Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

[beyerguy]

He might have some trouble with this math:

\"2. The horse has a 20% chance of winning and you get 5-1. Let\'s say you are right 20% of the time on these. Assuming you make 10 $10 bets and you hit two (20% correct) you are EVEN.\"

[HP]

Class,

Wow.  This is really pathetic.  

As I told Joe, I\'m giving an illustration.  I\'m not giving you track prices!  Yes 5-1 pays $12 at the track but for a math illustration I\'m saying 5-1 is $10.  7/2 is $7 for $2.  

If you want to split hairs, use 3/1 and 4/1 for the illustration instead of 7/2 and 5/1.  If you want to add that extra few bucks from the pari-mutuel \"round up\" in to give yourself a profit go ahead.  That\'s one way to call yourself a winner.

You\'re too much.    

HP

[beyerguy]

You\'re math is way off here HP, 5-1 pays $12 for a $2 bet anywhere, whether its at the track, at the roulette table, or on a football parlay card.

[HP]

Beyerguy,

That answer you too?  Way to nitpick.

HP

[beyerguy]

Nitpick?  That is a huge difference, and could very well be the difference between winning and losing on a regular basis.

You pick 20% winners at 5-1, you can make a ton of money.  You pick 20% winners at 4-1, you break even.  Hardly nitpicking.

davidrex,

\"at the same time I think one of the raggie boys is behind this seris of short stories... \"

I can\'t prove it, but I subjectively think you are right after this latest exchange.
:-)

[HP]

Okay Beyerguy, you\'re right and so is CH.  He\'s a big winner.  He\'s making out like a bandit picking \"not a high percentage\" of 5-1 winners.  Does this mean he\'s picking 20% winners in this odds range?  20% sounds like a pretty good clip to me.  I guess to you, 20% sounds like \"not a high percentage.\"  Who\'s Einstein now?  Yeesh.  

I said I wasn\'t good at math!  Enjoy the rest of the day as the descending sun illustrates the theory of relativity and the speed of light.

HP

[beyerguy]

When I make a mistake, I just say I screwed up.  No big deal.  You are the one who made the Einstein statement then screwed up simple math.  So what, we all make mistakes.  But stop the rationalizing, very childish.

[TGJB]

Okay, everybody knock it off. I have to say, David did a good job describing CH, though.

TGJB,

I spend so much time responding to silly comments about something I said it\'s no wonder I\'m having a bad year at the windows. Why have yot been so tolerant? I expected at least one thorough blasting by now. :-)  

Since the BG is going to be the ROTW, can you give us an opinion on how Afleet Alex is going to run?

He\'s working like he\'s doing well.

[TGJB]

CH-- I have no opinion about what AA will do, although why Ritchey is working him so hard is beyond me. I think I\'m doing a great job of ignoring both you and Friedman, although the provocation in the latter case is extreme.

From the \"Ragozin Insider\" in last week\'s Thoroughbred Times (Free Ragozin figures! And \"Insider\", as in only the thousands of subscribers to that publication and their friends get all the figures run by the top 3yos a few days after they run them): after giving out HF\'s 4 1/2, they say Noble Causeway \"also ran a 4 1/2 largely because he rallied five-wide on the final turn\". As previously discussed, watch the replay yourselves to see where NC was, and whether they should get the same figure.

Now, that article came out a week after the race, and 4 days after I had made an issue of it here, publicly. Meaning, the Ragozin camp made a conscious decision to leave their customers with bad numbers rather than admit a mistake-- that\'s their story, and they\'re sticking to it. Again. So tell me again about those 1/2 point condition moves, and why anyone is supposed to believe anything coming from that source.

Okay, I didn\'t ignore Friedman. So what. At least I\'m not going after that unbelievable post defending half point accuracy by talking about averages. For now, anyway-- I printed it out and might tear it up if I have too much coffee some time.

Right now I\'m going on vacation.

[big ant]

I hear about speed bias all the time, and i think that more often than not there is a perception of a speed bias. I think saving ground is absolutely necessary at certain tracks ie: AQ inner GP main or even Keenland. So on those tracks being on the lead and saving ground is a huge positive; however very good horses overcome anything, and they can win from anywhere. On Aqueduct\'s inner  they usually run immature and weak maiden races early in the day and i think in those races you see alot of speed-pop type winners, and i hear it all the time at the various betting locations \"Speed is golden today\", So most bettors get this perception of a speed bias, and when the better races (Allowance etc..)come up the dynamic changes, and the races  seem to be run with a more level chance to all.

[HP]

Beyerguy,

If you make a bet with someone and you say \"I\'ll give you 3-1,\" do you pay them $7.40?

I didn\'t screw up anything and I have nothing to rationalize.  Move the numbers around a little to make it fit the 10%, 20% and 30% model.  I think you\'re smart enough to know exactly what I meant.  

If you and CH are happy saying, \"no wait, I make $12 at 5-1 so HP is wrong,\" I don\'t think you were really interested in what I had to say anyway.  

HP

[beyerguy]

I really didn\'t know what you meant.  I am always interested in what people have to say.  I love reading handicapping talk, and especially those that don\'t agree with me.  You don\'t learn much talking to people who all think the same way.

Where I am confused is this:  a 5-1 can pay between $12 and 13.80, or a profit of $10 and 11.80.  The $12 was the minimum 5-1 can pay.  In reality, hitting 20% of 5-1 bets is going to make you even more profit because most will pay above $12.

[HP]

Beyerguy,

I don\'t think you read this thread.  You\'re getting bogged down in the details of the math (which by the way, makes perfect sense if you stopped insisting on casino/track payouts and just stuck with 5-1=$10 like a straight-up bet).  

Class is NOT HITTING 20% of his bets, nor does he CONTEND that he does.  He says he \"hits not a high percentage of bets.\"  20% is a fairly high percentage.

So what you say is true, but DOES NOT APPLY to CH.  What you are saying is true, but totally besides the point!  

Maybe you should read the thread.  Or not.

HP