Sinister Minister Bounce

[tmcdevitt]

Having read every single post on SM, I dont think people are discounting him because he ran for a tag.........

[bellsbendboy]

Sinister Minister running for a tag in his second start is a very bad sign indeed. I think he will be pulled up in the Derby, but my real hope is that he does not cause interference or worse. Sweetnorthernsaint on the other hand had good reason to run for a tag. bbb

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having read every single post on SM, I dont think
> people are discounting him because he ran for a
> tag.........

That Tag race doesn\'t bother me. Let me take the liberty of reviewing his races with some commentary.

March 2005 - Sinister Minister is purchased for 40K at the Barretts Select 2YO in training sale.

12/31/05 - Maiden Race Day. They enter Sinister Minister in a maiden special weight. He catchs a wet sealed track. He can\'t get in front and races four wide finishing mid pack beaten 8 lengths. Still its not a horrible effort, his figure isn\'t atrocious. Its a first out 13. The winner clears by 6 so Sinister is only beaten 2-3 lengths for second. The third place finisher in that race is Point of Impact, a Baffert trained 800k yearling. Do you think old Bobby saw some potential in Sinister that race?

1/20/06 - Happy Birthday Sinister Minister!!! He\'s three now and what better way to celebrate than by breaking far outside in a 62,500 maiden claimer. If he had been claimed that race it would have been a good day for the owners. A first place purse, the claiming fee, and remember he only cost 40,000. Storm Cats should be so lucky.

2/12/06 - \"Hiya Bobby\"... Sinister thinks to himself...\"You\'re the best now, the best there ever was and the best there ever will be. I\'m so happy you bought me Bobby. I like you\" Bobby enters Sinister in a Grade II stakes off that maiden win against GULP...TOO MUCH BLING...and tries a rating gambit with Sinister that doesn\'t pan out. Sinister tries to tell Bob, but the words come out all wrong: \"He choked me Bobby, that monkey on my back choked me...I can do better. You know I can.\"

3/11/06 - California Derby Day at Golden Gate Fields. Sinister looks over Cause to Believe\'s Resume and Whinnies, Hey Bobby, this guy over here has never finished worse than 2nd. He\'s won:

The Cavonnier Juvenile
The Bay Meadows Juvenile
The Mill Valley and
The El Camino Real Derby

Hey that last ones a Grade III whats that mean?\"

Sinister is bet down to under 2-1 in the five horse field and he\'s beaten that day after an incident with the rail. He didn\'t bear in. He bolted in and bunny hopped. Still, it was better than it looked.

\"Bobby, I can do better than that. You know I can. Dont\' give up on me.\"

4/15/06 - Bluegrass Day.

\"Whats a Grade I Bobby? They say this race is one and that horse First Samurai has two of them on his resume. That other horse Bluegrass Cat has a grade II and a Grade III. I know what a Grade III is. I just don\'t like the jump out rail in them.\"

Sinister has a change of lead issue but runs through the stretch on a rope.  Steve Haskin has a column with a paragraph titled \"More on the Batty Bluegrass\".  Its worth a read. Some folks are saying. Abberation, toss that kind of race. They came home slow, but it was fast slow and it was honest slow considering the early running. Those interior fractions are very interesting.

Good job Sinister, now you got a Grade I too and its better than the ones that other horse had and if you run big in the next one you\'re going to Claiborne. I\'ll tell you about that later.

[bellsbendboy]

Chuckles  You should spend a bit more time \'capping. I say that because \" I am saying that to myself\"  Their is free TG at Kee tommorrow, and a good looking pick 4 sequence.  As far as Sinister goes... you may have a good pick here. At least he was able to gallop a mile today. Observers note he has lost only about 75 pounds. He  was foolishly fresh, and may be able to work again before God intervenes and scratches him. bbb

[tmcdevitt]

That\'s what I like about you Chuckles; nobody makes a 5 1/2F, 3YO $65K maiden claimer winner sound more like a derby contender than you do. If he runs well I\'ll be the FIRST in line to congratulate you.

I just hope that if he runs up the track we don\'t see a classic Chuckles post saying that you really loved the horse that won all along. I may be giving you too much credit, but I just don\'t believe tha you really like him to win

[tmon]

Last I checked there aren\'t many $65K maidens claimed. Plus I think a maiden that wins a SA $65K maiden race probably would win a straight Maiden at almost any other track.

[hossgnat]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> spa Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can\'t
> win.
>
> I think some like the Churchill Downs angle and
> project hes still rounding into form. I could be
> mistaken, but didn\'t he just get back to where he
> was at 2?
>
> He looked like the distance got to him. In the
> next heat, the pace is going to be severe and he
> likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was a
> good race, but other than that who has he beaten
> and is more pace and more distance really going to
> be better for this horse?
>
> This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can comment.
> It is a video of the California Derby. My question
> is twofold:
>
> 1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would have
> been able to catch Sinister Minister but for the
> rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny Hop.
> Its Classic), and;
>
> 2. Do you think that Sinister got back in gear
> after the momentum loss and that at the end of the
> race was on even momentum terms with Cause to
> Believe again?
>
> What do you think.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

Chuckles,

My answer to 1. is emphatically yes.  I\'ve watched the replay plenty of times as the same question you ask has gnawed at me. But each time I\'ve watched I reach the same conclusion.  Take away the rail foolishness and I think it\'s CTB by a length or two at the wire.

