Derby views from a Ragozin user

[toppled]

He hasn\'t done them all. I think they were on Capitalotb.com last year on derby day.  These are what he\'s done so far.  Remember, 10.0 is best.  Some go over, most go under.  Anything less than 9.0 means he doesn\'t expect the horse to get 10.0 f
Scat Daddy 8.80
Nobiz Like Showbiz 9.80
Hard Spun 9.85
Street Sense 8.725
Any Given Saturday 9.30
Great Hunter 10.35
Stormello 9.20
Circular Quay 10.20
Curlin 9.125
Cobalt Blue 9.725
Liquidity 9.85
Cowtown Cat 9.00
Tiago 9.375
Dominican 9.85
Teuflesberg 9.05
Zanjero 9.65
Sam P 9.05
Storm in May 9.40

[richiebee]

Ctc:

As always, I appreciate the contrarian handicapping views. And about those early
morning songwriting ventures, I want you to know that Phil Spector called me
this morning and he wants you to take over his music biz until the jury out in
California figures out a way to find him not guilty.

With regards to TAP, the man shows up first weekend in May with a $1.9 million
yearling purchase for the Oaks, a $1.1 million yearling purchase for the Derby
and a $1.5 million 2YO in training purchase for the Derby. As long as he keeps
himself stocked with this type of horseflesh (no Green Monkey jokes please) he
will eventually prevail.

Nice Derby line by the way--Teufle shorter odds than CQ and AGS and 125/1 on
the Blue Grass winner. BRILLIANT!

[BitPlayer]

SC -

Pletcher said in his Bloodhorse interview that Cowtown Cat was on the engine in Illinois only because the pace was slow, and that he expected him to be in the second flight on 5/5.  Do you think he\'s blowing smoke?

Off Topic:  In my Internet meanderings this morn I read a blog post from someone using your moniker who had qualified for the NHC yesterday.  Was that you or an imitation?

[Silver Charm]

This horse has send and stop written all over him. Pletcher knows what he is doing.

Think Honour and Glory.

No that wasn\'t me in the NHC or on the blog. But if he said a lot of nasty things about a lot really good people.

Then I want credit for it..........

[dpatent]

Thanks, Toppled.  That would definitely be cause for concern if accurate.  Does anybody know how this analysis has held up in the past for the Derby?  In particular, I wonder what Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin, and Monarchos looked like.

[toppled]

I know it worked for years, but didn\'t work that well in the Giacomo and Smarty Jones Derbies.  I don\'t recall the #s and whether they were below 9-I think Smarty wasn\'t anywhere as low as Street Sense, but there were a lot higher #s. Still, Smarty was so much faster than the rest, it really didn\'t come down to breeding.  Giacomo was the only one I remember who had a low number (I don\'t recall what it was,but it was in the bottom 3 and possibly the lowest, I really didn\'t know about the 9 cutoff until this year so I never paid attention before) but that race defied just about every handicapping angle other than started working out better in the mornings and ran the race of his life. This year the #s are so close, I\'m taking breeding into account more to separate them, so I\'m paying closer attention to the details of the #s.  Last year the method was a great success.  Barbaro had a good #, but I had Barbaro more on class and a pattern I liked that made me think he was explosive. I didn\'t bother using Bluegrass Cat  even though his breeding # was good, because I tossed him off his Bluegrass-my mistake. The OTB guy loved Barbaro last year & I\'m sure he cashed an exacta because he loved Bluegrass Cat\'s breeding. I don\'t think 10f breeding can speed up a slow horse, but lack of it can slow down a fast horse when the #s we\'re looking at are at shorter distances.  I didn\'t bet the Derby the year Smarty Jones won it, so I\'m not sure what I would have done if I had analyzed it.  
The way he does it he goes back multiple generations on both sides of the horse\'s lineage assigns a # to the sire and specific mare and averages them.  For example: Any Given Saturday-Sire 10.0, mare 8.60 ave 9.30.  I don\'t have the breakdown for Street Sense since I wasn\'t watching the show that day when he gave all the details, so I only have the total #.  This year he did detailed study on all but the last 4 he did-Teuflesberg, Zanjero, Sam P and Storm In May-those he did a shorter lineage check going back less generations.

[Flighted Iron]

Miss the board? Just by chance,you\'re not an american currently visiting Amsterdam?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No, I\'m a beer guy. In fact I\'m going to have one now I think. Theres at least 3 horses in this race better than anything Pletcher has and probably a fourth. That fourth horse is Nobiz. Theres also a couple of longshots that have a money chance. Tony\'s Dominican for example, but I really dont like his number power. Some folks think theres value in tossing the fastest horses. I think theres value in tossing Pletcher in this race. Thats the way I\'ll go. One of his bothers me some and I may include him some. Certainly not in first.

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Miss the board? Just by chance,you\'re not an
> american currently visiting Amsterdam?

[MO]

Not currently.............unless you have a 3 month layoff angle you\'d like to share......

[MO]

Ya know Argarn, I don\'t know why everybody says your so dumb. NoBiz  would be the horse I would play as the upsetter. Except that he\'s only 4 lgnths slower  on his best to SS.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Mo agreed but this is also a guy who has saved
> every email for the last eight years. Thumbs up on
> your stance on SS. At least you are out there.

Silver, I didn\'t save any emails or messages. Tgraph has a \'search\' function. I just understand their board is all...lol
 
> If SS conditioned forward on Ragozin then that is
> most likely who they will be picking.

