Sinister Minister Bounce

[Tony]

Here is the ultimate candidate to bounce in the Derby. Just look at ancient history this horse I will not even include in the top three positions in the triple. I might  even through him out of the super. I have learned the hard way over the years this jump up line is terrible! I guarantee right here and now this horse will not win let alone finish in the top three positions!

[shanahan]

he is unquestionably this year\'s bandini....

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tony Wrote:
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> Here is the ultimate candidate to bounce in the
> Derby. Just look at ancient history this horse I
> will not even include in the top three positions
> in the triple. I might  even through him out of
> the super. I have learned the hard way over the
> years this jump up line is terrible! I guarantee
> right here and now this horse will not win let
> alone finish in the top three positions!

Tony, can\'t argue with what your saying. I think its win or sin for S.M. But you can bet I wont let him beat me.

[davidrex]

...or maybe this years Bellamy Rd.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

davidrex Wrote:
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> ...or maybe this years Bellamy Rd.


actually we addressed this issue already. I for one, dont believe there is any comparison to either the standout/stand alone quality of their respective last preps or the conditions they will face on Derby Day.

[scottv]

Sinister is a huge bounce candidate, but it is the pace that will do him in.  Without the other front runners in the race, I would be concerned about this horse.   BDerek also keeps him honest with a far turn move.

Without Sinister, this race could  take a completely look without a true barnburner in the race.


And don\'t Think Baffert knows it.  He\'s got two other horses that need BDerek to collapse in order to have a chance

[NoCarolinaTony]

Or this years Spend a Buck.....

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

scottv Wrote:
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> Sinister is a huge bounce candidate, but it is the
> pace that will do him in.  

Assuming Sinister pulls a nice hole and breaks well he\'ll probably make his own pace. Sharp Humor and Mister Triester both have a turn of foot too but I really don\'t think anyone can run with Sinister. He\'s a run off and will be clear. Its an issue of his readiness to throw the entire 10 poles at them and who wants to try and reel him in when hes significantly leading after 4 poles. If he breaks well and maybe even if he doesn\'t break well, he\'ll be opening ground on these. The horse he\'s gonna impact most is Brother Derek. This could be a very tough race for Brother. They say Derek has been training lights out. He better be, because he won\'t be chasing Dawn of War and Henny Hughes this time.

Long story short, I don\'t think the others have enough pace in them to tickle Sinister. He\'s gonna decide this one on his own and will likely leave some very frustrated horses in his wake.

> runners in the race, I would be concerned about
> this horse.   BDerek also keeps him honest with a
> far turn move.
>
> Without Sinister, this race could  take a
> completely look without a true barnburner in the
> race.
>
>
> And don\'t Think Baffert knows it.  He\'s got two
> other horses that need BDerek to collapse in order
> to have a chance

I don\'t agree that Bob and John and Point Determined need a Bro Derek collapse. Bob and John is not the same horse Derek beat in the Hollywood Futurity. John has come along. He learned a lot Wood Day and has every reason to continue to improve.

That said, I don\'t think Bro Derek is going to appreciate having to run at a horse in front of him. In fact, I don\'t think he\'s gonna like it at all. He\'s not going to enjoy his jockey trying to restrain him and hes likely to get tight seeing a horse in front of him. The worst will be when Solis decides Derek is fighting the rating and turns him loose. That will be the acid test. If Derek hasn\'t already squandered his energy fighting Solis and earnestly sets his sights on the horse in front of him its hard to say how he\'s gonna react when all his running doesn\'t get him any closer. He ran game in the B.C.Juvenile. But the Derby\'s two turns and two extra marks could empty the tank. He may spit the bit.

[spa]

Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can\'t win.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
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> Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can\'t win.

I think some like the Churchill Downs angle and project hes still rounding into form. I could be mistaken, but didn\'t he just get back to where he was at 2?

He looked like the distance got to him. In the next heat, the pace is going to be severe and he likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was a good race, but other than that who has he beaten and is more pace and more distance really going to be better for this horse?

This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can comment. It is a video of the California Derby. My question is twofold:

1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would have been able to catch Sinister Minister but for the rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny Hop. Its Classic), and;

2. Do you think that Sinister got back in gear after the momentum loss and that at the end of the race was on even momentum terms with Cause to Believe again?

What do you think.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/index.html?videonumber=47&videotype=racing

[spa]

Sinister doesn\'t have the foundation to win the big one......You\'re correct when you project the speed in this race and the crush into the first turn. If you believe they all cheat...look at Private Vow.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
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> Sinister doesn\'t have the foundation to win the
> big one......You\'re correct when you project the
> speed in this race and the crush into the first
> turn. If you believe they all cheat...look at
> Private Vow.

