ROTW

[NoCarolinaTony]

Yes that also an option as well. Again I think we all get that  the guy is anti Speed Figs anti TG, but he offers nothing else except to be the Anti-Speedfigure guy. Another Scud dropping bombs in my opinion.

NC Tony

[davidrex]

     Nice posting Milenium3.
These two races have been dragged over the coals more than any other regional tests leading up to the Derby.
     Let us review:
1.-Nothing good has developed from these 2 races.[Is there another reason we study the past other than cashung a ticket?]
2.-The derby ends up exploding because the left coast was dissed all spring...even tho ,going in for the last 10 years Califonia has provided a majority of the good runners to the dance.
3.-Frankels\' runners come out winging and all too often maintain said level for extended period.

     To all the historians on this board...put it to sleep

                      PARTYpokerON!

[NoCarolinaTony]

Millennium3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Figures (TG, Rags, Beyer) are subjective
> assessments, period. No matter what their
> inventors or adherents claim. To say once a \"1\" is
> granted it\'s immutable, (in fact as you claim
> bolstered by whatever scrutiny is applied to it),
> is the equivalent of proud & openly admitted
> membership in The Flat Earth Society.
>
> M3

The fig that day has been over scutinized. It was in line with the rest of the day as best as I can remember. If any race needs to be re assessed it may be the Blue Grass. So if that makes me part of the (Ignorant Stupid Flat Earth Society) than so be it.

NC Tony

[davidrex]

     Michael,
Ever notice when c.h. posts on other board his comments are limited to acouple of sentences?

He comes over here and hes\' \"The ramblin man\".

               PARTYpokerON!

[jimbo66]

M3,

Ok, I get your point.  

I think it is clear that the La Derby is a negative key race and I think it is also fair to say that T-Graph was wrong about several \"selections\" that were based somewhat on that race (Jerry called High Limit the \"value of the Derby\" and also liked Kansas City Boy in his next start, coming out of the La Derby - which many on this board disagreed with - before the race).

All that said M3, I don\'t think you can question the T-Graph figure on the La Derby.  Unless you want to assert that all the figure makers got the race wrong.  Roughly speaking, the T-Graph figure for the La Derby = the Rags fig on the race = the Beyer figure on the race.

The races you might want to question are the two-year old races, those are the ones that Jerry gave much faster figs on, relative to the other two figuremakers.

[davidrex]

First time I can remember c.l. dissing someone on this board!
Even when ctmc /class were dancing in the past c.l. never became this pointed.
Now if only you can use this force while handicapping and/or discussion,I think the rank and file of this board would accept you more readily.

                       PARTYpokerON!

[Millennium3]

NC Tony wrote: \"The fig that day has been over scutinized. It was in line with the rest of the day as best as I can remember. If any race needs to be re assessed it may be the Blue Grass.\"

This is a great example of what I mean. In line with what - figures pored over from sheets prior to LA Derby Day, right? That\'s what I mean when I say they\'re subjective.

And if you make the claim that the Blue Grass needs to be re-evaluated, remember this: according to TG the Blue Grass figs were based on High Limit repeating his LA Derby Figure. So if the Blue Grass needs to be re-evaluated, you make my point conclusively: the LA Derby figure is phony.


And I\'m still waiting for you to show me where I used the words \"stupid\" or \"ignorant\" to describe anybody. All the posts I made have one common thread: TG screwed up in assessing High Limit as a horse that is a legitimate \"1\" type horse. He\'s not. They were wrong. And his efforts that followed the LA Derby prove it. They made an error in this case that\'s clear. I never said that TG doesn\'t know what it\'s doing. We all make mistakes.

TG is to be commended, in fact profusely thanked for one reason above all others: they led the charge of identifying and dealing with the \"move up\" trainers and owners. For that alone they deserve the respect from anyone that bets on horses.

