won\'t make
> 1 1/4. Between his breeding and his 3yo #s not
> being among the best in here, I can\'t see him
> winning.

What about his Breeding \"Says\" \"He wont get a mile and a quarter\"? The fact his sire won the Dubai World Cup and another race at 10 poles? The fact that his sire loved Churchill Downs? The fact that his sire side Pedigree is loaded with Stamina Turf influence? The fact that Ribot and Native Dancer influence his Female side and that he has a broodmare sire that has sired 5 GSW this year? Including Dominican and Bandini two years ago. Then you go on to say Circular Quay is loaded with Distance pedigree with a Belong to Me female side? Are you serious or wishing and hoping? Wouldn\'t it be a lot more honest to say, I\'m tossing this horse because you never know and pool money will be riding on him? I\'m hoping his 2 3YO efforts are representative of his true form?
 
> Any Given Saturday-His top is only competitive.
> I\'m smelling an 0-2-X pattern.  I\'m sensing
> regression, not progress.  No matter what excuse
> they want to use, he tired going 1 1/8 and Johnny
> V went to Quay.

Tend to think AGS is gonna finish way up the track.
 
> Scat Daddy: His breeding # is weak.  I agree with
> your analysis. He has a much better foundation on
> Thorographs than Rags.  Thorograph readers may be
> less inclined to expect a bounce.

The really interesting head to head is going to be between Scat and Nobiz. I know Tagg was shocked he lost the Fountain of Youth. Since then Nobiz has been trained to battle. But I\'m not so sure you can battle a couple of blurs though.
 
> Circular Quay: Similar pattern on both. Big 3yo
> jump from final 2yo #.  But-we don\'t have a real
> 3yo 1st race # due to Slew\'s Tizzy dumping his
> jockey right in front of him.  So coming off his
> 2yo tops, which are right there with all the
> others except SS\'s monster BC (which SS has not
> come close to duplicating) he breaks through as a
> 3yo in his only measurable race has 8 weeks off
> and is working great. The breeding # says he will
> run all day, I see a pairup at least and I don\'t
> know if we\'ve even hit this horses\'s peak yet.  My
> main concern is a slow enough pace to get him
> jammed up making his move.  I\'ll be playing him as
> 1 of my 2 major plays. However, based on what the
> rest he needed after La, he\'s a total toss in the
> Preakness if he runs well in Ky.  

At least he\'s got a number to hope in. Recent trend is last race Prep toppers have not faired well in the Derby.

> Curlin: Rags, slower than some of the other
> contenders, Thorograph, 2nd fastest 3yo race. I
> agree in general with you in terms of playing him,
> but he scares the heck out of me.

He should.

 
>
> Nobiz Like Showbiz-This is one horse that is a
> different read on each product.  On Thorograph, he
> looks like a horse who is slower than the main
> contenders and is not progressing, even though his
> 2yo #s are good enough to compete with all but
> SS\'s BC. An optomist might see this as a delayed
> explosion, waiting to happen. A pessimist would
> say he\'s too slow with no progress and not worth
> playing.  As you\'ve stated, Rags #s show good
> first race & regression. A pessimist would say he
> runs best only off long layoffs or he\'s best at 1
> mile and regresses as the distance gets longer.
> An optomist would take a different view: his two
> tops in his 1st races show he\'s right there with
> the fastest horses, he regressed in his 2nd start
> of the year, and his 3rd race of year #s are
> irrelevant because he easily won the Remsen and
> did not need to run any faster since he was so
> much in control of the race; and his Wood was a
> winning effort when the goal was just keeping him
> fit for the Derby. I\'m taking the optomist
> view-call it either the delayed explosion on TG or
> a slight move forward from his top on R, and he\'s
> my other major play.  I believe this horse is set
> to peak on 5/5 by a trainer who also knows how to
> peak a horse for big races, hasn\'t even scratched
> his best #s and unlike SS, has the breeding #s to
> easily handle 1 1/4.

Having shown no real interest in the last 1/8 in 9 pole events and being out of a Storm Cat mare, why is the 10 marks no problem for Nobiz and an issue for Street Sense? Ok, he likes Aqueduct, but has he finished like a Derby horse and can he run a close stalking race with his blinkers and have the slightest ability to hold off whats coming at him the last 3 poles? Maybe he gets away with easier fractions and improves enough to do it. His Trainer is the real McCoy.

