Sinisters giant FIG!

[miff]

Kev posted that the TG fig was neg 1 3/4. If so, for the first time I can remember,TG rates Sin Mins performance SLOWER than the Rags fig by app 5+ lenghts and Beyer by app 6 lenghts, adjusted, scale to scale(no longer reliable)

[miff]

Richiebee,

I guarantee you will be pain free by the end of the second race IF you hit the double. Good luck on the Belt which has been murder coming home, sun glare.

[TGJB]

Miff-- that\'s not what we gave SM, Kev must have been talking about the Rag figure. Also, he would have no way to get the figure from us, and if he somehow got it and posted it he would be banned for life. No joke.

[miff]

JB,

Honest, I did not believe it,but thought Kev was an employee of TG.I guess it\'s a matter of how fast you really want to make it. Andy trumped Mark Hopkins and others at Beyer Speed Figs who thought 118-120 was the right call,I heard.

Mike

[kev]

I got it from the Rag\'s site Len wrote this

\"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that he\'s a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest in the Derby.\"

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

kev Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I got it from the Rag\'s site Len wrote this
>
> \"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1
> 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that
> he\'s a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest
> in the Derby.\"
>


Sinister Ministers \"history\"? I wonder what history the inimitable Len is referring to? The horse has only run five times:

His first race, he broke well but then ran wide with the pack before fading.

His second race they dropped him for a tag and from an outside post and after a pace battle he ran as well as the winner in his first start factoring the track variant.

His third race and first start for Baffert he failed to break cleanly for the first time and ran wide into a buzz saw named Too Much Bling. Was it bounce that caused the bad break? Unfitness? Fatigue? Maybe, but I don\'t think so.

Fourth race was the rail-banging incident vs. Cause to Believe. There was a hefty jump in the level of competition there and he came close to pulling it off. I guess Len anticipated a bounce in the Bluegrass because he rated Sinister Minister 6th, below Bluegrass Cat, Strong Contender and First Samurai. I guess Len was all over the Sinister Minister bounce play then as he is now.

Some folks keyed Sinister Minister to win Len. When you pick a winner, it's a heckuva lot easier to factor the exotics.

Nevertheless, nice call on the S.M. Derby bounce. You\'ve staked out a position that the 7th betting choice can\'t win.

Attaboy

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Kasept Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > Richie..
>
> The gout must be affecting your memory...
> Wand/Dayjur/Unbridled was \'90!! That was a day
> that is best forgotten.. It also included the
> heart attack/collapse of Mark Reid\'s Mr. Nickerson
> who had become a real favorite of mine.
>
> I think I\'ve posted the link to this before, but
> here\'s my somewhat maudlin recollection of BC \'90,
> an ode to Nick and Wand...
>
>
> MINOR PHILLY PARK STAKE EVOKES MEMORIES
>
>
>
> Hope you\'re feeling better after the trip to
> \'Little Kingston\' (AQU)..
>
> Steve
>
>
>
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > NCT:
> >
> >     The only thing you should have learned
> at
> > Yonkers is that in terms of credibility
> Harness
> > Racing is one step ahead of the World
> Wrestling
> > Federation and should be avoided at all
> costs. The
> > last time I was at Yonkers was for the simo
> of the
> > (95?) BC which included the tragic Go for
> Wand
> > race and Dayjur snatching defeat from the
> jaws of
> > victory with his flying leap.
>
>
>


Never read that before Kasept. Well written and very poignant.

I think I had Mr. Nickerson in my bet too, but the horse that would have won that sprint most times was Glitterman. He was a little more lucky than Mr. Nickerson, but not much more. He retired injured out of that race and Glitterman wasn\'t even the best sprinter in the nation around that time. It was a Ziadie trainee named Hooting Star. Though that one may have been more suited to 7 panels.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Didn\'t the west coast horses invade Aqueduct and
> feast on the east Wood day?
>
> So if lets say for argument sake SM is the west
> coast\'s (or Baffert\'s) third string, what does it
> say for the Florida/NY east coast horses in
> general? Stong Contender BG CAt and 1st Sam were
> all considered top notch going into the
> Bluegrass.
>
> At this point I\', leaning to the west coast horses
> over the east coast, and the professional Lawyer
> Ron (who may be a little slow). Don\'t know what to
> make of Sweetnorthernsaint yet. My estemed fellow
> poster Michael D is high on this one, so I have to
> take note. I thought the Hawthorne race was won
> over a very very weak feild so I don\'t know what
> you can take from that.
>
> NC Tony

Tony, to my knowledge the only West Coast invaders Wood Day were Bob and John and Too Much Bling. Shipping is expensive and obviously you have to think you have a good reason to ship. Clearly Baffert made the right calls with Sinister Minister and Bob and John, but Too Much Bling had already been out east. He\'s not ducked anyone. Its been more a matter of him coming to hand in my opinion. He lost to First Samurai once. Now I think he\'d crush him.

