Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

Chris,

I also think CA is a live horse. I used him in the Holy Bull with High Fly and got split out by that horror trip for High Fly. I thought he ran well that day. Unfortunately, he\'s been out for over 2 months. I think he probably missed a lot more than a few days like Bandini. I\'d have a really tough time backing a horse off more than a two month layoff coming into a tough Grade 1 race unless it laid over the field or the price was really big. Using him for second seems reasonable though.

By the way, I agree on Consolidator. That was a freaky sort of wet-fast track. It certainly didn\'t hurt to be on the pace that day.

That is getting to the crux of the race.

Consolidator is no iron clad lock to run back to his last race.

Sun King is no iron clad lock to run back to his prior race considering how slow his last was.

High Limit has almost unlimited potential, but he yet to run a fast race at a route of ground where he wasn\'t loose/walking on the lead against \"second\" or \"no string\" horses (not to mention other things that may have been working in his favor). That won\'t happen this time.  

If there was another really good horse I would be happy to go \"fishing\" at a big price and allow someone with potential to prove themselves against me.



Post Edited (04-12-05 18:08)

[derby1592]

Big,

If that is the case, I suggest you book any bets on CA in the BG...:-)

Chris

P.S. Not surprised to see the rider switch on Mr. Sword, that last ride in the Spiral cost me (and I am sure others) some money...

[Bally Ache]

Mr. Sword worked in 57&4.  That is a sensational workout because Kee has not been as fast as usual so far. No other horse broke 1:00.

You better watch out for this horse fellas and, if he runs to that work, Bailey won\'t even be on High Fly as you were all so sure of ten days ago.

I think Consolidator will be the favorite and should be.  His last race is terrific.  He breezed 58 flat at CD recently so I wouldn\'t look for a bounce.

[big18741]

Two horses won from well off the pace on San Felipe day.Another came from far back to just miss.Consolidator had never shown an affinity for wet tracks in his two prior attempts.He didn\'t freak on a wet fast speed favoring track.His race was legit.

I have no clue if he can repeat or move forward on Saturday,but questioning his San Felipe effort because of the surface is kind of foolish.If anything, the Fairgrounds on La Derby day was the track with the major speed bias.

[big18741]

Speed crazy Spanish Chestnut is now part of the field.

[Michael D.]

tabor using a rabbit?
this is a $500k horse he is sacrificing here. think he might want this race?....
pletcher said last month that bandini probably wasn\'t going to the ky derby if he missed the fla derby. is this the big one for bandini?
...........

HL will have to be a superstar to win this race on the lead against this field in his second start of the year. this isn\'t the field peace rules faced..... although the angle might get overplayed a bit. you HL fans might just get a better price on a great horse.



Post Edited (04-12-05 21:35)

[NoCarolinaTony]

Spaninsh Chesnut is now in. he may also offer early Speed to the race. Will be very interesting now.

NC Tony

big18741,

All IMHO....

I can\'t be certain if there was a bias that day or not because I don\'t know the horses in CA at all, but as I said \"it certainly didn\'t hurt to be on the pace that day\" based on my review of those charts.

One of the closers that won closed off a 21.1 \"42.3\" pace late in the day. (Is that even right? The teletimer showed 41.3 which I assume is impossible. It must have been 43.3)

The other closer was a 1st time starter that also looks like he may have been helped by a 3 way duel. We have no PPs to work with when it comes to him, but maybe he\'s just a tank. The lead horse finished 2nd.  

One thing I am almost certain of is that when there\'s a bias (especially when the track is wet), competent jocks usually catch on after the first couple of races and adjust their styles by becoming more aggressive. Maybe that\'s what happened in at least one of those races. Over-aggressiveness can negate any advantage to be gained by being in front (IMO sometimes it actually hurts).

I certainly wouldn\'t discount the possibility just because every race didn\'t go wire to wire. By definition, if there is a \"bias\" it is not a guarantee. It is simply a bias or advantage.

I know how fast Consolidator ran, but I will not take him as the favorite (or close) off that race. I let horses that win on the front on wet suspect tracks  beat me when they are a short price. I don\'t mind being wrong (and I could very well be) in those cases. Give me a price and I\'ll reconsider. Good luck. :-)



Post Edited (04-12-05 22:28)

[Michael D.]

the SA surface got rock hard on occasions, usually when it was wet fast (TGJB had some interesting things to say about this). some say consolidator benefited from a hard surface, some disagree... it\'s certainly not foolish to put forward the proposition though.

[HP]

\"Speed is the universal bias.\" -- Some Guy Somewhere

The track \"may have been speed favoring.\"  It \"didn\'t hurt to be on the lead.\"  It \"certainly didn\'t hurt to be near the pace that day.\"  

Couldn\'t you say this about almost any track on any day of the week?  How many days do you look at a track and say, \"wow, the closers really have the edge out there today.\"  How can you handicap this way?  Maybe there was a bias.  Maybe there wasn\'t.  My head\'s going to explode.

When the ROTW is at Turfway, that track \"may be speed favoring.\"  Gulfstream \"may be inside speed favoring.\"  Fair Grounds on Louisiana Derby Day was \"speed favoring.\"  Bellamy Road won and \"Aqueduct was probably favoring speed.\"  

Hey, I\'ve heard Keeneland favors speed a little too!  Churchill Downs is not a track that I\'ve heard this about (as much) but the speed has not exactly done poorly in the Derby the last few years either.

