3 YO NEG Top Study

Wrongly · May 18, 2006, 03:19:09 PM

Timing error? How could 7 horses run the final quarter faster then the previous quarter? Dead rail on the turn? Really wasn\'t present earlier in the day. The mile time might be wrong.

Wrongly · May 18, 2006, 03:20:49 PM

EQUIBASE CHART
--------------

Barbaro 23.28 23.62 46.90 24.61 71.51 25.52 97.02 24.34 121.36
Bluegrass Cat 23.51 23.69 47.20 24.51 71.71 25.94 97.65 25.02 122.66
Steppenwolfer 25.01 23.24 48.25 23.91 72.16 25.92 98.07 24.99 123.06
Jazil 25.61 23.89 49.50 23.69 73.18 25.64 98.82 24.44 123.26
Brother Derek 23.61 24.12 47.72 24.66 72.38 26.04 98.42 24.84 123.26
Showing Up 23.26 23.62 46.87 24.61 71.48 26.14 97.62 25.74 123.36
Sweetnorthernsaint 24.11 23.74 47.85 23.76 71.61 26.24 97.85 26.12 123.96
Deputy Glitters 24.31 24.17 48.47 24.31 72.78 25.44 98.22 25.94 124.16
Point Determined 24.01 23.82 47.82 23.99 71.81 26.29 98.10 26.32 124.41
Seaside Retreat 23.48 23.84 47.32 24.74 72.06 26.64 98.70 25.74 124.44
Storm Treasure 25.11 23.59 48.70 23.66 72.36 26.19 98.55 26.79 125.34
Lawyer Ron 23.38 24.24 47.62 24.41 72.03 26.09 98.12 27.57 125.69
Cause to Believe 24.61 24.49 49.10 24.19 73.28 25.94 99.22 26.48 125.70
Flashy Bull 24.71 23.97 48.67 24.21 72.88 25.72 98.60 27.70 126.30
Private Vow 24.91 23.67 48.57 23.69 72.26 26.19 98.45 28.35 126.80
Sinister Minister 22.66 23.82 46.47 24.71 71.18 26.69 97.87 29.48 127.35
Bob and John 24.51 23.54 48.05 23.96 72.01 26.72 98.72 28.93 127.65
A. P. Warrior 23.91 24.37 48.27 24.81 73.08 26.94 100.02 27.68 127.70
Sharp Humor 22.96 24.34 47.30 25.19 72.48 28.54 101.02 26.98 128.00
Keyed Entry 22.63 23.44 46.07 24.81 70.88 27.69 98.57 30.93 129.50

BRISNET CHART
-------------

Barbaro 23.28 23.62 46.90 24.61 71.51 25.52 97.02 24.34 121.36
Bluegrass Cat 23.51 23.69 47.20 24.51 71.71 26.07 97.77 24.89 122.66
Steppenwolfer 25.01 23.24 48.25 23.91 72.16 26.72 98.87 24.19 123.06
Jazil 25.61 23.89 49.50 23.69 73.18 26.42 99.60 23.67 123.26
Brother Derek 23.61 24.12 47.72 24.66 72.38 26.82 99.20 24.07 123.26
Showing Up 23.26 23.62 46.87 24.61 71.48 26.19 97.67 25.69 123.36
Sweetnorthernsaint 24.11 23.74 47.85 23.76 71.61 26.04 97.65 26.32 123.96
Deputy Glitters 24.31 24.17 48.47 24.31 72.78 26.22 99.00 25.17 124.16
Point Determined 24.01 23.82 47.82 23.99 71.81 26.97 98.77 25.64 124.41
Seaside Retreat 23.48 23.84 47.32 24.74 72.06 27.42 99.47 24.97 124.44
Storm Treasure 25.11 23.59 48.70 23.66 72.36 26.97 99.32 26.02 125.34
Lawyer Ron 23.38 24.24 47.62 24.41 72.03 26.87 98.90 26.79 125.69
Cause to Believe 24.61 24.49 49.10 24.19 73.28 26.72 100.00 25.70 125.70
Flashy Bull 24.71 23.97 48.67 24.21 72.88 26.49 99.37 26.93 126.30
Private Vow 24.91 23.67 48.57 23.69 72.26 26.97 99.22 27.58 126.80
Sinister Minister 22.66 23.82 46.47 24.71 71.18 26.44 97.62 29.73 127.35
Bob and John 24.51 23.54 48.05 23.96 72.01 27.49 99.50 28.15 127.65
A. P. Warrior 23.91 24.37 48.27 24.81 73.08 27.72 100.80 26.90 127.70
Sharp Humor 22.96 24.34 47.30 25.19 72.48 29.32 101.80 26.20 128.00
Keyed Entry 22.63 23.44 46.07 24.81 70.88 28.47 99.35 30.15 129.50

Chuckles_the_Clown2 · May 18, 2006, 05:11:17 PM

i like the way you think ezgoer89. My guess it that nickname adds smarts to an already smart guy.

