Short Priced Throwouts

jimbo,

I took the 13-1 about 5 minutes ago (small wager). :-) A few others too. I tried to put one bet in and the odds dropped by a bunch just before I submitted it! DARN

There are some interesting horse matchups also.

[dlf]

Fair enough, Jerry. I stand corrected on the weight vs. beaten lengths vs. points. I told you I was no expert! Sorry to misrepresent your methodology on your board...I know that understandably irks you.

Now just one last thing: According to your methodology, if Ouija had been carrying 123 or WA was carrying 118 in last years BC F&M, ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, WA wins by 1/4 length. I still have a hard time accepting this. I guess my question to you is: Do you accept it?

[TGJB]

dlf-- yes, I think it would have made a 2 length difference.

[Wrongly]

JB

List of Euro\'s starting in BC, some of these had a start or two in the US before the BC.

F&M Turf
2003 - Yesterday, Islington, Mezzo Soprano, L\'Ancresse,Musical Chimes
2004 - Aubonne, Ouija Board,Yesterday
Mile
2003 - Refuse to Bend, Oasis Dream, Six Perfections
2004 - Antonius Pius, Blackdoun, Diamond Green, Six Perfections, Whipper
Turf
2003 - Bright Sky, High Chaparral, Sulamani, Falbrav
2004 - Powerscourt, Magistretti.

Jimbo good luck with that Wonder Again thing, she was 5-1 last year probably goes off around the same this year.

[jimbo66]

Wrongly,

She was almost 11-1 last year, actually 10.70 to 1.  She drew the outside post in that race, which I decided to overlook, because I thought she had tactical speed.  It seems she only shows that tactical speed when the turf is soft, based on her PP.  

She was beatn 1 3/4 lenghts, after sitting last through a 1:18.2 three quarter fraction.  The turf was yeilding, but not THAT yielding.  Before the race last year, there was reason to suspect that Ouija Board would be the one sitting far off the slow pace and forced wide, having come out of races in Europe with very slow paces and her sitting very far back.  However, Fallon gave the horse a great ride.  Dlf mentions her swinging very wide, she did not swing wide before the turn, she swung wide after she was mostly through the turn.  She was the equivalent of 2w on the turn.  

PP Draw will be important in this race.  Yes, there is plenty of time to get over and inside with a relatively long run to the first turn, but there is very little speed in the race outside of Intercontinental, so you want to swing over and sit maybe 4th or so.  If Wonder Again draws a double digit post, she won\'t have my money on her this time.  

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

      Good analysis. The latest weather report I\'ve seen calls for a chance of nearly 2 inches of rain over the next 48 hrs, making it unlikely that the turf courses will be any better than \"good\", with a chance for a soft or yielding course. Of course we know what this does for Wonder Again. Frankel\'s pair have certainly accomplished more over firm ground. Before I realized that Ouija was being ridden by JDB, I thought she would be 8/5 and Wonder Again 5/2.

      Given a softer turf and the riding assignments, the post time odds IMO could be Ouija \"Even\", WA 2/1.

      In the Juvenile, a friend of mine who I feel has a good eye told me that Henny\'s work Friday (4f, 47.14 b) was very impressive. I\'m not sold.

      HH is the only colt to have run faster than First Samurai. Agreed. In the 2 races they were loaded into the same gate, First Sam handled HH. Easily. Now FS adds Lasix. HH goes to a trainer who is having a very tough time at Bel, Spring and Fall, 2005.

      I don\'t think FS has had to run hard yet. If he doesn\'t react poorly to Lasix, I am very confident that he will move forward and win. Right now my \"trotter punch\" (favorite in, second fave out) would be First Sam over all of the \"S\" horses.. Sorcerer, Stevie Wonder, Stream Cat, Superfly, and the Euro,
Set Alight in EXs and TRIs

     

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

Tough call on Henny Hughes.  I agree it might get you value to throw him out.  The cold trainer and 1 1/16 might not be his best distance.  He could be a pure sprinter.  First Samurai is a legit favorite.  He is consistent and fast.

As for your forecast of the odds in the F&M turf, \"not a snowball\'s chance in hell\".  There are 14 horses in the race.  We won\'\'t see 6-5 and 2-1.  You will get value on Wonder Again, as long as you consider 5-1 or so, value.  With that many entries, the math doesn\'t work, with multiple short prices.  On the odds line I put together for the race, Ouija Board is 3-2, Megahertz 5-1, Wonder Again 6-1 and the rest double digits.  I will adjust it after the PP draw and for the turf condition, but my point is that with so many horses and one horse who will definitely be 2-1 or less (OB), the others have to be decent prices.  The takeout is bad enough, don\'t make it out to be even worse!!

