Short Priced Throwouts

[HP]

Really looking forward to it this year.  I\'ll probably get creamed!  

Short-priced throwouts - Folklore, First Samauri, Ouija Board, Lost in the Fog, Leroidesanimaux, Rock Hard Ten...  

Also some nice throwouts in the 4-1 -- 6-1 range.  Happy Ticket, Henny Hughes, probably Borrego...

I\'m going to try to lay off looking at it anymore till after the draw...  

Good luck.

HP  

[NoCarolinaTony]

RHT would go in your middle Group as St. Liam will be around 2-1 in that race.

NCT

[beyerguy]

Ouija Board for me, she has not been very good at all this year, not the same horse in my opinion.

[HP]

I\'m sure we will read that Ouija Board was being aimed for the BC, etc., and she could run her race and win, but why take a short price on a horse that isn\'t really the fastest one in the race?  

As a second thought, I\'m trying to make notes this year on FIRST impressions, and at FIRST glance two of the older turf horses jumped out at me. Riskaverse and Better Talk Now were both managed a little differently this year (spacing and number of races). Better Talk Now ran great his last two (ahead of where he was last year at that time) and posted a new top in last year\'s BC off an identical break (yl/sf turf should be fine). Riskaverse ran a new top last out, which is a bit of a concern, but I\'m thinking with the lighter campaign and the month break she could get pretty close to it again.

HP

[flushedstraight]

I have Happy Ticket as a must-use in the 7-1 -- 10-1 range; I can stare at her TG and watch the Beldame over and over again (though it will not match the impression left after seeing it live... cmon people, I wasn\'t the only one there) and I can\'t find the knocks. Maybe she will get more attention now but with Ashado, Jayne, and the George/Mott/Bailey filly in the race how can Happy even be close to 4-1?

[kev]

Ashado is my biggest throw out for the day. I\'m going to toss Lost in the Fog, these are for pick 4\'s.

[kev]

Just think of what the pick 4 will pay if you could get someone like LITF to not win. Maybe even the pick 3 if you beat LITF and Ashado, what would that thing pay??

[HP]

Happy Ticket ran well last out but I don\'t like her off the pair of tops.  Also, she has spent most of her career running shorter...so I think the last race may have even more of a negative impact.  

I think the toughest race on the card to get a grip on is the Juvenile Colts.  And if St. Liam isn\'t really ready to rock I think it could be one of the all-time mega-tote-busting Classics.  It\'s only Monday!  HP

[scottv]

HP:

Spend your time worrying about all of the other races besides the two Juveniles.
Both 2 year old races should be won by the favorite or second favorite as those horses have developed more than anyone else.  (Not Adieu, but Sensation).  

All of the other races have favorites that could easily be beaten because the turf is going to be yielding at best and the ability of some of the dirt favorites to win against this competition is suspect.    

Your comments about Happy Ticket represent the reasonable downside to that horse.
My analysis of the distaff revolves around pace.  Before the defection of Pampered Princess, I could see a hot pace.  I still see one to some degree.
This is a race that will hinge on post position.  One the posts are known, I think the Distaff, Sprint and Mile become easier to handicap.

[jimbo66]

Scottv,

Two things.

1.  Sensation won\'t be the 1st or 2nd favorite.  She will be value.

2.  Like anybody who is using Tgraph, I think Sensation has a good shot, but it isn\'t because she has \"developed the most\".  She actually hasn\'t developed AT ALL.  She ran a 2 first out, got back to it last time.  If she pairs up, she likely wins.  

[HP]

Jimbo,  

Sensation was one of my first throwouts, at least on top.  HP

[HP]

\"Both 2 year old races should be won by the favorite or second favorite as those horses have developed more than anyone else.\"

My thinking is exactly the opposite.  I\'m looking for the horse that hasn\'t really \"popped\" yet.  HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

Interested to hear why you would consider Sensation one of your first throwouts.  

She fires big first time out.  Bounces significantly in her next race.  Improves in her next, pointing her forward, back towards her top.  She delivers on that and pairs up her top.  

Yes, you could argue that she bounced last time and might bounce again, and if she was 2-1 or 5-2, I would bet against her.  

But she will be 5-1 or better and has two races that are faster than anybody else in here, except for Folklore (who has one fast race).

At a reasonable price, that makes her very playable to me.

Jim

[scavsiu8]

Unless I am looking at this wrong, she degressed in her third race also and ran back to her top in her fourth race...

You could also argue that Sensation just didn\'t like Saratoga as she didn\'t run all that well at Saratoga. She got back to Belmont, where she ran her top and runs huge again.....

[P-Dub]

This would be a much more interesting topic if some of you could explain WHY you feel these are short priced throwouts. Anybody can show up and say I don\'t like this favorite or that one.