The Key of Course is that Barbaro will be about 3-5 judging by all the hype. That Derby does on its Face look impressive, however scrutiny reveals some holes in it. My personal view is that he did not run quite as fast as many are saying, so in that regard a bounce is less likely. However, he will not get the benefit of pace and path he received last by all appearances and to my eye he is a horse to consider as a target upon Regression. I\'m confident he will regress. Its merely a question of the others firing and if they do any regression is likely to be sufficient to mar that Perfect Record.

If he doesnt go down Saturday, we\'ll get him in three weeks. We just have to be sure to come up with the correct vanquisher. To me that is the challenge.

ezgoer89 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > NC Tony,
> >
> >
> > I agree and how many in that analysis:
> >
> > 1.Raced on the much more forgiving grass
> surface
> > in their critical first few races during
> physical
> > development.You know, knees closing, bones
> and
> > muscles strengthening et al.
>
> Well, he ran 8.5f in 140 flat as a November 2 yo.
> The three DRF variants for the turf courses were
> 05, 04, and 09. That\'s a fast time and those are
> hard turf courses.
>
> >
> > 2.Were undefeated in beating 71 runners at 5
> > different tracks, on turf, wet dirt, dry dirt
> and
> > all routes.
>
> Irrelevant.
>
> >
> > 3.Ran their last quarter in 24.1 in their neg
> fig
> > ROUTE performance, on their own courage.
>
>
> I have a major issue with this and the whole thing
> is overblown. Here\'s his approx. internal
> fractions: 23.23, 23.64, 24.41, 25.74, 24.34.
> The fourth quarter is extremely bizarre and I
> can\'t explain what was going on (wind, track
> condition, whatever) because MANY horses ran a
> monster final quarter mile:
>
> Bluegrass Cat 24.84
> Steppenwolfer 24.14
> Jazil 23.54!!!!
> Bro Derek 24.04
>
> One of the strangest 10f dirt races I can
> remember... this Derby was really 8f.
>
>
> > 4.Had equal type breeding.
>
> Irrelevant
>
>
> >
> > I\'ll save you the time. The answer to all is
> > NONE.The.I think the analysis is painting all
> neg
> > 1\'s with the same brush and not comparing
> apples
> > to apples.
> >
>
> >
> > They all get beat sooner or later and if
> Barbaro
> > does, his last big fig may be one of MANY
> > posssible reasons.This horse does not fit
> anywhere
> > near the usual profile of a TC participant
> > (started routing, exclusive early
> grass,unusual
> > spacing)
> >
> >
> > I would love to take a shot against 3/5 but
> the
> > analysis is a weak comparison and the value
> on the
> > other runners is not enticing to me.
>
> When a huge majority of the P3 and P4 tickets will
> be dead because Barbaro will be singled, there
> will be value.
>
> >
> > Mike
>
>
>

bellsbendboy · May 18, 2006, 05:24:33 PM

Can you expound a bit on how the Derby \"fit\" with the other two turn race. I would guess there haven\'t been seven horses in the last seven years that ran a faster last quarter, than the previous quarter, in a two turn race. thanx. BBB

Chuckles_the_Clown2 · May 18, 2006, 05:30:54 PM

TGAB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Forgot to add the sheets here they are.
>
> TGAB

Wow,

thank you TGAB

Very impressive and much appreciated

TGJB · May 18, 2006, 05:35:48 PM

Bell-- I\'m talking about track speed (variant) for the race, final time, not fractions.