A real bias is pretty rare, but based on what I read from some posters on this board it\'s happening every week and explains almost everything.  Maybe.  

After this week it will be the same thing -- \"the track favored speed.\"  \"Keeneland is a notorious speed favoring track.\"  Why bother watching the race?  You might as well start putting those posts up now...because I know they\'ll be up there on Sunday regardless of the result.

HP

[jbelfior]

Chris--

Always respect your posts. However, my opinion on CLOSING ARGUMENT is that his pedigree is chock full of sprinters. Besides SUCCESSFUL APPEAL, CA has speed influences on all sides which includes MR. GREELEY, GROOVY, and CORNISH PRINCE. Not the type of animal I would want to back going a mile and a quarter with 20 in the gate.

WE can look at the Thoros, Beyers, patterns, trainers, etc. All great tools and the best places to start. However, if the horse is not bred to go a mile and a quarter, all of the above factors become moot.

PS:This is not to say that CA will not have a say in the outcome of one of this weekend\'s races.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

HP,

\"Couldn\'t you say this about almost any track on any day of the week? \"

This is my view.

On most days, most tracks give an advantage to speed horses because they can save ground and avoid other traffic issues.

On some days, I think that advantage extends past \"typical/average\".

>How can you handicap this way? Maybe there was a bias. Maybe there wasn\'t. My head\'s going to explode.<

LOL.

I\'m in a different position than some people. I don\'t have to provide a solid \"figure\" that represents performance.

I don\'t have to make a \"top selection\" in a newspaper or forum that others can evaluate.

All I have to do is figure out what price I\'m willing to take on various horses in order to try to net out to long term profits. One of the techniques I use requires that I admit to myself that I can\'t understand everything about every performance and reduce it to a certainty (or close). I form opinions, but realize I could be wrong.

What I try to do is avoid all the \"possible negatives\" and get all the \"possible positive\" on my side.

For example:

Given 2 horses have been running similar figures, I\'d rather have the one that I know for certain ran on an honest track vs. the one that \"may have been helped by a biased surface based on limited evidence\".  

If I can get that honest racetrack horse at a better price, that\'s a bet. If the horse that \"may have run on a biased surface\" is a slightly longer price I pass. No one is holding a gun to my head forcing me to bet when I\'m not sure.  

There\'s a lot of uncertainty in things like biases, controversial figures, horses unproven at a distance, the impact of pace on time, how a race might develop, etc...

All I try to do is get the highest possible price on horses with few or no \"possible\" negatives and as many \"possible positive\" as possible.

It\'s more or less my way of dealing with my admission of ignorance in some situations instead of forming strong opinions that turn out to be wrong and lose me money.

[HP]

Class,

You wrote -

\"Given 2 horses have been running similar figures, I\'d rather have the one that I know for certain ran on an honest track vs. the one that \"may have been helped by a biased surface based on limited evidence\".\"

-- In your posts, I haven\'t seen you give ONE example of a horse that \"for certain ran on an honest track.\"  Virtually EVERY horse \"may have been helped by a biased surface based on limited evidence\" since you seem to find some kind of possible bias nonsense in EVERY race, EVERY week.

\"There\'s a lot of uncertainty in things like biases, controversial figures, horses unproven at a distance, the impact of pace on time, how a race might develop, etc...\"

-- Why don\'t you try using Thoro-Graph?  Seriously.  I have not seen any \"winning insights\" whatsoever in any of your posts, and you post A LOT.  It would mean something if any of this stuff actually led to you successfully handicapping a race.  Reading this board I\'m sure I\'m not the only one wondering when or if you will ever provide anything that leads anyone to cash a ticket.

Over the past three weeks I posted my ROTW picks and hit exactas in two of them.  No bias, no pace, no nothing.  Maybe there is less \"uncertainty\" just looking at the figures!  You must be raking it in with this bias and pace stuff...  Add it all up and show us how it works...  I\'m passing out from holding my breath.

HP

HP,

\"-- In your posts, I haven\'t seen you give ONE example of a horse that \"for certain ran on an honest track.\" \"

There were three 3YO preps that fall into my \"suspect\" category. The rest of the surfaces were honest.  

LA Derby
Wood Memorial
San Felipe

\" Seriously. I have not seen any \"winning insights\" whatsoever in any of your posts, and you post A LOT. \"

All I can say is that I\'ve won money in 7 of the last 9 years playing this way. I had more mixed results for several years before that when I used to bet a lot more short priced horses and saver exactas (that cost me money).

Most horseplayers love the action, so they play lots of races. I pick plenty of shorter priced winners but pass the races because my results indicate that all I\'m doing is spinning money through the windows. I don\'t bet very often even when I identify the most likely winner. It takes a good horse horse at a good price (like Wildcat Heir that I played and spoke about here) to get me to the windows. I also don\'t cash a very high percentage because I\'m not looking for locks. I\'m looking for value and a lot of time that means playing horses with only a 15%-20% chance of winning that I know aren\'t the best horse in the race.

[davidrex]

hp:
ch is like a tv. show sitcom,if you dont care for its content...dont watch