Derby Works Update-Desormeaux Noshow

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wrongly Wrote:
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> Jeremey Rose?  Ba ha ha. You are a Clown.  How
> about his ride in the Ben Ali?
>
> \"Noble Causeway - Closer than usual and well
> placed in hand near the inside, angled three or
> four wide approaching the stretch. was five wide
> for the drive, then, after the rider misjudged the
> finish and rose prematurely at the alternate
> finish line a sixteenth out, was not ridden the
> remained and narrowly held the show position on
> his own courage.\"
>
> Ba ha ha ha.
>
>

Jerry, This guy Wrongly is obviously a refugee from the other board. Isn\'t there a modicrum of knowledge or participation required to post here?

I don\'t even know why I respond to some of these claimers, but I think its got to do with Big Day Fever Pitch.

Obviously, WRONGLY, you are operating under the delusion that Noble Causeway is a horse. He was third choice in a small field at about 7-1. He finished 3rd.

Keeneland has reverted in recent days to favoring speed, with some exceptions. Noble Causeway never had an ounce of speed. Jeremy Rose had 3 mounts per my recollection. Obviously you somehow missed the 8-1 well intended winner by Keeneland Nick with Rose up. I think Rose went (3) 1-1-1. Not too shabby by my reckoning. But what do I know.

Take something for that hack, or give up the smokes. Smokes will kill ya, ruin your brain power for handicapping too. You know that tar adheres to the linings of all your arteries, including those in whatever size brain a person begins with.

Rose would alleviate all Desormeaux concerns.  

[Michael D.]

"He should be a Triple Crown winner, but I messed up," Rose said, referring to Afleet Alex's third-place finish at Churchill Downs, where he was beaten by two long shots.

[TGJB]

CTC-- yeah, his post was intentionally annoying. Like most of yours.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> "He should be a Triple Crown winner, but I messed
> up," Rose said, referring to Afleet Alex's
> third-place finish at Churchill Downs, where he
> was beaten by two long shots.

If you\'re referring to over use of the whip in the Ark. I don\'t think that beat Alex. He did have a top. But he was sick in the runup to the Derby and caught the wrong part of the track that day off that top.

Words from his own mouth, regarding his belief that his horse was so good he shouldn\'t have been beaten. Jockeys can keep a horse from winning. I don\'t think Rose got in the way, but only a good kid with talent would speak from his heart like that.

I want him on SnS

[Monarchos]

Most likely ,  Desormeaux  road to Bafferts instructions in the Belmont. Still only lost by a scant nose , to a horse that probably was at least his equal. Desormeaux\'s normal style would have been to stick with Victory Gallop and leave him pinned in on the turn, but I remember Baffert basically disrespecting Victory Gallop in the media, and probably letting Desormeaux know that race riding Victory Gallop would not be tolerated. MY opionion, Baffert probably choked the strategy, and Kent didn\'t ride his usual ride. Baffert always seems to stress how much he dislikes riders race riding other horses, which is probably why he doesn\'t ride Kent. I don\'t agree with him, but I don\'t have a financial interest in the horses either.

[Monarchos]

Once again . What does the way the jockey explains a bad ride, have to do with the actual act of race riding in a pressure situation ? Rose had a chance to come up big in the Derby and failed. If owners and trainers are so ego driven that they\'re willing to risk losing a big race just to prove that any monkey can win the Derby on their super horse, so be it. My opinion is that Desormeaux if vastly and I can\'t stress vastly underated as a rider. He does need work in the PR department, admittedly he\'s too candid sometimes , in a sport that doesn\'t appreciate candor. Has nothing to due with his skill however.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

i have to say, i\'ve never seen an overhead shot. i\'ve seen the head on\'s and the cut technique...but if you say theres a head on and he got stopped, that goes a long way to answering why he didn\'t win for me. I was all over him

[TGJB]

So let me get this straight, Chuckles. The two times that you went on record before the race-- meaning the last two years, not all the times you have told us about retroactively-- you\'ve made a lot of noise, and then picked the public favorite in the Derby. That right?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