Chuckles_the_Clown2 · May 18, 2006, 05:36:42 PM

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can you expound a bit on how the Derby \"fit\" with
> the other two turn race. I would guess there
> haven\'t been seven horses in the last seven years
> that ran a faster last quarter, than the previous
> quarter, in a two turn race. thanx. BBB

Certainly not attempting to steal TGraphs thunder, but its my belief that the odd closing fractions are related at least in part to path. Churchill was very fast by the Derby, provided the horse was on the right part of the track.

ezgoer89 · May 18, 2006, 07:09:43 PM

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> i like the way you think ezgoer89. My guess it
> that nickname adds smarts to an already smart
> guy.
>
> The Key of Course is that Barbaro will be about
> 3-5 judging by all the hype. That Derby does on
> its Face look impressive, however scrutiny reveals
> some holes in it. My personal view is that he did
> not run quite as fast as many are saying, so in
> that regard a bounce is less likely. However, he
> will not get the benefit of pace and path he
> received last by all appearances and to my eye he
> is a horse to consider as a target upon
> Regression. I\'m confident he will regress. Its
> merely a question of the others firing and if they
> do any regression is likely to be sufficient to
> mar that Perfect Record.
>
> If he doesnt go down Saturday, we\'ll get him in
> three weeks. We just have to be sure to come up
> with the correct vanquisher. To me that is the
> challenge.

CTC - someone who privately posted on another forum brought up a great point - that a Triple Crown winner needs a lot of things, one of them being weak competition. Afleet Alex had it all set up last year and couldn\'t get it done, check out who finished behind him in the Preakness and Belmont and he loses the triple crown to a 50-1 and 70-1.

Barbaro, should he win the Preakness, will have Sunriver, Strong Contender, Bob and John, Point Determined, Jazil, and Steppenwolfer (and surely others) ready and loaded to take him down. And make no mistake, there will be Smarty-type riding tactics again... someone (or two) will run with him early, then the E/P types will try him on the turn and finally Birdstone-like off-the-pacers will try to grab him late.

However, I think the point is moot...

Josephus · May 18, 2006, 07:36:47 PM

I agree easygoer89, but i think this horse is more tractable than Smarty, and he has a better jock, i don\'t think he\'s going to get suckered in. I may be a bit predjudiced, because this horse literally took my breath away when I saw his 1/1/06 race. He was my derby choice even tho TG\'s fig on him wasn\'t that outstanding ( and if BRC had run out, I would of had the tri and the super ). I don\'t think we\'ve seen the bottom of him yet. Unlike most of those other horses in the study, he\'s not a one dimensional speedball. He\'s got the right trainer and so far Prado hasn\'t made a mistake on him. I haven\'t seen the TG on the new horses, but i don\'t think BD can beat him, he hasn\'t won outside of CA and the horses he was beating outhere are nowhere to be found. I think BB has the right idea; stay away from Barbaro!

NoCarolinaTony · May 19, 2006, 04:31:48 AM

EZ

Is it just not possible that the previous quarter was run slower simply because most if not all of it was run around a turn and the final quarter was run on a straight away? Don\'t think the pyhysics there is too hard to grasp.

It\'s those horses that waste all their energy on the turn that run very slow last quarters down the stretch.

NC Tony

NoCarolinaTony · May 19, 2006, 04:41:07 AM

Alan & Jerry,

Thanks for posting the data. That kind of response that seperates you guys from the other guys. Sharing the information with your customers (openly), and being customer focused is what seperates one business from another no matter what industry you are in.

NC Tony

Michael D. · May 19, 2006, 07:41:14 AM

yes he\'s the man (second to last on this list) runs tomorrow at mth in a 60g race (why?). \'2\' TG vs an 88 beyer, and a negative \'1.5\' vs 103 beyer (with a \'tu\' in between). you have him pretty fast. did you try and get this guy?

TGJB · May 19, 2006, 11:02:20 AM

Michael-- I inquired after the second start, they wanted too much (he was undefeated). After the last I would be concerned (see study),and since he won a stake the price would be out of this world.

asfufh · May 19, 2006, 11:04:50 AM

I notice that no horse on this 3YO Neg Top list ran their initial negative number in the KDerby and the only horse to run a negative number (1.75neg) in the KDerby (prior to this year) was SmartyJones and he went on to win the Preakness (3.75neg).
Could this mean that winning the KDerby with a negative number indicates the presense of a Super Duper Monster horse capable of bettering their effort(TG#) in the Preakness?
I\'m thinking it does.
Asfufh

P.Eckhart · May 19, 2006, 06:41:27 PM

On that list if you throw out all the negs made at KEE and throw out all the negs made on wet tracks, both rules being plausibly logical, you end up with a very slightly profitable level stake system. Not bad considering the list was meant to show a car wreck. Shows how poisonous backfitted data can be.

3 YO NEG Top Study

Chuckles_the_Clown2

Chuckles_the_Clown2

Chuckles_the_Clown2

Josephus