The Truth about SNS

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

kev Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sharp H 2nd, L.RON 6th or 7th, BAR. 5th. all for
> the half mile.

Maybe, I\'m thinking

Sinister Minister

Sharp Humor with Lawyer Ron at his throatlatch.

Brother Derek desperate to stay close with Keyed Entry right with him

Barbaro wondering what hit him

Sweetnorthernsaint loping along, blowing the crowd kisses

Bob and John staying in touch with the Saint.

Beyond that I\'m not sure. This is pre post draw of course.

[Uncle Buck]

The \"TRUTH\" about SNS is this:
Nice horse
Nice pattern
Nice horse to get me out of credit card debt...
Especially nice at 30-1

[miff]

Buck,


You think he will be 30-1? or did you have a few too many tonight, buddy.


Mike

[SoCalMan2]

Maybe he got on the bandwagon early on a future bet?

[miff]

So Cal,


You must be correct, or I am correct that ol\' buck was hitting the sauce.thanks


Mike


P.S. I see pool 2 had him 30-1.

[richiebee]

Give Uncle some props-- he posted about SNS the day he broke his maiden on the inner tube.

That being said, it is of course possible that he is on the sauce.

Offshore: Lawyer Rank now 3.5/1, Bro Drek 4/1, Barbaro and SNS 6/1, Point D 11/1, B and J 13/1, Jazil 28/1, Sunriver 36/1

[miff]

Richiebee,

Good point on Bucks early call.Is there some occult sexual thing about B and J that I am missing?

Mike

[P-Dub]

Miff,

I think Buck mentioned previously that he got him in the futures.

[miff]

P-Dub,

Yeah, I wasn\'t thinking that way, thought he was hitting the sauce.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Not sure what you have against B&J.  He has the 2 year old foundation of a Derby winner, running a 5 last year.  His last race got down to a 0, which is definitely contender material here, unless you think Sinister Minister is going to pair up.  I know that the Wood was over a sloppy track, but I don\'t believe that B&J is a \"mudder\", do you?  I know he came home slow in the Wood, but the early pace in the wood and his breeding should alleviate 1 1/4 concerns.  I know he comes in off a 3 point top, which isn\'t good, but which of Baffert\'s TRUE Derby contenders over the past 7-8 years have \"bounced\" in the Derby?  How many have paired up or ran new tops?  Having Baffert as your trainer here should alleviate some of the bounce concerns.  Gomez gets off the fastest horse in the race to stick with B&J.  What Baffert said BEFORE the Wood about B&J not being at his best over the cement-like West Coast tracks, and expecting him to run better on the eastern tracks is plausible.  If you look at the \"California closers\" record in the Derby, there are some decent horses that couldn\'t close ground out west running over the cement, that moved forward at east coast tracks like Belmont and Churchill, that tend to play fairer.

All told, 12-1 looks about exactly right to me on Bob and John.  He isn\'t the most likely winner, but he certainly fits amongs the top group, at least IMO>

[miff]

Jim,

As Jerry has stated more than once,many sheets readers use different interpreting factors when looking at TG data.I have always been cautious of runners that get fast figs which have an inordinate component of \"wide\"(ground loss) in them, especially when measuring them against runners that are more 1-2w-ish, for example.

B and J was very wide turn one in the Wood(Prado race rode gomez around the clubhouse turn).Against the adjusted clock that day, the race came up slow by my measuring stick with the last 3/8ths beyond slow at 40.50(very fast early pace caused this imo).I agree with the fig awarded by TG.His last in CAL was very wide last turn(he had gate trouble in that race)

I have followed B & J all the way this year and was high on him early.I thought Jerry had given him slower figs than he earned in two Cal races. I no longer believe that. He has only won when he stalked from very close range and grinded down the winner or pulled away after setting slow fractions(Check his lines and see what you think) His internals(a form of pace figs) confirm he is fairly one paced and does not posess anywhere near the acceleration of 8 others.I do not believe B & J has any chance of being in his normal comfort zone, i.e.stalking from up close, so thats my main knock. Also,don\'t forget Baffy ran away with B&J from that \"thing\" (he calls Bro Derek that)


I will also be eliminating Bro Derek because he will NOT control this race like he usually does. I know he vied three wide one race but he pulled.How he will handle racing from behind/stalking a bit may be his undoing and he\'s chalk.


I note your methodology from your various posts. I followed the \"book\" religiously until I became more comfortable using figs along with other aides.If you took 5 experienced sheet readers you will surely have different opinions.If you are successful with your style,don\'t let anyone talk you out of it.Good Luck

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Compelling argument Jim. But if you like B&J; why not AP Warrior at perhaps double the price. ( He is 22-1 offshore). He has beaten B&J 2of3, and rank the other, will stay ten panels and after the trainer switch is a different horse. He was a bit rushed into the Santa Anita and seems a new top. bbb

[jimbo66]

Mike (Miff),

Thanks for the informative post.  You make a good case against B&J.  I am curious as to who your eight others are.  


I have to admit that I would not like B&J as much if he was trained by \"Joe Schmoe\" and not by Baffert.  I don\'t bet trainers/jockeys, but in the Derby I do allow myself to get influenced by trainers occasionally.  

Interesting point about big figs driven by ground loss.  I am pretty sure that our host would disagree with your assertion, but I have asked the same question, albeit specific to Belmont, where I hate big figs driven by wide sweeping moves on that track, when wide and sweeping is often the place to be at \"big sandy\".

4 days left.  Can\'t wait.

[jimbo66]

Bellsbendboy,

I do like AP Warrior.  My current strategy, which of course will change a dozen times before Saturday is:

Play the Oaks - Derby Double, keying WonderladyAnne with 4 Derby Horses:

SweetNorthernSaint
AP Warrior
Point Determined
Bob and John

WonderladyAnne figures about 8-1, so I can go 4 deep in the double.  She got down to a \"3\" last time, which is the co-fastest in the race.  Balance has gotten to that level once and Wait A While has run it three times. I think WonderLadyAnne can improve on Friday and will appreciate the expected fast pace.

As for the Derby itself, I think SweetNorthernSaint to be the most likely winner, but by a small margin.  I don\'t think anybody is more than 12% or so to win the race.  Since I expect SNS to be about 7-1 or so, I can\'t key him.  I will probably be keying AP Warrior, Point Determined and Bob and John over themselves + 6 others (SNS, Bluegrass Cat, Jazil, Cause to believe, Brother Derek and Barbaro).  About a grand.  If Sunriver gets in, I use him in the Superfecta slots.

I think AP warrior is a bet at 18-1 or so.  As you say, he beat B&J 2 out of 3, and if he can relax, should get a nice trip.  I really believe that the California \"closers\" do well when they come east and get the fairer tracks.  Hence, PD, B&J and AP being three of my horses).  I am also drawing a line through his race in the SA Derby, where he chased a loose on the lead Brother Derek.  He ran a \"1\" the race before and I expect and hope for a move forward from that level, which makes him a possible winner at juicy odds.

[miff]

Jim,

After they draw the post positions, I\'ll finalize. I\'ll be tossing ALL of the one dimensional speed horses for sure,regardless of their patterns or figs. I believe this derby will be more a trip/running style race than in most years.

Mike