Friedman and Brown Belmont Picks -- Sneak Peek

[dpatent]

I won\'t say how, but I got a hold of Friedman\'s and Brown\'s analysis and betting strategy for the Belmont.

For simplicity of comparison, the horses are listed in PP order.

Friedman\'s Analysis

Horse        Analysis       Betting Strategy
1. Artax Too -- too slow, toss; use lightly in exotics
2. Like A Hero -- good pattern, a bit slow; use lightly in exotics
3. Wiseman\'s Ferry  -- Two big races in a row; use lightly in exotics
4. Essence of Dubai -- Small move forward, still slow; use lightly in exotics
5. Sunday Break -- 1 fast number but shaky pattern; use lightly in exotics
6. Perfect Drift -- Neutral pattern, fast enough, possible key; use lightly in exotics
7. Puzzlement -- Toss; use lightly in exotics
8. Medaglia d\'Oro -- had his \'X\' could recover; use lightly in exotics
9. Proud Citizen -- Pair up signals a significant bounce; use lightly in exotics
10. War Emblem -- 0-2-X is likely; use lightly in exotics
11. Magic Weisner -- Two big jumpups makes bounce lightly; use lightly in exotics
12. Sarava -- Needs to improve to be competitive; use lightly in exotics

Predicted ROI: 102%

Brown\'s Analysis

Horse        Analysis       Betting Strategy
1. Artax Too -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
2. Like A Hero -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
3. Wiseman\'s Ferry -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
4. Essence of Dubai -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
5. Sunday Break -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
6. Perfect Drift -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
7. Puzzlement -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
8. Medaglia d\'Oro -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
9. Proud Citizen -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
10. War Emblem -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
11. Magic Weisner -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business
12. Sarava -- nice forward moving pattern; none of your business

Predicted ROI: 1,000 times better than Friedman

There you have it.

[TGJB]

Not bad, but when I have I said none of your business or an equivalent? I just finished writing my comments--check out the RBR on Sunday (I know you won\'t go for the $$ to download the sheets and comments for the race) and see if I hedge. Remember I took a position in the Derby against the favorites, and on USS Tinosa in the Preakness.

[dpatent]

Jerry,

It was either \'None of your business\' or \'I\'ll tell you after my syndicate crushes the race\'.  

I went for the shorter one, which is in reference to your choice not to participate in the Belmont \'handicapping contest\' that HP and I are having.

[HP]

What\'s the over/under on how many horses can be \'used in exotics\' in the Belmont (assuming Friedman posts)? If past history is any indication, I would make it eight (2/3rd\'s of the field).

Is this what Steve Plever would call a \'personal attack\'? Very delicate sensibilities over there. Maybe Superf(Dave) can get youse to lighten up. He\'s working wonders over here.

By the way, is Friedman \'ducking\' the challenge too? HP

[superfreakicus]

\"I took a position in the Derby against the favorites, \"


I seem to remember saarlandmania being in
your 8 horse box...


ps

what name does rochelle use in her credits?

[superfreakicus]

no -- friedman is not hosting this contest.

(and he doesn\'t boast about being 1000 times better than anybody)

[Anonymous User]

Lmfao

[HP]

God you are dense. Jerry is not \'hosting\' anything. As for your other brilliant post on the other string, maybe you can use your leftover imaginary cash to buy something.

Good luck. HP

[Anonymous User]

I think we can the Belmont wagering contest and follow HP\'s lead. The only bet worth making here is the number of horses Friedman believes are playable in this twelve horse field. HP has stated 8 is the line. I\'m goin with the over. I say he factors in nine in one form or another.

Betting Friedman\'s ROI should be the tie breaker. My bet is he leaves all he puts into the race.

lol

Tabi

[TGJB]

David, you just never get tired of setting me up to promote, do you? At the end of my comments before the race that went with every Derby set, hard copy and online, I said: “Overview – There is an awful lot of value to be found in this race, since it’s worth taking a stand against a number of horses that will take money – like Harlan’s Holliday, Came Home, Buddha, and Johannesburg. Perfect Drift is clearly valued, and the right play may be spreading out in the exotics using several of the club ones – War Emblem, Request For Parole, Medalgia D’Oro, Saarland, and if you really want to spread out, Proud Citizen, Essence of Dubai, and Blue Burner.” You should really consider spending the five bucks.

[dpatent]

Jerry,

Please.