[TGJB]

Here they are.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

    I will be using her in multiple race wagers, so I hope you are correct.

    Jimbo, in your discussion of the Sprint, you agreed that Wildcat Heir and Battle Won were possible victors over LITF. But if not Pomeroy or Silver Train, who will do the dirty work on the front end?

    You may be underestimating the Tabor factor. As he looks at his assets in this race, he has to be thinking his best chance is to send Pomeroy, fast as he can, far as he can, and hope Lion Tamer is in a position to pick up the pieces.

    Someone characterized Pomeroy as a Saratoga horse. That\'s not accurate. He shows 3 blowout wins at Monmouth, broke his maiden over a sloppy Belmont track, and won a 1 1/16 stake at pre poly Turfway.

     Your depiction of a speedy horse showing less and less lick out of the gate is absolutely correct, but with Pomeroy it has only been one such incident. I might want too see another before I draw a conclusion.

[Kasept]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------
>       I don\'t think FS has had to run hard yet. If
> he doesn\'t react poorly to Lasix, I am very
> confident that he will move forward and win.



richie..

This weekend\'s work by Sam was with Lasix. He reacted really well to it and JB said he was as aggressive as can be.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

i don\'t think anybody has to do the dirty work on the front end.  Both Wildcat Heir and Battle Won are stalkers, they each can sit right off a sharp pace.  Wildcat HEir, on his best is faster than LITF.  Battle Won is about as fast and has been tested.  I think they could just be better than LITF right now ane definitely \"bette gambles\", than LITF.

If I was looking for a suicidal pace duel that melts down LITF, I wouldn\'t be looking at WH or BW, because they are both quick and would also be knocked out in that scenario.  I guess I would look at Lion Tamer or Taste of Paradise in that scenario.  Each has a race or two fast enough to win here and they will both be far off the pace here.

But I don\'t see a hot pace.  Silver train is not that quick and Pomeroy has shown the kind of gas it takes to lead the sprint, one time.  I understand the Tabor thing, but I don\'t make bets based on those angles.  Too suspect.

[kingcong39]

Jimbo, you are one heck of a poster and analyzer. A few things.

Take the 13-1 on Wend. Everything I read or hear from a so-called expert has been tabbing both Wend and Wonder Again.
I am no expert on workouts, but according to DRF workout analysis today (have yet to watch the WORKS from TVG earlier today) Wend did not handle the softish turf as well as Wonder Again. Than again, who does?

I have not had this much trouble identifying pace in big races as I have when looking at the pre-entries. Where is the pace in the Sprint?! I guess Battle Won could go to the front if nobody else wants it, but it sure seems like Lost in the Fog to the front in :22 and :44 again (depending on souped up track or not) and seeing if someone can look him in the eye and pass him coming off the turn. He has already shown heart shrugging off EggHead at 7 furlongs which I believe is 1 furlong beyond his optimum, so whoever wins, as has been said, will have to EARN it. How about Elusive Jazz as usable?
Speaking of no pace, how about the Classic? There is zero pace in here. After reading of Flower Alley\'s rank workout today going faster early than late, he could be your pacesetter. If I were Dutrow, with the absense of pace, wouldnt Saint Liams chances be best either on the lead or right off of it? How about this possible pedestrian early speed benefitting a sneaky stalker, ala Suave?

A note on Artie Schiller to all. I talked with a reporter from the local paper (I live in the Saratoga/Albany NY area) who talks with Migliore very often, and he asked why Artie has been so keen early and on the pace this year instead of closing from the back with his old electrifying rush. Richards answer was that Artie had been much tougher to handle in all aspects this year and has been very headstrong and studdish all around. So maybe taking him further off the pace has not been an option to Richie. Will Garret make a difference?

[ezgoer89]

Intercontinental is going to be double digit odds?   She is undoubtedly the best F&M miler in this country.  Her full sister is Banks Hill who never raced more than a mile before destroying everyone by 5 or 6 lengths at 10f.  

She\'s the fastest horse who is going to be on the rail and losing no ground on the lead.  

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey Ya\'ll-

I know the turf was listed as fast at Kee last race for both Wend and intercontinental, but we all know the turf was ultra soft. So who say\'s wend can\'t handle the off going? Same for Intercontinental for that matter.

NC Tony

NCT,

Interesting point...and I\'m glad you made it because I live about 1 mile from Belmont and it has been pouring for the last few hours.  It\'s started raining about 30 seconds after I put my future bet in on her. :-)