Yes

[beyerguy]

Saddlecloth wrote:

> afleet alex will get a huge beyer, probably 116 or so would why
> he not back up off of it, and at a 1 1/2?  Also throw in he
> will be 4/5 if bellamy road is not in the race.

If Afleet Alex gets more than a 105, the Beyer guys are really reaching.  His race was about the same as Zackocity\'s yesterday by the clock.

EDIT:

I forgot when doing figures that I have a built in 5 point downward adjustment for 1 3/16 races at Pimlico from the Beyer scale.  I don\'t know why, but they always seem too high.  That said, I would have guessed 110 for the Beyer.  I hear they actually gave him a 112.  I\'ll stick with my 105.



Post Edited (05-22-05 06:07)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Alex also lost in the neighborhood of 2-4 lengths on the momentum interruption. Its hard to say with certainty how much until we view the race a few more times. Conceding that the lost margin can\'t be scored a 110 appears about right. Zakocity is a good handicap horse, but the pace and \"closing\" fraction in the Preakness were better. Even on the interruption Alex\'s raw time looks to be less than 1.48.8 for 9 marks. Beyer missed on Zakocity too.

The amazing thing to me was not so much that AA won (I made his chances similar to CA, HF, and GG), it\'s how terribly all those  other horses ran.

All year long I\'ve thought that AA was a little better at shorter distances. Therefore I thought he might appreciate 9.5F a little more than 10F. I still don\'t know if I\'m right about that, but if I am you would think he would be vulnerable at 12F in 3 weeks (especially given his running style).  

However, it now looks like the crop is in such shambles he might be able to win regardless if I am right or wrong unless somebody new blossoms very quickly.

[Thehoarsehorseplayer]

If you\'re going to factor in the momentum interruption you better factor in the adrenaline rush the horse was running on at the end.

I\'ve seen it more than once at the race track.  The early speed horse stumbles at the start of the race seemingly dooming his chances and then gathers himself and comes flying at the end to get there or almost get there.  And everybody starts talking about how what a lucky break it was to discover that the speed horse really wants to be a closer.  Wrong.  The horse that stumbled was running out of his head on an adrenaline rush.

Yesterday is a little bit different in that Afleet Alex was going to win anyway.  But he probably could have run two miles on the fear that was pumping through him after the incident.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Crop is Good. The Fab Four didn\'t just vaporize.

Greeley\'s hasn\'t recovered from the Illinois Derby, those two tardy breaks are evidence enough for some that he\'s still not quite right. Stute wanted to take him home, so thats revealing. Still, he was a big 2nd Key for me on his back number and internal Derby explosiveness.

Bandini will make noise if he gets back

Bellamani ran a big, big Wood, though he appears a bit one dimensional.

High Limit ran a big Preakness. Those were HOT fractions at Pimlico for 3YO\'s going that distance. If Going Wild doesn\'t engage him like that, High Limit Certainly gets fourth and probably third.

High Fly never picked up a foot and in retrospect those that bet on him ought to be embarrassed that on the Derby pace and trip we even considered him. He\'ll be back though.

Closing Argument got the benefit of bias Derby Day and all you can say is he too bounced. Sounds like the owners sold an interest when the selling was good. Timing is everything.

Who else was there? Noble Causeway..nahhhh Wilko...nahhhhh Sun King?.......well he got lucky to finish where he did, but he gasping late with no excuse.

Hoarse, if he was adrenaline rushing, the adrenalin started kicking in on the rail midway through the turn.



Post Edited (05-22-05 11:19)

CTC,

I was talking about the crop being in shambles for the Belmont.

Bellamy Road and Bandini are both nice horses, but their current status is a question mark.  

>High Limit ran a big Preakness. Those were HOT fractions at Pimlico for 3YO\'s going that distance.<

He was OK at best.

I made the pace was \"mildly fast\" for Grade 1 3YOs. It was probably too fast for him though because it\'s pretty clear now that he\'s not that good unless he gets loose in a soft pace. Scrappy T was right there and he finished well.

Past biases or not, fast paces or not, CA, HF, and GG all ran like crap yesterday relative to their Derby and other preps.



Post Edited (05-22-05 11:43)

[Thehoarsehorseplayer]

CTC,
 In one of those you\'ll never know the answer to the question is this:  Had Afleet Alex put away Scrappy T as easily as it looked like he was going to, would he have persevered to the wire?

