Yes

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I should have won 4 derbies in a row.

I am INVINCIBLE



Post Edited (05-21-05 18:25)

[Bally Ache]

On Sportscenter they just had up a graphic that said it was the 5th straight year an odds on horse had won the Preakness. After the Belmont they\'ll ignore racing till next spring

Also, when they showed the iso replay on AfleetAlex, down the backside did you see \"J.D.\" with that married man\'s ride?  Not that it mattered.

[Saddlecloth]

The preakness is usually pretty formfull.  Its the easiest race, IMO, for both horse and bettor...not that I had it

[spa]

Saddle, say what !!! You are a great picker, but what!!!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Spa, I\'ve been wrong about my Derby/Preakness winners getting 12 marks easy, but unless something jumps up on the horizon here, they got their hands full with Alex in the Belmont. Andromedas is aiming for it.

Bandini and Flower Alley are two I\'d be leary of. Flower Alley ran the best Derby of the bias impacted horses.

[Bally Ache]

Chuckles

Congratulations on sticking with Alex.  I thought he was exhausted after the Derby and needed a rest.

Splain me this.  At CD they came home in 53 & change and Alex who looked like a probable winner in midstretch to me couldn\'t hold off two longshots.  He beat everbody he figured to have to beat but he couldn\'t close the deal against two horses who weren\'t doing all that much.  Why?

If you choose to respond please try not to use the word \"bounce\".

[spa]

CtC, only a formula horse will beat Alex, if he isn\'t already broken down !!!!

ps. anybody here think Alex can\'t go 1 1/2 !!!!

[spa]

Bally, Alex did the Texas t-step in the Derby...I posted they both could have died this day, never expecting this !!!

[Saddlecloth]

afleet alex will get a huge beyer, probably 116 or so would why he not back up off of it, and at a 1 1/2?  Also throw in he will be 4/5 if bellamy road is not in the race.

[mikemd]

nice call spa.  you\'ve been touting him since the derby.  all others are just copycats.  ;-]

[kev]

I don\'t know about that, but wacth out for Buzzard Bay. Take your 3.80 to win on AA in the bel. not to say I won\'t have him in a back up ex. with BB.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bally Ache wrote:

> Splain me this.  At CD they came home in 53 & change and Alex
> who looked like a probable winner in midstretch to me couldn\'t
> hold off two longshots.  He beat everbody he figured to have to
> beat but he couldn\'t close the deal against two horses who
> weren\'t doing all that much.  Why?

Thats a very complicated question and it could have been luck as much as anything that bailed Alex bettors out in the Preakness. When Alex didn\'t go down in that circumstance theres something besides logic impacting those bets.

-I\'ve believed for some time that Alex had the potential to be the best horse of the crop and even good horses have off days. (Hard not to use \"bounce\" there) He was favored in the Preakness and that was hard to swallow, but 3-1 figured to get back two previous losing win bets on him too.

-Ascertaining strip bias is the biggest unquantifiable variable for performance figures. Guessing wrong regarding bias will kill you. Guessing right, will accentuate the accuracy of the figures. TGraph makes the best figures on the Triple and prep Races. They don\'t factor bias in the number. You have to adjust for it and know what you\'re doing. Giacomo\'s and Closing Arguments Derby was good, but it was bias aided. Alex ran further against that bias and he clearly regressed (couldn\'t say bounced)in the Derby. Watch the Ark again. The horse that won that Ark will not lose against this crop.

CtC

[hossgnat]

The most interesting thing I saw on TV coverage today was Ritchey being asked about easing off on 2-a-day training for AA.  He said something to the effect of no more of that, we\'re easing off to try to \"improve performance\".

In retrospect that may be telling admission of overly aggressive training up to the Derby with AA coming up just short nearing the wire.

A real bummer if this horse handles the Belmont distance, to have mismanaged a very deserving Triple Crown winner.  Absolutely fantastic performance today.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Ritchey has a very good percentage going. He\'s treated Alex like an individual and two a days were part of his routine for the Ark romp and he was doing two a days early at Pimlico.

The talking heads didn\'t like the routine. Who you gonna defer to, a high percentage trainer giving a horse extra attention or the talking heads?

They said Smarty Jones was an athlete, recalling a story about him doing a back flip to kick at a squirrel that irritated him. If folks have been watching, Alex has pulled some physical movements that are eye boggling. Special horses get special treatment.

Theres some good handicap horses out there, but this is a good three year old.

[MO]

Sounds like Afleet Alex needs a rest after 2 hard races.