ROTW

[marcus]

spa-  I\'m saying this for the benifit of those readers here who might really not know becouse they\'re learning or new to the game .  

As JB , GW & Al and many others here have mentioned , the whole basis for betting horse\'s is to find overlay\'s or what you might consider to be a discrepency in the odds , then if so inclined , and from a money manegment point of view , to go with the overlay and leave undervalued stuff alone .

   

[spa]

Marcus....the horse was not in to win....we\'ll catch him next time.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Geez once again Greely\'s disappoint\'s. I bet the exacta with High Limit Huge. the Horse sat in perfect position but once again did not fire.Maybe next time like every one is saying, but not sure he\'ll get my money. Think this one is over classed right now. High Limit on the other Hand is maturing into a real race Horse or so it seems. lets face it that race did not have much in terms of early Speed and HL sat off the cheap early speed and cleared earlier than the closer types. GG had no excuse what so ever not to finish at least second.

NC Tony

[basket777]

4 wide is not the perfect position last time i checked

[Silver Charm]

High Limit clearly proved yesterday he is a top notch horse and once again as usual TG got the figure correct in the La Derby and Blue Grass last year.

[NoCarolinaTony]

4 wide where?

NC Tony

[Tabitha]

What High Limit proved yesterday was that Giacomo needed a race and probably needs 10 furlongs.

High Limit proved that Top This and That was a 3 horse sitting on a regression going in and is a 3 horse that regressed coming out.

High Limit proved that Greeley\'s Galaxy has figure issues that are bigger than form and which tend to suggest Greeley is a member of a substantial list of horses that were assigned very fast figures last year, for open daylight wins, calculated upon the usual efforts of the beaten horses.

The Blue Grass is another matter entirely.

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> High Limit clearly proved yesterday he is a top
> notch horse and once again as usual TG got the
> figure correct in the La Derby and Blue Grass last
> year.

[marcus]

spa , I understand and look forward to that next time , where does the horse go from here ?

[spa]

Marcus..Greeley should return in 30 days at a mile and an eighth....and blow the doors off at 10/1.

[Tabitha]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> spa , I understand and look forward to that next
> time , where does the horse go from here ?

That depends upon whether they want to increase his chances of winning.

Non Winner of 3 Races other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance for 3YO and up Colts. One turn mile might be a nice distance. He gives every appearance of a horse with distance limitations and chances are a 3 or 4 won\'t win there either.

[marcus]

ok tab your fly  + but 7-1 or so on GG isn\'t bad  , of course better still to have won . your getting some milelage out of this . but like many rag post\'s , (and apparently this one is another ex) , it isn\'t going anywhere . anytime you\'d like to discuss specific patterns on this site or wagering strategies for future races  , let someone know  ... you\'ll invaribly boast a better roi  !

ps - stay hi to lucy over there !

[Tabitha]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ok tab your fly  + but 7-1 or so on GG isn\'t bad
> , of course better still to have won . your
> getting some milelage out of this . but like many
> rag post\'s , (and apparently this one is another
> ex) , it isn\'t going anywhere . anytime you\'d like
> to discuss specific patterns on this site or
> wagering strategies for future races  , let
> someone know  ... you\'ll invaribly boast a better
> roi  !

Patterns?

You seriously want to discuss Patterns and mention Greeley\'s Galaxy in the same breath?

Greeley\'s Galaxy didn\'t have a pattern in his Past Performances. He had a \"One Time\" factored upon the losing efforts of Monarch Lane and Magna Graduate. Subsequent to that effort he worked a mile for the Kentucky Derby and stopped running before the work distance was completed. He made nice middle moves in the Derby and Preakness and stopped in both like a horse trying to cross Silver Charm\'s \"A bridge too far\". He was a non factor in the Malibu and then ran a 3 and finished a weakening 3rd in the 1-1/16th San Fernando.

Saturday, Greeley\'s Galaxy had to run 1-1/8. He ran about 1-1/16, what made anyone believe their was a Pattern to read or that he really wants that much ground? And this doesnt even consider the legitimacy of the Negative 2 in the Illinois Derby.

Wanna talk about Patterns and One times? Look at Brass Hats Figures. As a three year old he repeated Negative .5\'s in different form cycles. He was then injured and came back a year later. In his comeback his figures \"forged\" from

4
0
Negative .5

The last equaling his 3YO top. What kind of race did you expect in the Donn with the plethora of speed present? The only issue was the track condition and this horse has carried it\'s track with him.

If we learned something in the Strub, maybe it was this: \"Dont\' take 7-2 on a \"One Time\" when theres been no evidence the horse wants to repeat it and other horses in the race have faster figures than the One Timers second best.\"

Dang, betting against Stevie Wonder was good for another cash or two. Now he\'s out.

