ROTW

[Michael D.]

nice analysis TG...

sun king - simply put, this guy is distance challenged. unless he faces weak field, he invariably flattens out in the stretch. the cutback to 8.5f can only help. looks like zito has him cranked. looking for a return to the \"0\" lvl.

high limit - perfect trip \"1\" in the la derby. faces a bit more pressure here, but i\'m guessing another \"1\" is coming.

sort it out - no #\'s fast enough

scrappy t - nice horse. ran two nice races in the \"2\" range this spring, finishing well in both, then ran his best while running second in the preakness. i think this is a legit \"0\" horse, and i expect a run in that range.

golden man - mystery to me. ran very well at GP, then flattened out like a pancake in the peter pan. TG says he bounced, but why? they spotted him perfectly for the peter pan, cranking him up after seven weeks rest. since he gets in light, and gets my favorite jock, i\'m going to take a positive view.

letterman\'s humor - \"5\" i guess? ground will turn it into a \"7\" at best.

.......................

scrappy\'s scratched.
..........

not sure how i will play this one, but from post 1 with bejarano up, i am leaning towards SK. GM also looks interesting.

Michael,

With Scrappy out (who showed he could stay close to Bellamy Road\'s blaze) who is going to run with High Limit?

I think that scratch complicates the race a little.

[Michael D.]

class,
blinkers on SK. he hit the half in :47.1 in the champagne as a two year old. HL might get an easy trip, but bejarano will know where that animal is every second of the race. point well taken though, with the scratch of scrappy, the pace scenario here is critical.

[Michael D.]

well, i got off GM after the start yesterday, but with blinkers from post one SK was the play. good start or bad start, i don\'t think HL is going to get past the \"1\" he ran earlier in the year. just not enough heart there. SK is the real deal going 1m to 1 1/16m.
..............

$7 was fair for SK. i would have been all over this damn exacta if GM didn\'t run yesterday (but then it wouldn\'t have paid $46).

I agree on HL.  

The start obviously changed things because he lost some lengths and instead of controlling the slow pace, his main competitor was controlling the slow pace, but he didn\'t look too sharp to me anyway. There\'s no way he\'s supposed to lose the place spot there just because he didn\'t shake loose. That start was a good example of why you shouldn\'t take 3-5.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> well, i got off GM after the start yesterday, but
> with blinkers from post one SK was the play. good
> start or bad start, i don\'t think HL is going to
> get past the \"1\" he ran earlier in the year. just
> not enough heart there. SK is the real deal going
> 1m to 1 1/16m.
> ..............
>
> $7 was fair for SK. i would have been all over
> this damn exacta if GM didn\'t run yesterday (but
> then it wouldn\'t have paid $46).
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 07/17/05 05:23PM by
> Michael D..

Those were the three that figured. They run this race again in four weeks and those three fill out the top three spots but in a different order. The little extra advantage has been has been working very well at Delaware for allconcerned. Pisgah!!! Pisgah!!! Pisgah!!!

[Michael D.]

ctc,
well you are consistent. your post race posts are as bad as your pre race posts. take a negative view on SK, the come back after he wins easy and pays $7 and say he will lose if they were to run again. do you enjoy making an ass out of yourself every day of the week?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

hey i didnt bet....i looked at that race and passed. I saw the blinkers and post position and figured he had a shot. At 5-2 he\'s yours. If High Limit was 7-2 i would have bet and lost.  Michael..I hope you\'re insights are as on target in the Delaware Cap if they are I have a good shot.

[Millennium3]

Like I said earlier: High Limit is a vastly over-rated creature. Slow start or not, he proved his non mettle yet again when he lost the place to a horse that ran YESTERDAY. His TG \"1\"\'s are phony - he\'s nowhere near that good, and he\'s proved that in every race he\'s run as a 3 year old. Didn\'t I read here that TG used his LA Derby \"1\" as the basis for calculating the Bluegrass Stakes figs? If that\'s true, you can trash those too.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Chuckles doesn\'t make an ass of himself every day of the week, he usually takes Tuesdays off.

\"If High Limit would have been 7-2 I would have bet on him and lost\".  

This is an idiotic statement.  In a five horse field, as one of the two graded stakes winners, you were looking for 7-2?  

Second thing Michael.  Chuckles never loses a race.  He either wins or after making a statement that was wrong in writing on this board, he tells us he passed the race........

On another thread completely, I am curious to see the redboard room for the Hollywood analysis tomorrow.  The T-Graph figures pointed out several decent priced winners today at Hollywood.  A copule of \"top fig\" horses paid square prices.  

[jimbo66]

Millennium,

Sun King ran a T-Graph top of \"0\", off a freshening, in other words similar circumstances as today.

The figure in the LA Derby that you are questioning, was a \"1\" for High Limit, which was his top.

So, T-Graph had Sun King faster and he drew the rail.

The rail was offset by the pre-race expectation that High Limit was probably going to make the lead and save ground.

But with Sun King at 5-2 and High Limit at 3-5, if you are using T-Graph, you probably pick the winner.

I am sorry that sounds like redboarding and I guess it is, my only point is that whether the \"1\" was achieved under perfect circumstances and/or legit, if you used T-Graph for the race today, you had a good chance to cash.  

[Michael D.]

no need for my previous post. i\'ll just use TG and ignore the bulletin board.

[Millennium3]

Jimbo:

High Limit\'s \"1\" in Lousiana is what I say is bogus, if a \"1\" has any meaning at all. The LA Derby doesn\'t stand up to scrutiny today, 4 months later, no matter which way you look at it. Vicarage & Wall Street Scandal were both dusted in their next starts; Storm Surge yet to win out of that race. It was a garbage race, over rated, and High Limit himself has done nothing to flatter the Lousiana Derby form with 4 straight losses since. If that race is a \"1\" for him than a \"1\" is pretty much meaningless.

If memory serves, TG gave High Limit \"1\"\'s as a 2YO, which is why I have questions about TG\'s evaluation of him. He hasn\'t run like a horse with three or four \"1\"\'s; he runs like a horse that\'s never broken 4. And as for today? Forget what \"pre-race expectations\" were. He started slow, that\'s it - it wasn\'t a calamity. He had plenty of time and opportunities to win it. That he failed that is bad enough. When he got outfinished by a horse that ran YESTERDAY AND SHIPPED IN for second, that proves to me he\'s WAY overrated by Thorograph.

[Michael D.]

but thanks a bunch for getting the Dmr card up tonight. you know the real racing has begun when you see first Dmr #. one week till the spa!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I stated in other posts I was passing. It didn\'t pan out today but High Limit is the marginally better horse. You probably dont know that Jimbo but thats ok.

If you scored on Sun King at the phenomenal price of 5-2 congrats or did you lose big again today Jim? Is that why you\'re surly?

High Limit is not a world beater. He did have trouble with the break and its a quick run to the turn. Maybe he broke poorly because he wasn\'t ready for his best race. Who got back to form off the layoff was the major issue in the race and Sun King scored on that variable is all. Circumstances shake things up. Personally, I believe if they run the same animals in four weeks you\'ll still have the top three in the trifecta but in different order. That time was not stellar in my estimation even for the winner. The runner ups ran slow.  Those horses are second cut and relatively close in ability, thats why the race opened up to being close to unbettable when Scrappy passed. The two that figured were 1-2 and 5-2. For many catching the 5-2 was simply a matter of taking the better odds, though maybe that price was even fair. It would be very surprising to see any of the Trifecta horses being a factor in the Haskell. But at least Sun King has found his form.

It was a boring race and essentially unbettable, not unlike Jimbo\'s Turf analysis...lol