Sinister Minister Bounce

[gatodelsol]

My 2 cents -- horses just don\'t run big new tops in the Derby and Private Vow has to move forward significantly to even hit the board.  If the Asmussen elixer hasn\'t kicked in by now, it won\'t happen in the Derby.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Chuckles,

I have some advice for you, obviously it\'s your choice to accept it or not.

I would refrain from any further Sin Min discussion. Just about everyone who posts on this board has a strong opinions about many aspects as it relates to handicapping, horse appearance, and sheet and pattern reading.  The sheet readers burned by last years jump up fiasco\'s of Greely\'s Galaxy, Bellamy Road and Bandini(why does a horse have to bounce- what if it doesn\'t as Jimbo points out or only regresses 2 points? what then?) combined with the anti Keeneland group, (which I could never understand how anyone who had any kind of an betting advantage knowing it favored speed  (inside speed in particular) would not use it to their betting advantage and continued to try to beat it). You are just wasting your time and finger power posting the merits of the horse. I for one am in your camp. Let the odds float up, that would be to your advantage. As you know young three year olds are all capable of huge jumps this time of year. we should focus on what other horse or horses are capable of the next big jump. Giacomo improved 4 points in last years race, as an example. Who is sitting on the next jump up race? (to fill out the tri\'s and supers!!)

NC Tony

[TGJB]

Tony-- you are missing the point. Chuckles WANTS the attention. That\'s why he goes out of his way to antagonize people.

[STB]

Just asking for opinions from Sinister fans - does Baffert\'s quote in yesterday\'s NY Post Derby Dozen to the effect that the BG \"took a lot\" out of SM concern you at all? I have no firm opinion on the horse\'s chances as of yet, I have been burned in years past falling in love with horses in March and April (Vicar most shamefully), and have been burned buying into pace set-ups two weeks before the race (War Emblem). But I have to admit Baffert\'s comment gave me pause.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles-
>
> You\'re right,he is NOT Bellamy Road.Not nearly as
> good. After years of passively reading this board
> but never posting, this whole SM thing has finally
> pushed me off the ledge. Here goes;
>
> The study that needs to be done is the following:
> Across the top 10 tracks in the country, for the
> last 2 years, calculate the average distance
> between the winner and last place horse for every
> dirt race. Seperate into two groups of sprints and
> routes. What you will likely see is that all the
> tracks are roughly equal with the exception of
> Keeneland. Everybody who posts here seems to be
> talented and knowledgeable handicappers. How often
> are you left clutching your tickets in your sweaty
> palms waiting for the outcome of a photo finish at
> Keeneland??? Virtually never.
>
> It\'s not about whether the track was speed
> favoring or not on BG day. Keeneland has always
> produced runaway winners, with incredibly strung
> out fields, and numbers that are often never
> repeated again. Whether its the track surface,
> lack of banking on the turns, lush
> scenery......who knows. It\'s just not able to be
> simply captured by saying the KEE track was speed
> favoring or not on a given day. The track simply
> produces races that you don\'t see elsewhere.
>
> I can\'t tell you how many tickets I\'ve cashed
> playing against runaway winners at KEE when they
> show up at another track, or on hores who turned
> in inexplicably horrendous efforts at KEE.  The BG
> is a complete throwout. Sinister Minister is still
> just a horse with a solitary MAIDEN 5 1/2F, $62.5K
> Claiming win on his resume, not a 9F Grade 1
> winner. And since I was at GG for the Cal Derby (I
> live about a mile away) I can tell you with
> certainty that bouncing off the rail did NOT
> somehow hide his true Grade 1 form. It showed him
> to be what he really is; A green, one dimensional
> horse with a solitary Maiden 5 1/2F, $62.5K
> Claiming win.
>
> Bellamy Road had a 5 in a 2-turn, $200K stakes
> race as a 2YO, and a slightly negative number in a
> mile allowance race as a 3YO before the Wood. No
> comparison.  
>
> Book it; he\'s cloer to last than first in the
> derby. You\'re a way better handicapper than that
> Chuckles. The question I struggle with out of the
> BG is whether BG Cat\'s thoro-pattern can be taken
> at face value....for all of the reasons listed
> above
>
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/25/06 01:46PM by
> tmcdevitt.

I am fully aware of the recent trend regarding the Keeneland surface and how big figure earners upon that surface have generally faired thereafter. But would you not agree that there are some big winners from Keeneland that run very well next? What about Lion Heart? What about The Cliff\'s Edge? Do you think their big Bluegrass was counterfeit?

What about a genuinely special horse blossoming there? When will you know? Once Polytrack is installed? How big will a special horse have to win by? 10 Lengths? 13 lengths? 31 Lengths? Is there a winning margin that will make one say, \"Wait a minute, this place is quirky, but that horse just did something obscene!\"

My question is if a handicapper is fully aware of the Keeneland perceptions, bucks them and wins. Is he the greatest there every was and greatest there ever will be?

Sometimes the fastest scored horse is the right horse for the occasion.

That said, I will be scrutinizing works, post positions and intangibles. I have not made up my mind yet.

[miff]

STB,

Baffys comments are of concern but not more than neg TG,RAGS and 116 Beyer.Explosions off a rather weak foundation, with poor spacing coming into the derby, sounds equally bad as Sin Min laying down for a couple of days post race.