Your Derby \'overview\' was no better a betting strategy than Friedman\'s lame-o \'use blah blah blah in exotics.\'

This is a betting strategy:

20 units win on X
10 units exacta box Y with Z

Anything else is a copout.  Or it\'s just an analysis.

I\'ll keep the $5, thank you.

[TGJB]

David Patent wrote:
>
> Jerry,
>
> Please.
>
> Your Derby \'overview\' was no better a betting strategy than
> Friedman\'s lame-o \'use blah blah blah in exotics.\'
>
> This is a betting strategy:
>
> 20 units win on X
> 10 units exacta box Y with Z
>
> Anything else is a copout.  Or it\'s just an analysis.
>
> I\'ll keep the $5, thank you.


TG--You mean like when I did the articles for the 95 and 98 Derbies in Drf, giving out a 3 horse box (tri $2,000), and 4 horse box (tri $1,000)? Or the BC tri that paid $4,000 on a 4 horse box? We do it every day--Friedman never does it. And if you really can\'t see the difference between my Derby and Preakness overviews (in one I said the right play was spreading out in exotics against the favorites, in the other I picked a specific key) and Friedman\'s generalized list, you truly are an idiot. And you\'re not an idiot. So why don\'t you stop being disingenuous and glib and think about what it does make you.

[superfreakicus]

I think he means all the horrible picks you gave out en route to the \'95 derby.

and when you use perfect drift, saarlandmania, and m d\'o, how the hell do you figure you\'re \'playing against the favorites\'?
you played against one favorite. (harlan)

by the way, we\'re having a handicapping contest here friday.

[TGJB]

superfreakicus wrote:
>
> I think he means all the horrible picks you gave out en route
> to the \'95 derby.
>
> and when you use perfect drift, saarlandmania, and m d\'o, how
> the hell do you figure you\'re \'playing against the favorites\'?
> you played against one favorite. (harlan)
>
> by the way, we\'re having a handicapping contest here friday.

Tg--Okay, I\'ll give back the money--I got about 60-1 on the tri and super play, so boxing 7 I must have used a lot of favorites. Work out for yourself the return on the 95 Derby, and even if I had lost all my Drf picks that year, tell me how I did. I told you, pal--I\'m calling you on your chippy little raggie factoids. Get tied on.

[JRL]

It is nice that you have picked a few winners in the derby and BC over the last few years, but the implication that it proves your sheets are better than Rags is just plain silly.  I don\'t know how well Friedman has done (and I don\'t really care), but I can tell you that I have cashed multiple days of wins in the thousands of dollars on the triple crown races and breeder\'s cup alone using Ragozin Sheets.  I am not doing this to brag, as I am sure nobody here cares about my handicapping wins, but to demonstrate that if cashing big wins on the triple crown and BC proves the quality of the sheets, then I will put Rags against yours any day.

These are a few examples that I can remember off the top of my head:

Big Scores

Derby

1998 Real Quiet (Future book bet at 40 to 1, trifecta and superfecta [3 times, one with a $6 ticket])
1994 Go for Gin

Preakness

1992  Pine Bluff/Alydeed
1993  Prairie Bayou/Cherokee Run

Belmont

1993 Colonial Affair/Kissin Kriss (big exacta and trifecta [only paid a few thousand in so cal. because field finished 3rd, but would have paid 18k in New York)
1999 Lemon Drop Kid (also 5 out 6 on pick six that only missed due to betting error, paid 300k)

Breeder\'s Cup

1994 6 out 7 (twice) on pick 7, which paid $130,000, plus several individual races.
1995 pick 6, which paid $25,000
1997 Skip Away (short price on BC day, but 40 to 1 future book bet), also 5 out of 6 on pick 6.
2000 5 out 6 on small pick 6 ticket, crushed F&M Turf.


Near Misses

1992 Derby - Arazi the best 4 to 5 throwout in Derby history.  Unfortunately, only had a few dollars on Lil ET at 46 to 1 (in New York), even though he had the best last race Rag number going into the race.

1998 Breeder\'s Cup -- 5 out of 6 on pick 6, if Hawksley Hill beats Da Hoss, hit pick 6, along with every other possible bet with HH (this one still gives me nightmares).

1999 Breeder\'s Cup -- Golden Missle at something like 100 to 1 finished 3rd going very wide.  Didn\'t like the top 2, so no tri (I wish). Had across the board bet, but 3rd place money not enough for big score.