Sinisters giant FIG!

[congaree1]

Just looked at the Rags Pre-Derby/sheets

From looking at the FIG they gave Sinister Minister, he might have the fastest Fig ever on Thorograph. We shall see.

[johndrj]

there is no track in the country that has horses winning of by a huge margain of victory like kee.  that aught to be enough evidence that those races are seldom as good as they \"appear\".

[high roller]

WELL WHAT WAS THE FIG?

[kev]

Neg  1 3/4

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

johndrj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> there is no track in the country that has horses
> winning of by a huge margain of victory like kee.
> that aught to be enough evidence that those races
> are seldom as good as they \"appear\".\'

Theres another good betting angle. As soon as it becomes clear to the masses that there is a statistical trend which has tended to indicated the Derby winner or winner of any race and the public latches onto that trend, its time to buck it. The rewards of bucking a trend can\'t be overstated. I call it Chaos Theory, but of course you have to have the right horse.

[richiebee]

Fusaichi Chuckasus:

   To restate your chaos theory, the most recent trend in the Derby has been the lack of any identifiable trend.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fusaichi Chuckasus:
>
>    To restate your chaos theory, the most recent
> trend in the Derby has been the lack of any
> identifiable trend.

Raise a Ritchie, I would tend to agree with the lack of \"identifiable trend\" statement other than it generally takes a good horse. Maybe you can except Giacomo from that trend however.

Chaos theory may or my not have application to a Keeneland race winner, just depending upon how good a horse you think the Keeneland race winner is. I certainly won\'t make a blanket statement that no winner at Keeneland can be taken seriously.

I\'m going to continue to review the Blue Grass and if I note anything odd, I\'ll comment upon it. For the time being it appears it was a marvelous race, far exceeding anything done on the West Coast. Those that cashed the Blue Grass would be lying if they didn\'t admit part of the cash involved disdain for the Blue Grass favorites. Once past the likes of First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat however, the West Coasters are dead in the sights. They\'ve been vastly overrated but for one horse and now that horse is conditionally disadvantaged even before the post positions are drawn.

CtC

[congaree1]

Excluding Sinister\'s single race, Sweetnorthernsaint is the fastest horse in the race. His last was very fast and a bounce is possible, but his other FIG\'s lay over this field. The thing is what style will he use in the race?  My guess is he will be off the pace in a stalking mid pack style because of the other speed in the race.

[richiebee]

CTC:

   I am already committed to at least a token wager on SM based on the presence of Stick to Beauty in his bloodline. He was working brilliantly leading up to the BG; will be interested to see if Baffert slows him down in the AM, giving him the proverbial longer, slower, stamina building works, and wonder how SM will react to this if that is the case.

   Still would love to see PVal on this beast.

[congaree1]

Slow horses won the DERBY last year. TWo horses in this race are much faster then the rest, kind of like last year. I can\'t imagine another collapse. But we still have to handicap the race, and there are a couple in here with very nice lines the might go forward or might not. My opinion is no line will tell you if one is or isn\'t, it\'s a educated guess at best. I play what horses have run on average,not guessing one is going forward or back.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richiebee,

Father Hogan at Fordham U,  who taught Ecomomics and was an advisor to Kennedy\'s admin, used to often speak of the \"Chaos Theory\" and the lack of identifiable trends can be a leading indicator in and of itself.

The best \"value\" races to bet are Chaos races. I think I learned that one at Yonkers raceway University after classes up the Mosholu Parkway.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Chuckles,

Didn\'t the west coast horses invade Aqueduct and feast on the east Wood day?

So if lets say for argument sake SM is the west coast\'s (or Baffert\'s) third string, what does it say for the Florida/NY east coast horses in general? Stong Contender BG CAt and 1st Sam were all considered top notch going into the Bluegrass.

At this point I\', leaning to the west coast horses over the east coast, and the professional Lawyer Ron (who may be a little slow). Don\'t know what to make of Sweetnorthernsaint yet. My estemed fellow poster Michael D is high on this one, so I have to take note. I thought the Hawthorne race was won over a very very weak feild so I don\'t know what you can take from that.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

NCT:

    The only thing you should have learned at Yonkers is that in terms of credibility Harness Racing is one step ahead of the World Wrestling Federation and should be avoided at all costs. The last time I was at Yonkers was for the simo of the (95?) BC which included the tragic Go for Wand race and Dayjur snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with his flying leap.

    Still going to make regular trips to Lexington after Keeneland goes to Polyestertrack?

    I already know what will happen the first time I play this \"Grand Slam\" nonsense: The first 3 animals, who I need only to hit the board, will all win, and my \"clean up\" horse will run off the board.

    Right now I am suffering with gout in my left foot and sciatica in my right leg; if I was Catholic I would attribute this to God punishing me for enjoying life so much. Won\'t be able to golf, so will make the best of a tough situation, download some gratis TGs and head for Park Ozone

[Kasept]

Richie..

The gout must be affecting your memory... Wand/Dayjur/Unbridled was \'90!! That was a day that is best forgotten.. It also included the heart attack/collapse of Mark Reid\'s Mr. Nickerson who had become a real favorite of mine.

I think I\'ve posted the link to this before, but here\'s my somewhat maudlin recollection of BC \'90, an ode to Nick and Wand...


MINOR PHILLY PARK STAKE EVOKES MEMORIES
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/message/162


Hope you\'re feeling better after the trip to \'Little Kingston\' (AQU)..

Steve



richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NCT:
>
>     The only thing you should have learned at
> Yonkers is that in terms of credibility Harness
> Racing is one step ahead of the World Wrestling
> Federation and should be avoided at all costs. The
> last time I was at Yonkers was for the simo of the
> (95?) BC which included the tragic Go for Wand
> race and Dayjur snatching defeat from the jaws of
> victory with his flying leap.

[richiebee]

Steve:

     Thank you for the correction. All of these things seem like they happened yesterday. I remember waking up early one June or July morning in 90 and watching Dayjur run in an English sprint race which was simo\'d to Monmouth.

      It was a 5f race on the flat, and they kept switching camera angles. It seemed like each time they changed angles, Dayjur increased his lead.

      I remember the roughly run sprint in 90 led to the order in which the BC races were run being changed; the Sprint had traditionally been the opener. For some reason they though it would be safer if it was run later in the day; I never understood their reasoning.