Theres really no way to determine a legitimate figure for the Bluegrass. Thats not stated for effect. The track was/is as capricious and fickle a surface as this game has ever endured. The Bluegrass was a conditioning race for four horses, now those horses move to a surface where their efforts can be factored.
 
> Pletcher blazed Cowtown Cat in his work so he is
> sending (there may be a sale involving this horse
> this week). Good there will be heavy pace. His
> former boss (Lukas) taught him well.

He blazed Cowtown \"in tandem\" with Turfing Magnificent Song and Cowtown put a nose on her at the wire. No other Derby starters worked at Polyexington that day so it was a tuff fraction to figure. In my opinion Cowtown is Pletchers best chance and I don\'t think he\'s intending a \"lead or bust\" strategy with him.

The only other horse to worry about re: pace is Stormello. Currin says they will change tactics and rate. If they do Der Teufle inherits the wind, provided he breaks cleanly, which has been a major problem for him. I\'m much less confident about Stormello changing tactics. If Stormello wants the lead its probably his for the taking, but if he does change tactics I could see Teufles where he wants to be. Upon the lead, on a carrying strip, trying to stretch that speed with his raced in foundation all the way to the wire. I think the good horses will get him, but it will be very entertaining.

> A rapid pace does not bode well for NoBiz and Hard
> Spun. Think Pletcher knows that. Three of his AGS,
> CQ and Scat Daddy benefit from that. Think
> Pletcher knows that.

Hard Spun has been schooled to run just off the pace. \"Barbaro Like\". He\'ll probably get first run at the pace horses. Nobiz has wanted to run up front and to my eye the blinkers will keep him there.
 
> Curlin will be looking real animals in the eye
> from beginning to end this time. Don\'t blink.

Depending upon post draw Curlin will be about 2 or 3 lengths behind Hard Spun. Curlin will get second run at the leaders.
 
> I have my key and it will not be any of the above.
> See everybody in the IRS Line.

Zanjero will look good with a quarter to go.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

There is no science to breeding. \"The OTB\" guy has only Circular Quay and Great Hunter qualifying. Obviously he\'s fixating upon the sires again.

With Pedigree you look how far and in what Class the Sire ran. Factor the same for the Dam and then consider the Get of BOTH. You factor that in consideration of how the horse under review has ran at distance and lastly you look at the remote genetic threads. There is no science and Street Sense looks better than Circular Quay. Zanjero was getting to Quay in the Louisiana Derby. Not with a rush but he came from farther back and was making ground and that race knocked Quay off his schedule.

dpatent Wrote:
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> Toppled -- Do you have a link for the breeding
> analysis you cited.  I do find it interesting that
> some analysts think SS can run all day and CQ is
> suspect and others say just the opposite.  What
> does that say about the science of breeding
> analysis?

[Silver Charm]

CtC,

Calling the :58.91 move \"as good as a horse could work,\" trainer Todd Pletcher expressed great pleasure with the five-furlong performance of Cowtown Cat over the Keeneland Polytrack Saturday morning. According to Pletcher, Cowtown Cat clocked the last quarter in :23.03, while galloping out in 1:11.69.

Remember this was a work so shave at least 2 seconds off each split. Also go back and look up Honour and Glory, Serenas Song, Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild and see who owned and trained all of the above and see if there is a common thread.

I hope the horses and some shaky riders are placed exactly where you say they will be. Pletcher is using Prado, Gomez and Velasquez. This is not Mo, Larry and Curly.

Zanjero almost X\'ed in his last.

No Thanks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t remember owners, but I usually remember who trained. I\'m relying strictly upon the grey matter here so forgive me if I\'m wrong but here goes...

Honour and Glory, Serena\'s Song and Going Wild were trained by Lukas.

Spanish Chestnut by Biacone

Chestnut and Going Wild were Giacomos year werent\' they? Hot pace fried both I think. Can\'t remember now with certainty. But I\'m pretty sure I got the trainers right.

Cowtown is Winstar and Maybe Pletcher does intend to sacrifice their horse to a speed duel.

With the works, I\'m really not sure how much time can be shaved. They start them off at full gallops before they time and if they are finishing at the wire the home stretch can be exceedingly fast there. As fast as the backside can be slow. Absolutely crazy place for factoring time. As Frankie Goes to Hollywood says \"Relax don\'t do it\" That said I do think Cowtown will give Pletcher his best finish.

Regarding Jockeys, Im not one to put too much stock in them. The ones you listed are not bad. I think Jara is going to beat them all though.

CtC

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> Calling the :58.91 move \"as good as a horse could
> work,\" trainer Todd Pletcher expressed great
> pleasure with the five-furlong performance of
> Cowtown Cat over the Keeneland Polytrack Saturday
> morning. According to Pletcher, Cowtown Cat
> clocked the last quarter in :23.03, while
> galloping out in 1:11.69.
>
> Remember this was a work so shave at least 2
> seconds off each split. Also go back and look up
> Honour and Glory, Serenas Song, Spanish Chestnut,
> Going Wild and see who owned and trained all of
> the above and see if there is a common thread.
>
> I hope the horses and some shaky riders are placed
> exactly where you say they will be. Pletcher is
> using Prado, Gomez and Velasquez. This is not Mo,
> Larry and Curly.
>
> Zanjero almost X\'ed in his last.
>
> No Thanks.

[Silver Charm]

Let me just say this.

If the King (D. Wayne) himself didn\'t walk down to Pletchers barn somewhere in the last week or so and grab him by his right ear and turn it sideways and say,

\"Listen you dumbass didn\'t I teach you correctly on what it takes to win this race\"

Then Mike Tabor did.