[marcus]

Giacomo ran alot of races before improving  when running a pair of 4 1/2 pt tops , then bounced badly which was followed by about a year lay off .

 Greeley\'s Galaxy ran down to a negative number aka kimmel style  in 4 races , then backed up almost 6 pts next time and then after that , another 4 pt backward move in the Pim race , ending the year with another terrible number @ SA , then on short rest , he runs his 2nd best number in his 1st 4 yo race and again on short rest to the Stub .

 GG had a number he could run back too but didn\'t is not an anomily . Probably needed more time in between the last few races .

So what are you saying , that you don\'t agree w/ the numbers or that the horse ( or a horse ) could not run off that line ? If your point is that you  where right about a race ok but remember that doesn\'t necesarily mean everybody else was wrong and you might very well be right about a race but not for the reasons you think - it happens all the time , specially if one becomes a little too ego involved .

As far as 20/20 hind site on trip or pace stuff - my personal inclination is in many or most of these previously run races is that , I don\'t care how a horse runs a number . To say a horse ran or didn\'t a number due pace is as viable as saying that a horse not taking to a particular surface was cause for failure and is subjective to a large degree .

I don\'t have Brass Hats sheet in my computor  ...

[Tabitha]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Giacomo ran alot of races before improving  when
> running a pair of 4 1/2 pt tops , then bounced
> badly which was followed by about a year lay off
> .
>
>  Greeley\'s Galaxy ran down to a negative number
> aka kimmel style  in 4 races , then backed up
> almost 6 pts next time and then after that ,
> another 4 pt backward move in the Pim race ,
> ending the year with another terrible number @ SA
> , then on short rest , he runs his 2nd best number
> in his 1st 4 yo race and again on short rest to
> the Stub .


Granted, Greeley\'s recent Past Performances lack the spacing he started his career with. The other thing that became clear after the Illinois Derby is that Greeley suddenly wasn\'t as forwardly placed. Perhaps that was due in part to training to get the Triple Crown distances. That trend held until the San Fernando when he finally showed signs of life again and raced near the front. Saturday, he was set to pop, but was four lengths back in the early running, however he was facing better horses again. Interestingly he\'s faced Giacomo 3 times now and can\'t seem to finish in front of him.

The race may come when someone wants to speculate that Greeley can return to that Negative 2 in the Illinois Derby. You\'ll want very good odds to make that speculation, certainly much higher than 7-2, because you\'re not going to win that race with Greeley on the basis of that Negative 2 Back Figure.

To win again against better horses at 1-1/8 miles, Greeley is going to need to catch the good part of a carrying track and he\'s going to have to have a pace advantage so he doesn\'t get discouraged running from behind.


>
>  GG had a number he could run back too but didn\'t
> is not an anomily . Probably needed more time in
> between the last few races .
>
> So what are you saying , that you don\'t agree w/
> the numbers or that the horse ( or a horse ) could
> not run off that line ? If your point is that you
> where right about a race ok but remember that
> doesn\'t necesarily mean everybody else was wrong
> and you might very well be right about a race but
> not for the reasons you think - it happens all the
> time , specially if one becomes a little too ego
> involved .
>
> As far as 20/20 hind site on trip or pace stuff -
> my personal inclination is in many or most of
> these previously run races is that , I don\'t care
> how a horse runs a number . To say a horse ran or
> didn\'t a number due pace is as viable as saying
> that a horse not taking to a particular surface
> was cause for failure and is subjective to a large
> degree .
>
> I don\'t have Brass Hats sheet in my computor  ...
>
>
>
> Edited 3 times. Last edit at 02/07/06 07:57AM by
> marcus.

[marcus]

Your definately on to something tab - of those 2 horse\'s Giacomo did manage to hold form untill the big bounce and lay off as a 3 yo . If he\'s right now , some additional late development is not out of the question however unless the odds are generous , I take a wait and see attitude on those types when they return to racing  . Those races in the trpl crown hunt at 2 + 3 yo \'s do take their toll on horse\'s as they did on Giacomo .

As far as GG is concerned , who\'s to say it\'s impossible for the horse to run a top effort last saturday or ever , it\'s a junk pattern and I\'d definately need a much bigger price than 7-2 and if one goes with this kind it\'s a  price play .

I realize that when supporting yourself betting , which I\'m not , one must take what is there sometimes and do your best w/a less than ideal card or race etc but I don\'t the Strub was necesarily one of those situations and don\'t like taking a short price in any situation even if I think it\'s an A+ play .