 Monarchos Wrote:
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> Chuckles, this is only my opinion. One could say ,
> that Afleet Alex bounced, which he did, but, if
> Afleet Alex isn\'t completely  stopped into the
> turn, he would would have had a commanding lead,
> into the lane, much like Real Quiet did , in his
> Derby win and would have won the race with a great
> ride, despite not getting the best number. I
> believe that Victory Gallop, Empire Maker,
> Aptitude, Captain Bodget, all lost the Derby
> despite running faster, or at least as fast as the
> winner. The best comparison to a rider making a
> difference in the Derby, is Empire Maker vs
> Fusaichi Pegasus. Empire Maker was ridden like he
> was much the best , and lost in what I percieve as
> a gutless ride by Bailey. Fusaichi Pegasus was
> ridden in a manor that would have been percieved ,
> as a bad ride if he had lost, and yet Desormeaux
> rode the race, saving all the ground that he
> could, as if he were on a longshot. That\'s all I\'m
> saying.

I think Bailey went wide with a wide gate hole is my recollection. I believe Bailey was consulted at the post position draw and recommended wide rather than inside though. You\'re not gonna get an argument from me that beating Bailey was a green way, even though, I respected his ability. He won for me on Sea Hero and beat me a nose on Grindstone. Regardless, I don\'t think Empire Maker was as good as Funny Cide in that period. Nothing was gonna get him up. Since the Preakness Funny Cide has had issues.

Candidly, I dont\' remember the FuPeg Derby well. I tend to block that from my mind. I got creamed in it. I\'m not a big fan of Desormeaux and never will be. That missed work today is evidence of something I don\'t want on my horse\'s back.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So let me get this straight, Chuckles. The two
> times that you went on record before the race--
> meaning the last two years, not all the times you
> have told us about retroactively-- you\'ve made a
> lot of noise, and then picked the public favorite
> in the Derby. That right?


I\'ve been on the record for the Derby here in

2000
2002
2003
2004 and
2005

That would be for an also ran, 3 winners and a third.

The public choice in 2005 was your choice. The vastly overrated and mis-scored Bellamania. I bucked him but lost the Derby with the best horse, Afleet Alex. Actually it wasn\'t bucking at all.

2004 You said Smarty was the fastest and he was the public choice if I remember correctly at about 4-1. I did ok that race but missed the tri and super.

2003 I was all over Funny Cide and had it all

2002 was even better and those winners are on record

2001 I did not post pre derby

2000 I was all over Anees, but my handicapping went south due to a large future bet. I don\'t future bet any more.

I\'ve posted it before, my derby record follows:

2005 Afleet Alex - 3rd
2004 Smarty Jones - 1st
2003 Funny Cide - 1st
2002 War Emblem -1st
2001 Point Given/Monarchos Box
2000 Anees - Also Ran
1999 Menifee - 2nd
1998 Indian Charlie - 3rd
1997 Captain Bodgit 2nd
1996 Cavonnier 2nd
1995 Jumron 4th
1993 Sea Hero 1st
1992 Lil E. Tee 1st
1991 Strike the Gold 1st
1990 Summer Squall 2nd
1989 Easy Goer 2nd
1988 49er 2nd

I\'m gonna win it this year. But I\'m not concerned with getting the winner. This race has super potential. Its not even that hard.

p.s 1994 Southern Rhythm - also ran

[Monarchos]

I notice that you say , i cashed on Bailey on Sea Hero, therefore you seem to imply that it exonerates him for blowing the ride on Empire Maker. I don\'t see what one has to do with the other. Desormeaux is confident in his ability and the trainers like Frankel and Baffert clash with his cockiness, and can\'t handle being upstaged or overshadowed by him. My personal favorite , is Eoin Harty of all people, criticizing Kent for a winning ride on Excellent Meeting in the 1999 Santa Anita Oaks, and watching this genius lose A.P. Warrior to Shireffs, who actually looks to have a chance in the Derby. Way to go Eoin !! and by the way, how many Derby winners have you trained ? Somehow Baffert managed to avoid critiscm for not running Excellent Meeting against Silverbulletday in the Kentucky Oaks, it what could be construed, as an attempt to insure his good friend Mike Pegram a Kentucky Oaks victory. CAN YOU SAY CONFLICT OF INTEREST!!! Messing with the integrity of the game. Baffert really was never called to the carpet for this. Desormeaux oversleeps one time, big freaking deal. Baffert has made me a lot of money by the way, still don\'t like his treatment of Kent D. Evidently the guy has atrocious manners or something.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

 Monarchos Wrote:
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> I notice that you say , i cashed on Bailey on Sea
> Hero, therefore you seem to imply that it
> exonerates him for blowing the ride on Empire
> Maker. I don\'t see what one has to do with the

I\'m disagreeing with your assertion that Desormeaux is the equal of Jerry Bailey. The Sea Hero and Grindstone rides were works of art. I benefitted from one and it cost me big on the other. Neither one was a favorite. Grindstone would have been 20-1 but for the coupling. If he had been I would have reversed.