As far Sinister being Baffert\'s third string, I\'m not sure of that. With hindsight you have to figure he would have run a dilly in the Santa Anita Derby, but by shipping two out of town Baffert took a 2nd in the S.A. Derby and two  firsts and got 3 horses into the Derby. Baffert also said the following:

Rafael Bejarano would ride Point Determined, Bafffert said, with Espinoza on Sinister Minister and Garrett Gomez aboard Bob and John, although that wasn\'t engraved in stone as of Wednesday morning. \"It depends on what happens between now and then,\" Baffert said. \"I\'m going to go with my gut.\"


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33107

Which leads me to believe that Baffert is jockeying the jockeys to suit his horses and that the commitments may be far less bilateral than many think. The \"Gut\" comment interests me. Obviously Espinoza knows his way around the Churchill oval and will have the proper timing for the race. Additionally, he was able to conserve a previous horses speed somewhat and that is clearly something Baffert is factoring.

As far as the West Coast horses being dominant, I\'m less sure of that. Personally I\'m predicting a mega flop for the wise guy horse A.P. Warrior and I\'ve downgraded Brother Derek substantially. I\'m getting very bad vibes about him, even though I think hes a good horse in the right circumstances.

Baffert goes with his gut, I don\'t ignore the vibes.

[Kasept]

CTC..

Thx.. Appreciate the compliment and you taking the time to read it.

Forgot about Glitterman... That was a really contentious group of sprinters in \'90..

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Good post. Speaking of good vibes.

I had very Good Vibes today at Kee.

R7 and R9 Cha Ching a ling aling,

The Barclay Tagg Horse was very professional and very good today. he\'s one to watch for sure in the derby. Go Now showed a lot of heart much to my consternation (I had the 5 at 54-1 in 2nd,3rd,4th slots). The payouts with him second would have been significantly better.

Chuckles, I am having the same vibes as you about Sin Min. Did you see the Steve Klein Article (Sunday DRF) speaking of Sin Min Subject and KEE Detractors. He said it better than I could.

NC Tony

[bellsbendboy]

Chuck and Tony you are smoking your shorts. Seems to me Showing Up was all out to get to a multiple maiden claimer in the SLOWEST running of the Lexington since its inception. This colt has higher leg action than a can-can dancer and if Barclay foolishly runs him in Louisville he will be coupled with Barbaro anyway.

As far as Sinister he came out of his race like he had been in a car wreck. He can\'t get ten poles riding in a van. bbb

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck and Tony you are smoking your shorts. Seems
> to me Showing Up was all out to get to a multiple
> maiden claimer in the SLOWEST running of the
> Lexington since its inception. This colt has
> higher leg action than a can-can dancer and if
> Barclay foolishly runs him in Louisville he will
> be coupled with Barbaro anyway.
>
> As far as Sinister he came out of his race like he
> had been in a car wreck. He can\'t get ten poles
> riding in a van. bbb

Bellsbend, I did not pick up a overly high leg action. But I did see a leg casting out on one of the horses in the stretch. I\'m not sure which yet. The time doesn\'t bother me, but its a card that will be reviewed carefully. I liked his pace style for this Derby.

Regardless of where they were three months ago, these horses are not claimers now. Its not the horses fault that their trainers couldn\'t see the potential in them and risked them foolishly.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> Good post. Speaking of good vibes.
>
> I had very Good Vibes today at Kee.
>
> R7 and R9 Cha Ching a ling aling,
>
> The Barclay Tagg Horse was very professional and
> very good today. he\'s one to watch for sure in the
> derby. Go Now showed a lot of heart much to my
> consternation (I had the 5 at 54-1 in 2nd,3rd,4th
> slots). The payouts with him second would have
> been significantly better.
>
> Chuckles, I am having the same vibes as you about
> Sin Min. Did you see the Steve Klein Article
> (Sunday DRF) speaking of Sin Min Subject and KEE
> Detractors. He said it better than I could.
>
> NC Tony
>


I\'ve been engaged in a colloquy with Klein over some of the prospects. Most recently Sinister Minister. I did not see that article. He\'s a great writer and not afraid to radically alter his views and I respect his opinion. My only reservation is that working for that concern that he does I think there's subtle influence to happy talk up the Kentucky Bluebloods on the trail that will later be aimed for breeding.

I\'ll try and locate that article now

p.s. congrates on those races. I\'m not much of a turf betting man and I avoid turf sprints with a passion.

Bear Character was 39-1 and Go Now is a Zito horse. But I know what youre saying. Congrats on that. You were all over that lexington.

[BitPlayer]

BBB -

I don\'t think Showing Up and Barbaro (or Private Vow and Storm Treasure for that matter) will be coupled.  The following is from the Kentucky horse racing rules (courtesy of Google):

\"In thoroughbred stakes races with added money of $100,000 or more, permission may be granted by the stewards to uncouple mutuel entries of horses sharing common ties through training or ownership or both.\"

[richiebee]

Or maybe Showing Up isn\'t going to Show Up.

Maybe hes an insurance policy against raceday illness or injury to Barbaro. Maybe he\'s being used to bump someone off the bubble, a Derby day scratch, as a savvy owner decreases the field size.

I guess with 24 hour advance wagering you have to live with it.

Gamesmanship