We learned a lot today

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

We learned an Honour and Glory coming off a wet strip Gulfstream win is no bargain at odds on upon a wet strip elsewhere.

We learned that Bob Baffert is the once and future King and no one else compares.

We learned that Brother Derek is a heckuva horse with things his own way. Stevie Wonder was never gonna beat this horse and not many others will either.

We learned that the Illinois Derby is still one of the select paths to greatness, even for another horse that can\'t breed off his resume.

[Silver Charm]

I am not sure that the Wet Strip angle is what got Keyed Entry beat, looks a little like Value Plus did a couple of years.

I don\'t know about the no one else compares comment on Baffert but he was patient with Bob and John all spring, has a quality win on the horses resume, did the owner right with his handling. The bullet work tipped his hand and there may be more coming. He\'ll need them.

Brother Derek looked good and Hendricks is once again proving, give a good horse to a good trainer and a good guy and he will do a good job. (See Servis and Ricthie)

Sweetnorthernsaint has a bad habit of running away from his field when he turns for home in front. You think he will be in same spot on Derby Day.

Jerry I downloaded the Full Card from Hawthorne and did not get the Ostrich Race. I would like a refund.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am not sure that the Wet Strip angle is what got
> Keyed Entry beat, looks a little like Value Plus
> did a couple of years.

The difference is Value Plus caved in the Wood. Keyed Entry was beaten 2 lengths I think. Thats a must go scenario with the hope of catching a speed surface Derby Day. The Blue Monkey is making all the calls now.


>
> I don\'t know about the no one else compares
> comment on Baffert but he was patient with Bob and
> John all spring, has a quality win on the horses
> resume, did the owner right with his handling. The
> bullet work tipped his hand and there may be more
> coming. He\'ll need them.

Bob and John is not my favorite. Not saying I won\'t bet him just yet, but hes a good horse and has been a fast horse since the Sham. To my eye his pattern is Sham of 1-2, Regression due to trouble in the San Felipe to a 3.1 and now a an improvement to the zero or less range. I\'ll leave that one to T Graph. That was the only 2 turn race and I\'m still working on it. Point Determined is also a good horse on the improve. Baffert is dangerous, but I can\'t say yet this is his year.

 
> Brother Derek looked good and Hendricks is once
> again proving, give a good horse to a good trainer
> and a good guy and he will do a good job. (See
> Servis and Ricthie)
>
> Sweetnorthernsaint has a bad habit of running away
> from his field when he turns for home in front.
> You think he will be in same spot on Derby Day.

Saint absolutely cruised, check out the final eighth fraction. He\'s your Derby winner with a trip unless you want to project bounce. I dont\' care how fast he ran, he aint gonna bounce. Hes bounceproof baby. He\'s anti March Madness.

> Jerry I downloaded the Full Card from Hawthorne
> and did not get the Ostrich Race. I would like a
> refund.

The Ostrich Race was last Saturday. It was called the Florida Derby.

gotta learn to spell, its the oatmeal stout

[Silver Charm]

Not to debate the figure side of things regarding the Sham but go back and look between the Sham and the San Rafael. Point Determined was worked faster than Bob and John on every work. Bob and John was not primed on San Rafael Day, Point Determined was. Pay close attention to the intensity of Bob and Johns training over the next four weeks. It will tell you all you need to know.

Let me know what the quit figure is for the Wood.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not to debate the figure side of things regarding
> the Sham but go back and look between the Sham and
> the San Rafael. Point Determined was worked faster
> than Bob and John on every work. Bob and John was
> not primed on San Rafael Day, Point Determined
> was. Pay close attention to the intensity of Bob
> and Johns training over the next four weeks. It
> will tell you all you need to know.
>
> Let me know what the quit figure is for the Wood.
>
>


Not sure I share your sentiments about the \"San Felipe\". I know, all those \"San\" races are hard to distinguish. My belief is that Bob and John had a very troubled trip and ran well to finish where he did. I think Baffert was pleased with the race adn rewarded him with a very expensive ship to New York. It was money well spent. If I recall correctly he sent Conagree to New York too and that one ran a game Third in the Derby after beating the eventual Derby winner.

Isn\'t it delicious how in 2005 we had a remarkable Wood raw race time that everyone proclaimed was the equaling of Riva Ridges efforts and this year we have an absolutely pedestrian time that everyone is pointing to and suggesting fraud, apparently including the illustrious Brad Free. But there are variables to consider. Bob and John is an honest horse and that was an honest race.

[miff]

Silver,

I had the binocs on Bob and John and he did not have a smooth first eighth. Gomez had to take a hold when he kinda got sandwiched early and then move outside and chased. Ran well, just think he has too many tougher runners to overtake in the next 4 weeks and he\'s still a little immature.He pulled up quickly after the wire and was a little goofy.

[Silver Charm]

Troubled trip or not facts are facts. Start from 2/26/06 and begin working forward. Note who he then worked faster on 4/2/06.

Bob and John
 04/02/2006  SA   6F  1:11.20  Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/27/2006  SA   4F  :47.80   Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/15/2006  SA   4F  :48.60   Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/10/2006  SA   5F  :58.80   Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/05/2006  SA   5F  :59.60   Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/26/2006  SA   4F  :48.00   Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/21/2006  SA   4F  :49.40   Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/14/2006  SA   3F  :36.40   Dirt  Fast  H    
 01/30/2006  SA   4F  :47.60   Dirt  Fast  B    
 01/14/2006  SA   6F  1:14.40  Dirt  Fast  H  

Point Determined
 04/02/2006 SA   5F  :59.80    Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/27/2006  SA   4F  :46.80   Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/15/2006  SA   4F  :47.80   Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/10/2006  SA   6F  1:11.80  Dirt  Fast  H    
 03/05/2006  SA   5F  1:00.00  Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/26/2006  SA   4F  :47.00   Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/13/2006  SA   4F  :47.00   Dirt  Fast  H    
 01/30/2006  SA   5F  :59.60   Dirt  Fast  H    
 01/25/2006  SA   4F  :49.80   Dirt  Fast  H    

The ship was cheap because he was running for second money at Santa Anita.