Last year Smart Jones did and more than one pundit has claimed that Elliot\'s decision cost Smarty the Belmont.

After the incident he didn\'t have much choice.  the horse was completely wired.  And probably ran the last sixteenth faster than he would have under normal circumstances.

[beyerguy]

Yes, anyone beaten double digit lengths in yesterday\'s race hardly ran a good race!

Afleet Alex is the only horse that can apparently run decent races back to back, or even 2 out of 3.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is what happens this time of year. The grind of the preps and the Triple Crown races themselves takes a toll.

Thats another reason to favor Alex. Those two a days certainly put some real bottom in him and Ritchey was thinking triple crown trail with that routine. Its not gonna work out for a TC winner, but for the missed conditioning of the Rebel he\'s got the best foundation.

Scrappy got beat off a layoff with a slipped saddle to Bellamania. He\'s many lengths better now and Alex just beat him worse. Scrappy T. is now number 2. They can make a whole lot of money with him if they dodge Alex.

[beyerguy]

No way is Scrappy #2 ahead of Bellamy Road.  The horse was cooked five wide on an insane pace.  If Scrappy gets that trip he might run last.

where is Declan\'s Moon?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, Bellamania was wide in the Derby, but Wide was very good. Unless Bellamania can work an isolated front end run Scrappy is gonna have his number next. The Wood was a complete Toss. Scrappy was a boy without a gun in the Wood. He\'s a man with a rifle now. Scrappy lost a good deal on that final turn as well.

[big18741]

Scrappy T is a healthy 3yo who has tons of room for improvement.I\'m not sure if Bailes is the right guy to get it all out of him,but he has done a nice job gradually bringing him up to this point.

If you pay attention to how the horses look pre race and you should-this was a very healthy feeling good animal pre Withers and Preakness.No visible sweat-shiny coat-good energy-tail up off the body from the time he was saddled until he went into the gate.He moves good over the ground but even before the Preakness he\'s not so smooth in the stretch with lead changes,not paying attention etc.Could be he\'s distance challenged or maybe he\'s not quite mature mentally.

Need to get Dominguez off him.I like Ramon,but you can\'t wallop that horse with all your might in the ribs coming off the turn like that.The trainer seems to think the horse shuts off some when he makes the lead and is unfocused.Dominguez was riding him the first time and thought he could blow the race open coming off the turn.I think Ramon got a little excited thinking he was going to win the race and whacked him good to get him to focus and open up at the top of the stretch.He had no clue AA was right behind him.Bad judgement and careless riding.That horse didn\'t bolt because of the crowd noise.

[jimbo66]

What a ridiculous statement, again.

Bellamy Road beat Scrappy T. by 17 lengths in the Wood.  The \"slipped saddle\" is not noticeable in the replay, and thinking it cost him more than a couple lengths is bogus.

AA beat Scrappy by 5.  

Somehow you call that AA beating him worse than Bellamy.

And you also call High Limit\'s race \"big\".  Gimme a break.  He got beat by 12 lengths.  You call that \"big\"?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

These are young three year olds trying real ground for the first time on both tough and rushed preps. Asking a horse to run .46 and 1.10.3 at Pimlico and hang in there til the very end is a tall order. Pimlico Saturday sure as hell wasn\'t Aqueduct on April 9th.

Bobby Frankel said High Limit would have won if Going Wild didn\'t ruin his parade. Woudn\'t go that far, but he certainly cost him third.

Scrappy blew his rhythm in the last Preakness turn too. When yours truly stated Scrappy would beat Bellamania in a match race at 8.5 marks it was serious. Now, he\'ll beat him at whatever distance Bellamania\'s connections propose. The question is can he beat him in say the Haskell or Jim Dandy? Thats going to depend upon pace. Bellamania is a hostage to pace. Scrappy is not. You gotta love courageous Fit to Fights and Sunny\'s Halo was entirely underrated. This horse is a pure gamer. He\'s the best Fit to Fight yet.

[MO]

\"The Crop is Good. The Fab Four didn\'t just vaporize\".


The crop sucks and the fab four remain the greatest band of all time.

No way Alex gets a mile and a half. I suspect Sun King will be the wise guy horse in the Belmont, which at this point should be reduced from a mile and a half to a mile to accomadate all these friggin milers.