We learned a lot today

[big18741]

Actually Jazil ran his last 3/8ths in 37.09

He went 6f in 114.75 and finished 151.84

[miff]

Big,

From memory, I had him making up app 10 lenghts. You checked and it\'s app 14.Thanks

Mike

[Michael D.]

was the wood the big dance for baffert\'s B&J? anybody get the feeling that april 8 was for the mcnairs, but may 6 will be for the lewis family?

will jazil close with that same rush after running ten wide over a souped up derby day track?

1:23 and change for those juiced up speedballs in the carter? how brutal were those conditions?

can bro derek do that for another 1/8th?

the saint is a star. is he athletic enough to do his thing in a 20 horse field though?
....

just can\'t take a strong stand yet. still have two big races next w/e, and discreet cat\'s ship and works.

 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I think the Wood was an ok performance but Jazil\'s
> late run was more an optical illusion than it was
> fast. Don\'t forget KE and Bob and John were going
> a fast pace for the day and were slowing
> dramatically when Jazil came.

Miff, I share your concerns about Jazil\'s pace style and whether more distance and more traffic and the unlikelihood of him getting the Wood trip will allow him to make up the difference on Bob and John. Factoring that Bob and John is most certainly not a plodder. I read several posts about Bob & John\'s plodding, lagging behind style but to my eye he\'s gonna have a very good pace style for this Derby. He\'s also running into some trouble and fairing pretty well. Jazil however will be on some of my tickets. Maybe even as high as second. I\'m not sure yet.

 
> Incidentally, Pletcher stated to DRF that he will
> decide in a few days if KE is going to the Derby.
> Prado bailed off in favor of Barbaro and Pletcher
> was \"disappointed\" in KE\'s performance.

I read what Pletcher said. He expected to win that Wood with the tactical advantage he had. What happened is that Bob and John brought the race to Keyed Entry and there was nothing Key could do. But Key ran well. He ran very well and if Churchill Downs is speed favoring that first Saturday in May a horse can\'t win if a horse doesn\'t run. Ask Lukas about running as many as you can get in. Things happen in that race.

[Silver Charm]

>but to my eye he\'s gonna have a very good pace style for this Derby.

You already know what the pace is going to be four weeks from today.

Interesting.........

The race yesterday was nearly an allout sprint for Bob and John as you said because he took the race to Keyed Entry. As I have said more than once on this Board recently with Baffert the works tell the story. Bob and John has not been trained that hard either because the trainer is waiting or the horse can\'t take it. Watch him over the next four weeks.

The last horse I can remember Baffert put thru a lung conditioning pace pressing trip prep.

Silver Charm.......

[richiebee]

Chuckretariat:

  In your original \"We learned a lot today\" post, you opened with the following observation: \"We learned an Honor and Glory coming off a wet strip Gulfstream win is no bargain at odds on upon a wet strip elsewhere\". Now it seems as if you are willing to count KE as a contender at the Derby.

  With apologies to Indulto, I notice plenty of post prep prevarication from an always prepared but sometimes preposterous prolific poster.

  H and G is by Relaunch, KE should have relished the goo yesterday, as he did at the Gulf. (B and J, by Seeking the Gold (Mr P.), also had a right to move up in the wet). Watching the rerun, JD Bailey stated that KE probably didn\'t want 9 \"marks\". Prado put on his Barbaro baseball cap as soon as his feet hit terra firma after dismounting.

  True, Pletcher will probably employ the Zito strategy and show up May 6 with 2 forwards, 2 guards and a center. But this Derby thing is more than a monkey on his back, it may be more like Ahab\'s great fish, er... mammal.

  They got a barn burner going on down at Augusta Downs, with a lot of the highweights in with a chance at the quarter pole...  

[miff]

Chuck,

Bob and John is a long striding one paced type and he is not quick at all. I\'ll assume he ran a top yesterday. I guess you have not seen his pace figs but he is not as QUICK as:

Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sweetnsaint
Barbaro
Sharp Humor
Discreet Cat
Keyed Entry


I would be very concerned about his ability to make position in a 20 horse field loaded with gas.I\'ve seen all his races and never saw him really quicken.  I would think his best shot would be to trip out, stalking from just off the leader, like yesterday but I can\'t see that in my minds eye with the above group.I know you liked the Wood alot, I thought it was OK.

It\'s still early and the next 24-72 hours will tell something about how they all came out of yesterdays races.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckretariat:
>
>   In your original \"We learned a lot today\" post,
> you opened with the following observation: \"We
> learned an Honor and Glory coming off a wet strip
> Gulfstream win is no bargain at odds on upon a wet
> strip elsewhere\". Now it seems as if you are
> willing to count KE as a contender at the Derby.
>
>   With apologies to Indulto, I notice plenty of
> post prep prevarication from an always prepared
> but sometimes preposterous prolific poster.
>
>   H and G is by Relaunch, KE should have relished
> the goo yesterday, as he did at the Gulf. (B and
> J, by Seeking the Gold (Mr P.), also had a right
> to move up in the wet). Watching the rerun, JD
> Bailey stated that KE probably didn\'t want 9
> \"marks\". Prado put on his Barbaro baseball cap as
> soon as his feet hit terra firma after
> dismounting.
>
>   True, Pletcher will probably employ the Zito
> strategy and show up May 6 with 2 forwards, 2
> guards and a center. But this Derby thing is more
> than a monkey on his back, it may be more like
> Ahab\'s great fish, er... mammal.
>
>   They got a barn burner going on down at Augusta
> Downs, with a lot of the highweights in with a
> chance at the quarter pole...  
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/09/06 03:57PM by
> richiebee.