>
> I agree on Great Hunter noting that on Thorographs
> he shows a regression from his 2yo top and I don\'t
> believe he has a strong enough foundation to move
> forward.

If the Bluegrass was a fair bill, you have to factor this horse.
 
> Hard Spun-His #s are not as competitive as others,
> his training up to the race has been suspect, and
> I don\'t think he\'s ever beaten a horse anywhere
> near the class of the top horses here.  I\'m not
> putting a dime on him.

You threw one out, congratulations. But are you sure you picked the right one to toss?

>
> The only other horse I can see winning is Cowtown
> Cat, but he\'ll have to improve on both sheets.  I
> think Zanjero can drop into the exotics but is too
> slow to win. Dominican is a tough read due to
> polytrack to dirt, wouldn\'t be a total shock if he
> ran ok, win would shock me.
>
> I\'m looking at Doubles, p3s with Nobiz Like
> Showbiz & Circular Quay as my plays. Saving with
> tris and supers with Cowtown Cat, Curlin, Street
> Sense, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Any Given
> Saturday(in case he doesn\'t 0-2-X).  The horse I
> want nothing to do with is Hard Spun, even though
> he\'s bred to run all day.

You\'re betting like Len Friedman...focus some and come back when you\'re really down to your best 1 or 2. You don\'t cover the field in the Derby.

[toppled]

They haven\'t drawn post positions yet, if neither gets a bad draw Nobiz & CQ are the only win plays in Win, DD & P-3 pools.  The others -savers- are for $1 tris & supers, I\'m linking them with my 2 top choices.  I don\'t think Nobiz & CQ will run 1-2 due to different race developments necessary for each to reach full potential so exacta play will be limited.    
I\'m no breeding expert, the guy on OTB is, and his #s say Street Sense will have a very difficult time with the distance.  His #s based on 10 for 10f are Street Sense 8.725, Circular Quay 10.20, translated SS\'s best distance would be 8.725 f, and CQ\'s would be 10.20 f. Nobiz is 9.80. We\'ll see in 6 days.

[MO]

Hey Chuck,

I have ADHD. Where the F am I supposed to start with this long winded post,eh?

MO

P.S. One word answers (or there abouts) would do you well.

[dpatent]

Toppled -- Do you have a link for the breeding analysis you cited.  I do find it interesting that some analysts think SS can run all day and CQ is suspect and others say just the opposite.  What does that say about the science of breeding analysis?

[Silver Charm]

Mo agreed but this is also a guy who has saved every email for the last eight years. Thumbs up on your stance on SS. At least you are out there.

If SS conditioned forward on Ragozin then that is most likely who they will be picking.

Pletcher blazed Cowtown Cat in his work so he is sending (there may be a sale involving this horse this week). Good there will be heavy pace. His former boss (Lukas) taught him well.

A rapid pace does not bode well for NoBiz and Hard Spun. Think Pletcher knows that. Three of his AGS, CQ and Scat Daddy benefit from that. Think Pletcher knows that.

Curlin will be looking real animals in the eye from beginning to end this time. Don\'t blink.

I have my key and it will not be any of the above. See everybody in the IRS Line.

[MO]

IN THIS DAY AND AGE, SMART HANDICAPPERS TAKE THE POSITION THAT THERE AINT A HORSE ON THE PLANET THAT IS BRED FOR OR CAN GET 10F, DOSAGE NOT WITHSTANDING.

Therefore you bet the fastest horse and have your bitches/excuses ready in advance.

At the top of my list will be : Borel couldn\'t ride a broomstick around my back yard. I have yet to cash a ticket on any horse he ever rode. Doesn\'t matter if he\'s the lone speed or 20 legnths faster than the field, he\'s a f-up. But he\'s also a dipsh#t. He rides more 50-1 shot winners than I can count.............If he\'s that lucky, and that dumb at the same time, I\'m betting he brings a buzzer to the Derby. Not that he would use it, but just for insurance. He want\'s this race. This horse should be 2 -1 just on my bullsh*t. winky winky

[MO]

SC, You make EXCELLENT points to the experienced handicapper! Is Your longshot from MD? Mine is.

[MO]

P. S. Last time I was this confident in Derby was with Siver Charm.