The Truth about SNS

[scottv]

SNS will probably be the second favorite at the Derby.  Every handicapper has him as his \"intriguing horse\".   ESPN, TVG, thorograph, not sure about DRF handicappers just yet.

The truth about SNS is that he is a gelding and he has not shown the ability to rate off of a fast blistering pace and win.

Don\'t get me wrong, I see good things about this horse on the sheets, but there is a chink in his armor and he is beatable, especially if he draws poorly.

I think it makes more sense to concentrate on the longshots that are very likely to run in the money.  

Look at the superfecta payout in 2004, Smarty, Lion tamer (the top two favorites, with a 10-1 IMPERIAlism and a 40-1 (Pletcher\'s Limehouse).  Payout for $1 is 41,000, the tri only paid $900 and change.

There is value in the longshots.  
 

[Holybull]

He certainly did not gun for the lead in the Gotham or Illinois Derby.  I thought he sat off the pace just fine.  Sometimes horses get to the lead in the early parts of the race simply because they are much the best.  That may be the case with SNS. That\'s what I\'m hanging my hat on at least.

[Tony]

I disagree.

He rated in the gotham ran close to 12 second furlongs. Last race splits
 
23.72 48.26 113.2 137.74 149.82 Final 3/8 36.62!

[big18741]

SNS has never been in a race where he wasn\'t on the lead or outside in the clear stalking.

He\'s not going to be on the lead Saturday and if other stalker types draw outside of him-he faces a trip he\'s never been exposed to before: In traffic behind horses eating dirt.

[Wrongly]

Scottv

I don\'t think SNS will be second choice.  The uninformed public is going to bet Barbaro down for the simple fact that he\'s undefeated and Layer Ron is undefeated as a 3-year old.  The public is also going to get caught up in those public interest stories: Matz (Hero), Hendricks (Tragic accident) and Holthus (Good old boy).  SNS should be 8-1 or more as fourth choice.

[JJP]

The public will bet the Beyers, not the public interest stories.  SNS will be bet down.

[richiebee]

Agreed that Lawyer and Barbaro (and don\'t forget Bro Derek) will all take more tote money. In a 20 horse field SNS could conceivably be a 6/1 fourth favored.

Dont forget another human interest story which will be played up-- Beverly Lewis. This sets up the possibility of an emotional moment even exceeding \"You\'ve won the Derby, Mrs Genter\"

It puts a lot of pressure on you when the subject you are posting under has the word \"truth\" in it.

[miff]

Richiebee,

I see a substantial bail out on Bro Derek at several venues.In the end, the national hard core of handicappers will make the odds over the human interest people.I\'m getting the vibe that 4-1 or 9/2 may be the odds on the favorite.

[jbelfior]

From everything I have read or heard leading up to the Derby, I would safely bet that BROTHER DEREK will not be the post time favorite.

I can picture him being 8-1 after Friday\'s wagering meaning there will be significant value with him in the Oaks/Derby double.

My bet is that SNS is the favorite on Saturday morning. It\'s a toss up between SNS & BARBARO after that.



Word of caution to all of you that are leaning towards POINT DETERMINED....Frankie Lyons loves him.......yikes!!!!

Second word of caution to fans of CAUSE TO BELIEVE....touted by Brent Musberger during Clippers-Nuggets telecast on Saturday night.....a double yikes!!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richiebee,

Very interesting angle to play. The  \"grieving widow\" angle. I have got to keep that in mind this coming Saturday. Right now I\'m playing all 3 Bafferts in all 4 slots. I am trying to find the rest of the dance partners. Being a former Jesuit student, I might have to play the \"Holy-Saint\", \"Sinister Minister\"  and the \"Brother- Derek\" angle.  And since I like  jazz music, I might include \"Jazil\" as well. To hell with Figs.-

NC Tony

[richiebee]

NCT:
   Don\'t know that its a handicapping angle, but bet on TV giving us a large helping of schmaltz, as usual.

   Any real Jesuit handicapper would have been all over Prince of Peace, the $31 winner of yesterday\'s ninth at Aq.

[kev]

I think if like Barbaro you will get a good price out of him ( better than his ML odds ), Mike maybe makes him 7-1ml and goes off at around 10-1.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SNS has never been in a race where he wasn\'t on
> the lead or outside in the clear stalking.
>
> He\'s not going to be on the lead Saturday and if
> other stalker types draw outside of him-he faces a
> trip he\'s never been exposed to before: In traffic
> behind horses eating dirt.

I tend to agree with Holybull and think that one is wishing for a negative pace scenario with this one. They said Bellamy Road had a high cruising speed. Maybe he did. The difference was Bellamy needed to be aggressive on the lead with his speed. This horse just has a ton of free flowing, easy moving, natural speed with a killer finish. I expect to see him pace similar to the Gotham. If he runs the same race as in the Gotham he may lose. For whatever reason I don\'t think he put forth his best effort in the Gotham. But seriously, where the connections looking for it there?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

kev Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think if like Barbaro you will get a good price
> out of him ( better than his ML odds ), Mike maybe
> makes him 7-1ml and goes off at around 10-1.

Barbaro, Lawyer Ron and Sharp Humor all put in very quick works Saturday. Barbaro has shown the most tolerance for a horse in front of him, but he worked Saturday like that will be intolerable. Though Saturday, they\'ll have a gate and a turn to deal with and those works will winnow down in speed some.

To me, one of the most intriguing pace scenarios will be how the three mentioned about run the first half mile.

Dontchaloveit

[kev]

Sharp H 2nd, L.RON 6th or 7th, BAR. 5th. all for the half mile.