I think the time tested requirements are a start at 2. He has one. Granted by just a day. Its almost as if this guy is teasing the traditionalists. Trying to goad them into dismissing him. That rail banging nonsense is another thing. Running with his mouth open down the backstretch still another. He has three runs consecutively this year in stakes. Each one progressively better and they are progressively better for a reason. The last one was a Grade I. Maybe the three favorites weren\'t as strong as many thought, however do you really think Barbaro or Lawyer Ron or Brother Derek would have altered the outcome?

I\'m trying to make up my mind. Thats why I asked the questions that I did. Do you think Cause to Believe gets to him without that rail nonsense and do you think after the rail banging Sinister recouped his momentum late?

Watch the videos of the California Derby and Blue Grass and ask yourself \"What is the difference in the rides?\" Then ask yourself, \"How was he ridden in the San Vincente?\" Also, note the way Sinister gets suspended in the gate before the Bluegrass and how quickly he overcomes it.
 
I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen a horse quite like this. Fascinating.

[Wrongly]

People seem to forget that Bellamy Road still finished 5th last year.  That 5th looks pretty good after going through some of the fastest fractions in derby history and getting hurt during the race.  Sinister Minister might bounce as well but he\'s going to be around 8-1 and still might hit the ticket.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wrongly Wrote:
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> People seem to forget that Bellamy Road still
> finished 5th last year.  That 5th looks pretty
> good after going through some of the fastest
> fractions in derby history and getting hurt during
> the race.  Sinister Minister might bounce as well
> but he\'s going to be around 8-1 and still might
> hit the ticket.

Actually he finished seventh and there was no clear indication he was injured during the race. It was a very subtle \"injury\" and the announcement that he had popped a splint didn\'t take place until three days after the Derby. Heres what Zito said:

B``The bad news is he popped a splint,\'\' Zito said. ``The good news is the X-rays are clean otherwise, there\'s no fractures so he\'ll be back for the big races this summer.\'\'

Bellamy Road, who won the Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths and matched a 32-year-old track record, may have been developing the problem going into the Derby, Zito said. He added that it probably was aggravated during the race.

Lots of \"may have beens\" and \"probablys\" there. Theres the Travers to judge him upon as well. But tend to agree the effort was not absolutely dismal and its not like he didn\'t put in a run. He briefly led the race with about 2 furlongs to go. On Tgraph I suppose it went down as an X. He caught disadvantageous conditions that he wasn\'t predisposed to overcome. The pace clearly was an issue, but he was running on the best part of the track until late.

[tmcdevitt]

Chuckles-

You\'re right,he is NOT Bellamy Road.Not nearly as good. After years of passively reading this board but never posting, this whole SM thing has finally pushed me off the ledge. Here goes;

The study that needs to be done is the following: Across the top 10 tracks in the country, for the last 2 years, calculate the average distance between the winner and last place horse for every dirt race. Seperate into two groups of sprints and routes. What you will likely see is that all the tracks are roughly equal with the exception of Keeneland. Everybody who posts here seems to be talented and knowledgeable handicappers. How often are you left clutching your tickets in your sweaty palms waiting for the outcome of a photo finish at Keeneland??? Virtually never.

It\'s not about whether the track was speed favoring or not on BG day. Keeneland has always produced runaway winners, with incredibly strung out fields, and numbers that are often never repeated again. Whether its the track surface, lack of banking on the turns, lush scenery......who knows. It\'s just not able to be simply captured by saying the KEE track was speed favoring or not on a given day. The track simply produces races that you don\'t see elsewhere.

I can\'t tell you how many tickets I\'ve cashed playing against runaway winners at KEE when they show up at another track, or on hores who turned in inexplicably horrendous efforts at KEE.  The BG is a complete throwout. Sinister Minister is still just a horse with a solitary MAIDEN 5 1/2F, $62.5K Claiming win on his resume, not a 9F Grade 1 winner. And since I was at GG for the Cal Derby (I live about a mile away) I can tell you with certainty that bouncing off the rail did NOT somehow hide his true Grade 1 form. It showed him to be what he really is; A green, one dimensional horse with a solitary Maiden 5 1/2F, $62.5K Claiming win.

Bellamy Road had a 5 in a 2-turn, $200K stakes race as a 2YO, and a slightly negative number in a mile allowance race as a 3YO before the Wood. No comparison.  

Book it; he\'s cloer to last than first in the derby. You\'re a way better handicapper than that Chuckles. The question I struggle with out of the BG is whether BG Cat\'s thoro-pattern can be taken at face value....for all of the reasons listed above