Add this from someone present \"He(Sin Min) huffed and puffed coming off the track with a visible quiver in his stifle\"

Can he recover enough by the Derby to run big? I would be a sheet heretic if I didn\'t toss this one.

Mike

[scottv]

It doesn\'t make handicapping sense to bet Sinister Minister.  

This race is longer, on a different track with a history of killing speed horses.

Odds are too low on him, not like War Emblem or Charismatic (not a frontrunner but did run big before Derby), so really Sinister is a toss from the place positions for me.

[kev]

Also that big # really came off a ugly looking line. Out of no where he jumps up.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

STB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just asking for opinions from Sinister fans - does
> Baffert\'s quote in yesterday\'s NY Post Derby Dozen
> to the effect that the BG \"took a lot\" out of SM
> concern you at all? I have no firm opinion on the
> horse\'s chances as of yet, I have been burned in
> years past falling in love with horses in March
> and April (Vicar most shamefully), and have been
> burned buying into pace set-ups two weeks before
> the race (War Emblem). But I have to admit
> Baffert\'s comment gave me pause.

Bellsbendboy thinks he went off his gallop schedule as well. Add the jockey change, Bafferts comments and the quirky keeneland history and some may toss him. They will be tossing the quickest horse in the race with the best 9 mark figure however and I can guarantee they\'ll be sweating six poles in.

Tuff Stuff.

I wish I could recall Bafferts comments before the War Emblem Derby. Everyone is saying Baffert said Sinister Minister was knocked out by the Blue Grass. He arrived at Churchill yesterday and I\'ll review his works closely. I\'m not going to pay much attention to what Baffert says at this point. He\'s already said Brother Derek wants no part of trying to head Sinister Minister. Now, hes saying \"Poor old Sinister is tired. He\'s gassed. Sinister needs his geritol or he\'ll be coming back to the field on fatigue.\"

To win the Derby you have to say \"This horse is my Derby horse.\" I\'m down to two. Neither will be favored and I\'ve got the 2 fastest horses on Tfigs per my estimation. Not gonna be hasty.

[bellsbendboy]

CTC I would ask for a clarification on \"fastest horse\"?  Do you use fractional times or final times? As far as Sinister Minister goes, without a breakdown by someone during the races, he would is my solid favorite to finish last. bbb

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC I would ask for a clarification on \"fastest
> horse\"?  Do you use fractional times or final
> times? As far as Sinister Minister goes, without a
> breakdown by someone during the races, he would is
> my solid favorite to finish last. bbb

Fastest horse refers to the traditional speed figure, which is based upon Final  Time. It means a slow time on a slow track can be a much better performance than a fast time on a fast track. Sinister Minister has the best speed figure.

Of course theres Raw Time. Raw times exist in both fractional and final time.  Generally Raw Times vary with the speed of the track. Fast Surface, fast raw time. Slow surface, slow raw time.

Regarding Raw Time, Sinister Minister has the essentially the best final and fractional raw times. Brother Derek will argue with that. Derek carved out a 1:48 upon a fast track with slow fractions. Sinister Minister ran a 1.48.4 upon a slow track running hot fractions.

Speed figures are all about slow and fast. Theres always the chance Sinister Minister will finish last. If it happens it won\'t be because he is slow. It will happen because he ran too fast. I don\'t think its likely to happen.  Regardless of where he finishes, he\'s in the big dance with the best speed and raw times. Thats something many horses can\'t say. Including First Samurai who will be watching stamina races from the sideline for the rest of his abreviated racing career. If the breeders are smart they\'ll take note of that and not vitiate the breed with any more Storm Cat pedigree.

Now that the mighty, mighty Giant\'s Causeway with the oriental moniker is thoroughly debunked, who have you settled upon to win Bellsbend? Theres no money in picking a loser.

[tmcdevitt]

Lion heart; fair enough. The Cliffs Edge??? Never ran another good race in his life. The point though is this; all of those horses, and Bellamy Road, showed that they had some serious quality long before the BG. Sinister Minister had shown that he could win a 5 1/2F maiden claiming race and run like a very inexperienced horse at a mile. What does that equal?  Nothing. 116 Beyer,
-1 3/4Rag, great TG....yes, he ran fast around the track on BG day. Throw that out though, and you have a 99-1 shot who will be lucky to crack the top 10, IMHO

[NoCarolinaTony]

The Cliffs edge did run second to his stablemate Birdstone in the Travers. Got hurt in the Travers and retired.

NC Tony

[congaree1]

Chuck,


Why do you always have to include, \"what somebody wrote\" everybody here has a good sense of the board.

[bellsbendboy]

First Sam\'s book is already full and he is a can\'t miss stallion.  

Post position will be vital and I wish I could put horses where I want. If Lawyer draws inside he is toast, ditto Derek...

If pinned down right now I like three: A.P. Warrior looks very good and will certainly run a new top and may explode. Sunriver is training lights out and I would not be surprised if Pletcher finds a \"way\" to run him. Both of these two are coming to the race the right way and fit ten furlongs. For an exotics bomb Steppenwolfer fits the bill.  He is fig challenged, but is on the improve.  SNS is a total freak who bothers me. People are discounting him because he ran for a TAG... AND If you know why, YOU ARE A GOOD HANDICAPPER??? BBB