ROTW

[davidrex]

greely gets put up to 1st and 2nd slot.
Giacamo a bissle on top and sprinkled thoroughly to 4th
Ulstntome and Canteen a dab from 2nd to 4th
Remember what Shanahan said last week about outside posts and have pulled both Wilko and High Limit.

[big18741]

Liking Greeleys Galaxy over:

Top This and That
Hockey the General
Ulistintome
High Limit-survives the speed and hangs on for a check

[spa]

Really want to unload on Greeley\'s Galaxy at 10-1, but what about is 0 fer 30 third race back? Ouch!!!!!!! Greeley may go off much higher than 10-1......

[spa]

If you believe in the TG numbers........Greeley will stroll around the track, make a middle move, and finish 4th or 5th.....I believe!!!!!!!

[davidrex]

Ia\'e asked so many times about eqibase profiles and never gotten an answer....data that I have say trainer is 9%.
How such an astute organization is willing to publish such drivel is beyond me.

[Tabitha]

Greeley\'s Galaxy has one number sure to win the Strub,If you believe in that number.

His last race he did finally show some life, so whatever his best is, you are probably going to get it today.

If he is 10-1 that will make one feel better about what on paper is a one timer. He probably won\'t be anywhere near 10-1. If you doubt the legitimacy of the One Time, he may only be the 4th fastest horse in the race.

So what do you do? Take maybe 9-2 on the One Time and not bad last effort, or take a stand against TGraphs best animal in the race on Figs?

Greeley\'s has 1 figure in 8 races that can win. Fair Odds will be 7-1. Will you get that? Will you take it?

[TGAB]

Davidrex--what horse? what trainer?

[davidrex]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Really want to unload on Greeley\'s Galaxy at 10-1,
> but what about is 0 fer 30 third race back?
> Ouch!!!!!!! Greeley may go off much higher than
> 10-1......


this is the horse...this was the message I responded to. TSN has the trainer 17% >90 days,7% 2nd lay,9% 3rd lay

Tabitha, what if you considered Greelys\' last as a testimonial that the animal is healthy and alert by just putting up a # that is better than anything previous(or after) to the haw.#,and yet may not have taxed him to any great extent?

Win or lose ,greelys\' line is what makes Browns\' such a very good tool.

[P-Dub]

Lets say you dismiss the big figure and take it back a few points. Its still a fast race. As for the others that are faster:

1-Giacomo: 8 mo layoff (best paired .5)
2-High Limit: Never improved off of 2 yo top and an outside post today (best 1)
3-Wilco: Never improved off of 2yo top, ran it once since (best 2.75)
4-Dixie Meister: paired 3s and getting 2 pds, this would be the horse to fear off this list (best 3)

He may have 1 race in his last 8 good enough to win, but lets look at them. 1st 4 races marches steadily to the big number (-2), backs up in the derby (not the first to do that), bad start and backs up off 2 weeks rest (Preakness), 7 mo layoff and returns in a graded sprint where he splits a big field while running on the rail, then runs a much improved race in a route to run his 2nd best fig (2.75). 2 works since including a 4F bullet 2 days ago, this horse is on edge and should fire a good race today. I don\'t think he\'ll be 10-1, but at 7-1 or so he is worth a bet.

The fast horses all have question marks for the win and many others look too slow. GG and Dixie Meister on top of High Limit, Ulistnintome, and Giacomo. Good luck.

[Tabitha]

davidrex Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Tabitha, what if you considered Greelys\' last as a
> testimonial that the animal is healthy and alert
> by just putting up a # that is better than
> anything previous(or after) to the haw.#,and yet
> may not have taxed him to any great extent?

His \"second\" fastest figure in his career. Clearly you have to consider him on form.

 
> Win or lose ,greelys\' line is what makes Browns\'
> such a very good tool.

7-1 is probably a fair price for those wanting to bet Greeley is rounding back to an unchallengeable effort or is fast enough to win with a 3.  A much better betting race is the Donn.

[cubfan0316]

greeley backin up in the stretch. imagine that........

[TGAB]

Well GG didn\'t win. Don\'t understand the ride from the 1 hole but that\'s no excuse. He didn\'t have it.

As for the apparent data discrepancy I can only speak for TG.

The run-based figures chronicle trainer success rates from 2002 on.

3rd off the layoff is defined as:

1. the trainer must have raced the horse before the layoff and that last race before the layoff had to have occurred in 2002;

2. more than 90 days off constitutes a layoff;

3. 2nd off the layoff has to occur 42 days or less since the layoff race; and

4. 3rd off the layoff has to occur 42 days or less since the 2rd off the layoff race, etc.

Same trainer for all conditions above.


Under these criteria, no Warren Stute horse succeeded, hence the 0 for 30. Now mind he had at least 3 horses wherein the last race before the layoff occurred in 2001 and at least 1 where the horse won 3rd time lifetime but that doesn\'t qualify.

I don\'t know what criteria TSN uses, nor the time period being measured.
 

[marcus]

When initially looking at the race thrs eve for a contest , I liked GG but didn\'t think he\'d be any kind of a price . As it turned out my projected ML was wrong and GG was quite usable and a good play at the generous odd\'s - nice call ...

[spa]

Marcus...you\'ve had too much kool-aid!!!!!!!! Greeley was not in the race to win......TG was correct, he\'ll run his race next time.......

[miff]

SPA

\"Greely\'s Galaxy is the most likely winner\" as per TG. Of course TG was correct, Duh! Not even close,like a majority of the time.