3 YO NEG Top Study

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

You mention in your analysis since 2000 31 horses regressed after achieving a top of -1 in the first six months of their 3 yo year. Can you tell me how many of those were at a mile or less? How many at 6F?How many were one turn races?how many bounced going two turns for the first time? How many on turf sprints?

I can name 4 (I think).All were in same race Afleet Alex, Bandini, Bellamy Road, Greeley\'s Galaxy. Would you consider that an anomoly or specific racing circumstances that may have caused all 4 in the same race to run poorly?

Can you also tell me how many horses since (2000 lets say) achieved their top in of a -1 or better in a 10F race and how they performed in their next start?

My point being here is that the sample chosen here tells a story but the data may be skewed, and the sample size no where near large enough to draw an absolute conclusion. The story sounds compelling however.

I also recently heard that no horse can win the Kentucky derby off of 5 week layoff. You get my point.

NC Tony

[miff]

NC Tony,


I agree and how many in that analysis:

1.Raced on the much more forgiving grass surface in their critical first few races during physical development.You know, knees closing, bones and muscles strengthening et al.


2.Were undefeated in beating 71 runners at 5 different tracks, on turf, wet dirt, dry dirt and all routes.


3.Ran their last quarter in 24.1 in their neg fig ROUTE performance, on their own courage.

4.Had equal type breeding.


I\'ll save you the time. The answer to all is NONE.The.I think the analysis is painting all neg 1\'s with the same brush and not comparing apples to apples.



They all get beat sooner or later and if Barbaro does, his last big fig may be one of MANY posssible reasons.This horse does not fit anywhere near the usual profile of a TC participant (started routing, exclusive early grass,unusual spacing)


I would love to take a shot against 3/5 but the analysis is a weak comparison and the value on the other runners is not enticing to me.

Mike

[ezgoer89]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NC Tony,
>
>
> I agree and how many in that analysis:
>
> 1.Raced on the much more forgiving grass surface
> in their critical first few races during physical
> development.You know, knees closing, bones and
> muscles strengthening et al.

Well, he ran 8.5f in 140 flat as a November 2 yo. The three DRF variants for the turf courses were 05, 04, and 09.  That\'s a fast time and those are hard turf courses.

>
> 2.Were undefeated in beating 71 runners at 5
> different tracks, on turf, wet dirt, dry dirt and
> all routes.

Irrelevant.

>
> 3.Ran their last quarter in 24.1 in their neg fig
> ROUTE performance, on their own courage.


I have a major issue with this and the whole thing is overblown.  Here\'s his approx. internal fractions:  23.23, 23.64, 24.41, 25.74, 24.34.  The fourth quarter is extremely bizarre and I can\'t explain what was going on (wind, track condition, whatever) because MANY horses ran a monster final quarter mile:

Bluegrass Cat  24.84
Steppenwolfer  24.14
Jazil          23.54!!!!
Bro Derek      24.04

One of the strangest 10f dirt races I can remember... this Derby was really 8f.


> 4.Had equal type breeding.

Irrelevant

 
>
> I\'ll save you the time. The answer to all is
> NONE.The.I think the analysis is painting all neg
> 1\'s with the same brush and not comparing apples
> to apples.
>

>
> They all get beat sooner or later and if Barbaro
> does, his last big fig may be one of MANY
> posssible reasons.This horse does not fit anywhere
> near the usual profile of a TC participant
> (started routing, exclusive early grass,unusual
> spacing)
>
>
> I would love to take a shot against 3/5 but the
> analysis is a weak comparison and the value on the
> other runners is not enticing to me.

When a huge majority of the P3 and P4 tickets will be dead because Barbaro will be singled, there will be value.

>
> Mike

[miff]

EZ,

I doubt your knowledge of racing allows you to fully comprehend what is and is not relevant. Your entire analysis is irrelevant. You are assuming all horses are equal.Quess what,they are not.

Mike

[TGAB]

Here\'s the table of the horses that have run -1 or better before July in their 3yo year. Knock yourself out.

[TGAB]

Forgot to add the sheets here they are.

[ezgoer89]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> EZ,
>
> I doubt your knowledge of racing allows you to
> fully comprehend what is and is not relevant. Your
> entire analysis is irrelevant. You are assuming
> all horses are equal.Quess what,they are not.
>
> Mike


Well, Mike, we just disagree.  But under your definition of equal/not equal we could take everthing to the nth degree...

Horse A 3 yo pattern:  3, 2, 1, 0

Horse B 3 yo pattern:  3, 2, 1, 0

Both horses earned those figures on the same days, on dirt, at identical distances with each having one race as a 2 yo on the same date with a figure of 7. However, Horse As figures were at Philly Park and the temperature at post time for each race was 45 degrees.  Horse Bs figures were at Santa Anita and the temperature at post time for each race was 75 degrees.  Can you compare the two horses?

[JohnTChance]

The study is great. The next step [short of putting those particular sheets online] would be to include:

- the days between races off the negative top (the \"recovery time\")
- the figure prior to the top

[TGJB]

John-- the sheets are now up. As Alan said, knock yourself out.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Thanks...I\'m dizzy already!!!

NC Tony

[marcus]

The table makes a pervasive case against a horse\'s chances of running well after the neg # prior to july ... even if your getting a big price , it doesn\'t look good in the short or long run .

[miff]

EZ,


Just check the data posted by Alan and show me ONE runner that has a remotely similar pattern/profile to Barbaro leading up to his neg 2.2.  I won\'t go into the group of \"no count runners\" and \"one fig\" runners on the list.

The spacing following some of these neg figs by several on the list tells me quite a bit about their next out regression.I think the analysis must be looked into  more deeply to get a better picture. In any event I can\'t see anything which makes me believe that Barbaro will regress other than the obvious poor spacing from the derby.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- I\'ve been trying to stay out of this, but I would like to see someone hand time those fractions off a replay before I would believe them. One horse running that slow for that quarter and then faster for the last, maybe-- but several, very very unlikely.

[miff]

Jerry,


The reason I did not question it is because I heard that ESPN did and I assumed your people would catch this anomaly with the hand timing, no?


Mike

[TGJB]

All we would catch would be the final time, and since there is no other race run at a similar distance or configuration, a year between races, and 20 horses to work with, I don\'t even even pay much attention to that. (Having said that, it did fit with the only other 2 turn race, a 1 1/16th run 4 mint juleps earlier on the card).