> Desormeaux is confident in his ability and
> the trainers like Frankel and Baffert clash with
> his cockiness, and can\'t handle being upstaged or
> overshadowed by him. My personal favorite , is
> Eoin Harty of all people, criticizing Kent for a
> winning ride on Excellent Meeting in the 1999
> Santa Anita Oaks, and watching this genius lose
> A.P. Warrior to Shireffs,

They paid 1.3 million for A.P Warrior and they got a Grade II with Bafferts 3rd stringer about to wear him down. Of course they are desperate. Desperate men take desperate measures. Shireffs is not Houdini. That myth busts next Saturday.

who actually looks to
> have a chance in the Derby. Way to go Eoin !! and
> by the way, how many Derby winners have you
> trained ?

I\'m tied with Derby winners with the legendary Ben Jones at 6. Saturday I take the lead. Altough he had fewer cracks at it.

> Somehow Baffert managed to avoid
> critiscm for not running Excellent Meeting against
> Silverbulletday in the Kentucky Oaks, it what
> could be construed, as an attempt to insure his
> good friend Mike Pegram a Kentucky Oaks victory.
> CAN YOU SAY CONFLICT OF INTEREST!!! Messing with
> the integrity of the game. Baffert really was
> never called to the carpet for this. Desormeaux
> oversleeps one time, big freaking deal. Baffert
> has made me a lot of money by the way, still don\'t
> like his treatment of Kent D. Evidently the guy
> has atrocious manners or something.

I\'m not sure what Desormeaux\'s lack of responsibility has to do with Baffert not entering a horse. If the owners of the race wanted to run, they fire Baffert. If Desormeaux wants to ride SnS all he apparently has to do is show up on time with the clerk of scales. Nothing else seems to matter with his Maryland connections. Big Mistake.

[TGJB]

CTC-- show me where you are on record. Some of us really are, and have been for a long time.

Last chance, pal. I was nice enough to fire my warning shots at you privately, but I\'m done with that. No more warnings.

[Monarchos]

They show it on NBC and ESPN Derby coverage. Perhaps you could form a more informed opinion if you have all the facts. He was absolutely stopped cold.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> CTC-- show me where you are on record. Some of us
> really are, and have been for a long time.
>
> Last chance, pal. I was nice enough to fire my
> warning shots at you privately, but I\'m done with
> that. No more warnings.

Jerry, is this a unilateral punching bag contest? Where you get to  take potshots at my handicapping prowess and don\'t expect any counter punching where you\'re potentially vulnerable?

I dont have time to dig the picks right now. I have the Derby Trial to win, but if you\'re serious, however far your board archives go back i\'ll dig them up tomorrow or Monday.

If I prove my selections, will that insulate me from retaliatory banning for proving myself correct or disagreeing with some of your faster figures? Not just disagreeing, but identifying the flawed figures, calling them flawed at the time and seeing later results tend to shed light upon them as flawed?

Certainly they are a small number overall. Certainly, far less than 1%. But they are the tough figures to make, because if you take note, the figures I generally take issue with are for developing 3YO\'s. (Well maybe GZ and I\'ll have to acquiesce that results say you were correct.) Figures for 3YO\'s are fraught with peril. I just think I know where some of the pitfalls are, because I\'ve fallen in them before.

So I disagree vehemently upon Bellamy Road. That said, I\'ve heard rumor of your figures for two horses I\'m very high upon this year. Its not about disagreeing with you. Its about winning. Thats all it is.

The Derby is the greatest handicapping contest. Period. It all comes together there and its what I focus upon. Whose your star TFigs Las Vegas National Contest handicapper? Bring him on.

last post of day, i\'ll respond to your inquiry later if I still have access.

lol