Richie, I\'m pretty sure Todd Pletcher reads this board. I\'m trying to buck him up into running Keyman in the Derby. I want him in that race.

If Derby Day catches a 1985 type track can Keyman win? Yeah, he can win. You bet he can win. He\'s got the fastest figure before yesterday of any of the Nominees. He\'s out of a wonderful Cryptoclearance mare But, did I make him part of my Top Ten minus 6? Did I send it in upon him big time in the Wood?

Will he be my Key? Prolly not, but that doesnt mean Toddini can\'t work the magic baby.

Yeah, that blue monkey is looking more and more like a silverback gorilla. Check out the number of Pletcher influenced purchases this year and how many of them are running:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/futures/pps/tc_noms8.pdf

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Bob and John is a long striding one paced type and
> he is not quick at all. I\'ll assume he ran a top
> yesterday. I guess you have not seen his pace figs
> but he is not as QUICK as:
>
> Brother Derek
> Lawyer Ron
> Sweetnsaint
> Barbaro
> Sharp Humor
> Discreet Cat
> Keyed Entry
>
>
> I would be very concerned about his ability to
> make position in a 20 horse field loaded with
> gas.I\'ve seen all his races and never saw him
> really quicken.  I would think his best shot would
> be to trip out, stalking from just off the leader,
> like yesterday but I can\'t see that in my minds
> eye with the above group.I know you liked the Wood
> alot, I thought it was OK.
>
> It\'s still early and the next 24-72 hours will
> tell something about how they all came out of
> yesterdays races.

With the exception of Saint, I tend to agree with you that Bob & John does not have the pace numbers of those horses. And you may be correct in saying that he does not have an explosive late move. However, he has the type of tactical speed that works well in the Derby and unlike many, he is bred to make the trip. He\'ll be positioned to make first run on the tiring pace setters. He\'ll have to find a way to outgame one very good horse with the same likely trip though.

missed discreet cat in there. not sure about him have nothing to judge him on really.

[Silver Charm]

Most of these horses will be asked to ship in to surroundings they have never been in, bed down, adjust and quickly become medicated, with Ky\'s liberal rules, with more drugs than the average Woodstock attendee.

The next 6-7 days will tell everyone a lot.

[miff]

\"Most of these horses will be asked to ship in to surroundings they have never been in, bed down, adjust and quickly become medicated, with Ky\'s liberal rules, with more drugs than the average Woodstock attendee\"

Silver,

You forgot ....and carry more weight than ever before, race for the first time at 10f, a new surface and 100k plus loons screaming and carrying on.

Piece of cake picking the winner!

[richiebee]

Spend a Chuck:

     Yes, Crypto is a known source of stamina, having produced many ponderous plodders over the years. But my last perusal of the BloodHorse revealed that Crypto is not ranked among the top 50 broodmare sires...

     As to Discreet Cat, would be surprised if you would fall victim to all that hype. IMO, most of the field that he beat in the desert would have struggled in a N1X heat at Gulfstream. If Sheik Mo wants to smell the roses, he will eventually need to swallow his pride and enlist the help of a proven (American) Derby trainer.

     What will be interesting now is to see which trainers/ colts go directly to CD to acclimate and which trainers play the \"I\'m going to stay at home where my colt is comfortable\" card.

[richiebee]

SC:

  Don\'t know what you mean about Woodstock... I was there, I think.

[big18741]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> was the wood the big dance for baffert\'s B&J?
> anybody get the feeling that april 8 was for the
> mcnairs, but may 6 will be for the lewis family?

If Gomez ditches Bob and John to get back on Point Determined who he sat on  first time in the San Felipe you\'ll have your answer.PD has the right style and breeding for the race.All of the fast ones will be fighting to carve out the same trip.Point Determined just has to hang back and finish strong.His Santa Anita probably doesn\'t have him fast enough,but he\'s headed in the right direction.Have to check on it in the archives,but I think the Baffert Derby winners all jumped up on Derby day,and so did Cavonnier.
 
> can bro derek do that for another 1/8th?
>
> Don\'t like the dripping kidney sweat going to the post in every race he\'s run this year.It hasn\'t hurt him yet,but he gets a whole new scene at Churchill.If he\'s that keyed up at SA he might be toast before the post parade at Churchill.Throw in another 1/8th and a bunch of fast horses who have similar styles and he\'s a favorite who can run off the board.



 
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[big18741]

Cavonnier jumped up 2 pts in the Derby
Silver Charm 2.75 pt new top at Churchill
Real Quiet  paired
War Emblem 1.5 point new top in the Derby after Baffert got him.