[Silver Charm]

You mean his lumbering style will have problems in a 20 horse field on Derby Day. Particularly one that could be loaded with early speed.

I tend to agree. But he is a nice horse and Baffert has done a good job with him.

[Uncle Buck]

Sweetnorthernsaint gobbles ground like Skip Away did, excepts he\'s even more athletic...much like a swimmer\'s physique. I think this horse is very special. Not sure what was up on Gotham Day, but he found his customary \"second gear\" in the stretch today but more importantly showed rate-ability. I see a nice trip being worked out at Churchill. If he can draw posts 1-10 at Louisville I will be loving my $100 35-1 future!!!! Might not even be able to sleep the night before.

I can\'t wait for May. I feel like a partner on this one being that I hand picked him off his maiden breaker. I still have yet to see a horse run this year (of any age or surface) that has the fluid stride this one does...

And to think I could have had him for $50G last year!!!!! Doh!!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> Sweetnorthernsaint gobbles ground like Skip Away
> did, excepts he\'s even more athletic...much like a
> swimmer\'s physique. I think this horse is very
> special. Not sure what was up on Gotham Day, but
> he found his customary \"second gear\" in the
> stretch today but more importantly showed
> rate-ability. I see a nice trip being worked out
> at Churchill. If he can draw posts 1-10 at
> Louisville I will be loving my $100 35-1
> future!!!! Might not even be able to sleep the
> night before.
>
> I can\'t wait for May. I feel like a partner on
> this one being that I hand picked him off his
> maiden breaker. I still have yet to see a horse
> run this year (of any age or surface) that has the
> fluid stride this one does...
>
> And to think I could have had him for $50G last
> year!!!!! Doh!!!!
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/08/06 10:19PM by
> Uncle Buck.

Gotham day was an inner tube short run to the first turn and a bias to front horses. Trouble will impact even good horses, but what was significant is that he was coming late and certainly would have won at 9 marks even on that track.

Bob and John\'s San Felipe is testament to what trouble can do to a horse.....its why you really need a clean run or a superior horse and sometimes both to win the Derby.

I liked Saint as soon as realized the what the split variant said of his sprint win January 9th. But didn\'t have ur conviction to bet him. I hope you cash that one. They are belly aching about the Illinois Derby pace but they are mistaken it was legit. The track was slow and that time was legit on that track. Hollendorfer is a wannabe

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Shhhhh Be very quiet when you use the word bias, you might stir up a long drawn out conversation.

I played the race very stupidly. I loved Jasil but only played him on top of everything than ran 1-2+4. Ohh well.

NC Tony

[miff]

By the way, Jazil\'s explosion was run in a rousing 40.50 for the last three eights with a stretch tail wind (he gained app 10 lenghts, from memory) The pace was fast for those conditions and surface.Harness horses at the Meadowlands ran their last three eighths in about the same split last night, to put things in perspective.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> By the way, Jazil\'s explosion was run in a rousing
> 40.50 for the last three eights with a stretch
> tail wind (he gained app 10 lenghts, from memory)
> The pace was fast for those conditions and
> surface.Harness horses at the Meadowlands ran
> their last three eighths in about the same split
> last night, to put things in perspective.

Aqueduct, Saturday April 8th, 2006
Track: Sloppy/Sealed, all day

only two races had faster 6 furlong fractional calls than the Wood. They were the Bayshore, where the best sprinter in the country ran and the Carter. The Wood was racehorse fast. They were motoring. The track was deep and tiring and the more doubters force scrutiny of that card the better the Wood looks. Keyed Entry should run in the Derby and Bob and John and Jazil moved further up. Its gonna be a wing dinger for the placing horses in the Derby, even if the winner is about a lock.

[miff]

Chuck,

I think the Wood was an ok performance but Jazil\'s late run was more an optical illusion than it was fast. Don\'t forget KE and Bob and John were going a fast pace for the day and were slowing dramatically when Jazil came.

Incidentally, Pletcher stated to DRF that he will decide in a few days if KE is going to the Derby. Prado bailed off in favor of Barbaro and Pletcher was \"disappointed\" in KE\'s performance.

[alm]

About the only broad stroke statistic that seems to mean something year-to-year is the one that suggests the Derby winner will have lost his final prep.  Yesterday\'s races (and the Florida Derby) will probably fall into that category when we view the Derby in retrospect.

The impressions given by the losers in yesterday\'s races left me with two worth recalling during the next few weeks.  (Not that impressions mean more than rational analysis.)

Point Determined did wierd things at Santa Anita, going to sleep in the turn, but waking up down the lane.  He gave the impression of being the real thing, using this race as a proper prep.

AP Warrior may be the bet of the two, however.  Santa Anita has been won often by horses like Brother Derek and he impresses me about as much as several in the past who went nowhere at Churchill.  AP Warrior chased the winner into a paceless pace, used great acceleration to catch him and then tired just the way one would expect in that situation.  Maybe the best prep possible for the big one.

The horses running in the Mid West and on the East Coast won\'t count this year and will be running for third and fourth.  None of them impressed at all.