I don\'t have a strong opinion on your second question.  I think it\'s possible SM regained adequate momentum under heavy urging. But CTB was also cruising to the wire at that point. Being on even terms may have been illusory.

It\'s a somewhat moot point though, don\'t you think. We know what SM is all about now and have some feel for what he may be capable of while loose on the lead. It\'s the pressured pace that will characterize his Derby effort that I don\'t think he\'ll appreciate. But perhaps you think he can give them all the slip on the front end, combined with a move forward, even a modest move forward. That\'s not a play I\'ll be making, but it would not be a shocking result. Surprising, definitely.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > spa Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow
> can\'t
> > win.
> >
> > I think some like the Churchill Downs angle
> and
> > project hes still rounding into form. I could
> be
> > mistaken, but didn\'t he just get back to
> where he
> > was at 2?
> >
> > He looked like the distance got to him. In
> the
> > next heat, the pace is going to be severe and
> he
> > likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was
> a
> > good race, but other than that who has he
> beaten
> > and is more pace and more distance really
> going to
> > be better for this horse?
> >
> > This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can
> comment.
> > It is a video of the California Derby. My
> question
> > is twofold:
> >
> > 1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would
> have
> > been able to catch Sinister Minister but for
> the
> > rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny
> Hop.
> > Its Classic), and;
> >
> > 2. Do you think that Sinister got back in
> gear
> > after the momentum loss and that at the end
> of the
> > race was on even momentum terms with Cause
> to
> > Believe again?
> >
> > What do you think.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> Chuckles,
>
> My answer to 1. is emphatically yes.  I\'ve watched
> the replay plenty of times as the same question
> you ask has gnawed at me. But each time I\'ve
> watched I reach the same conclusion.  Take away
> the rail foolishness and I think it\'s CTB by a
> length or two at the wire.
>
> I don\'t have a strong opinion on your second
> question.  I think it\'s possible SM regained
> adequate momentum under heavy urging. But CTB was
> also cruising to the wire at that point. Being on
> even terms may have been illusory.
>
> It\'s a somewhat moot point though, don\'t you
> think. We know what SM is all about now and have
> some feel for what he may be capable of while
> loose on the lead. It\'s the pressured pace that
> will characterize his Derby effort that I don\'t
> think he\'ll appreciate. But perhaps you think he
> can give them all the slip on the front end,
> combined with a move forward, even a modest move
> forward. That\'s not a play I\'ll be making, but it
> would not be a shocking result. Surprising,
> definitely.

I really don\'t think we\'ll see move forwards from the top horses at 10 marks. I\'m not projecting a move forward. I think a two or even three point slip will win. The move forward horses will be Jazil and Steppenwolfer, but they\'ll have to contend with the trip.

I think theres something going on with Sinister in the stretch not related to infirmity and I think he\'d have beaten Cause to Believe by six but for the issue. He almost tried to do it again in the Bluegrass, but the jockey was all over him.

As far as a hot pace. That last one was hot and none of the Derby horses is going to want any of that. assuming a 2:02 Derby track he\'ll get away with 46:3 be clear by three and that will leave plenty in the tank.

If he broke poorly and got blocked, I\'d start eating my ticket right then. But all bettors assume the risk of trouble.

[tmon]

My question is who will pressure SM? Whoever does is toast and then SM is toast. But which jockey will sacrifice his horse to insure SM losing?

[BitPlayer]

Have you been reading the quotes from Dale Romans about his plans for Sharp Humor?

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33211

[davidrex]

Great,Great effort that this horse shows in all his races.
Unfortuneately ,he\'s like a gifted running back coming out of college in a year of many fast backs.
This just doesn\'t appear to be the year for a wire to wire winner like EMBLEM had.
What\'s to profit from him,is nobody is going to steal this race but him,and him will be out of town that day.

[miff]

Bit,

This is not the first time Romans has said this.He may want to take a look a some pace figs. Sin Min is off the charts with Sharp Humor and a couple of others with big early gas.

Of note,it was reported that Gomez tried to snatch Sin Min to no avail. He may be a hot, rank one that puts up a 45 and change on May 6th if the surface is glib.

[congaree1]

I get my pace FIGS, from a friend of mine who created the EXTRA\'s and by far SM is the fastest from the gate with Keyed Entry second.

[NoCarolinaTony]

There you go Congaree. Finally - Sharp Humor First Fraction is not even close to SM. Keyed Entry could be the other horse cycling back to run big in this race.

NC Tony

[congaree1]

Finally, ha