[NoCarolinaTony]

M3,

I think the La derby figure was right so that makes me a member of the world is flat society. How has history characterized the people who thought the world was flat?..anyway you want to be right so I\'m dropping this discussion and concede to you your point of view.

Davidrex is right about rehashing history. You can\'t beat a dead horse or can you?

NC Tony

[Millennium3]

To answer your question: history has characterized those that THOUGHT the world WAS flat (before evidence) as mistaken. It\'s the ones today that still think it\'s flat despite satellite photos to the contrary that could have some issues.

Applied to this discussion: I offered REASONS as to WHY I think High Limit\'s \"1\"\'s are phony. You offer simply a belief that the LA Derby figure is right, by virtue of the fact you simply say it is.

And again, if you think the LA derby figure is right, you can\'t have any complaints about the Bluegrass Figures, since they\'re based on High Limit\'s LA Derby \"1\" being right.

[jimbo66]

M3,

Did you see my posting about the La Derby figure?  Jerry, Len and Andy beyer were in synch on this race.  That doesn\'t make them right of course, but it does make it a figure that T-Graph doesn\'t \"stand alone\" on.

The interesting thing to me is that it does appear that Jerry might have used the \"1\" for High Limit to justify the very high figure for Bandini in the Bluegrass.  However, Beyer gave the Bluegrass a very slow figure.  To date, it seems Andy has the edge on that race.  Len also gave the Bluegrass a huge figure, actually on par with the fig given to Bellamy Road in the Wood Memorial.  Can\'t say who has the edge there, as Scrappy T is the only horse to come out of either race and do well, until Sun King\'s race yesterday.  

Not sure where you want this thread to go or what you are expecting.  I guess Jerry is on his way back from Delaware, as I would have thought we would have gotten some kind of response from him by now.  

If all three of the \"name figuremakers\" are in agreement on a race and the race fits with the day, but then all the horses coming out of the race don\'t run back to that race, what do you do?  For me, I call it a \"negative key race\" and bet against those horses as often as possible.  

It would seem to be more valid to question jerry on figures where he \"stands alone\" and has treated a race differently than either Beyer or Len.  Those figures either get T-Graph users buried, or get us great scores.  The True North fits in this category, as did High Limit\'s 2 year old races.  I don\'t see the La Derby in this category.

M3,

Do you believe a \"1\" earned after dueling with a horse of similar quality, repulsing the bid of a stalker, and then holding off the charge of a few late closers is equal to a \"1\" earned loose on the lead in a moderate pace where no one behind you had enough ability to offer any challenge?

If you answer \"Y\", then there\'s no point in continuing.

If you answer \"N\", then one would expect fluctuations in a horse\'s figures that were \"totally accurate\" based on aspects of the trip that go beyond ground loss and exlude changes in form.

[Millennium3]

Class:

My understanding is that as far as TG is concerned, a \"1\" is a \"1\" is a \"1\". It\'s not conditional. Which is another reason I have a problem with High Limit\'s \"1\"\'s. Using TG\'s basis (and I have to believe other figure makers stick by their final numbers once they make them - otherwise why make them at all?), High Limit ran 3 races that were the equivalent of some of Cigar\'s best efforts. Wanna try and make the case for equivocating Cigar\'s accomplishments with a 1 vs. High Limit\'s accomplishments with a 1? Fire away. I\'m all ears and eyes.  

M3,

\"My understanding is that as far as TG is concerned, a \"1\" is a \"1\" is a \"1\".\"

My understanding is that TG (and most other speed figure makers) are telling us how fast horses ran on a given day. They aren\'t making subjective judgements about other aspects of the performance that might have come into play.  

[Millennium3]

Yeah..I know. That\'s what I said. That\'s why a \"1\" is a 1 for anyone that runs it. Using that standard, what\'s your pooint?

M3,

\"Using that standard, what\'s your point?\"

That a more comprehensive approach might explain \"ability\" a little better.

However, the starting point for most numbers oriented guys is obviously an accurate speed figure.