Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

[HP]

1. \"All I try to do is get the highest possible price on horses with few or no \"possible\" negatives and as many \"possible positive\" as possible.\"

2. \"I\'m looking for value and a lot of time that means playing horses with only a 15%-20% chance of winning that I know aren\'t the best horse in the race.\"

These two statements taken together make absolutely no sense.  How could horses with \"few or no negatives and a lot of possible positives\" have only a 15-20% chance of winning?  I mean it makes NO SENSE, Class.  

This is just one example.  Here\'s another.

\"I don\'t bet very often even when I identify the most likely winner. It takes a good horse horse at a good price (like Wildcat Heir that I played and spoke about here) to get me to the windows. I also don\'t cash a very high percentage because I\'m not looking for locks.\"

If you don\'t bet very often and you don\'t cash a very high percentage you must hit BOMBS every time you hit to turn an annual profit.  What\'s your average mutuel payoff?  Do you play exotics?  I would guess you don\'t play too many exotics because picking ONE horse to play must be very hard for you, let alone two or three.  

I\'d love to hear how you do this.  Judging by this last paragraph, you must hit 10-1 to 20-1 shots pretty steady.  If you can do this, why don\'t you share your methods, specifically, instead of posting these inane generalities?  

This reminds me of another guy who used to post here all the time and he was another wizard who would explain that he \"didn\'t want to hurt his price\" and \"he didn\'t have to give picks.\"  So he had A LOT of ideas that had nothing to do with TG and he never demonstrated whether or not they worked.  He never laid out a race or said what he thought would happen before the fact either.  You were just supposed to take it on faith that he was a winner.  I don\'t buy it.  Show me!  If I can do it, so can you.  If you can\'t, I think that says everything anyone needs to know about your abilities.

I think Davidrex is right.

HP

HP,

I don\'t hit a high percentage because I don\'t always bet the best horse in the race.

I haven\'t checked my average price over those years (I still have the data though), but I almost never bet anything less than 7-2. So that should give you some idea.

By positives and negatives, I was referring strictly to some of the subjective things that IMO can\'t be quantified perfectly.

Here\'s my exact thinking on the Blue Grass.

I see and use all the same speed figures as everyone else. I can make the same pattern projections.

However....

I don\'t want to bet a horse whose only big figure came on a wet fast rolled track that might have been carrying speed if he\'s the favorite or close. That\'s because I think horses like that tend to underform their figures/odds compared to similar horses that earned their figures under typcial conditions.  

I don\'t want to bet a horse whose only fast  route came with a loose lead/slow pace on a \"suspect\" track, against weak horses as the favorite or close. That\'s because I know that a lot of horses like that fall apart when they are tested for the first time.

I don\'t want to bet a highly regarded horse from the Zito barn when his last race was so darn slow - even though I expect better - when he\'s the favorite or close.  

Those are all very good horses. I can see why someone could make a good case for any one of them being the most likely winner.  
I just wouldn\'t bet any of them at short odds because IMHO they are all potentially flawed relative to their figures.

However, I might consider a horse like Bandini even though I am fairly certain he\'s not the fastest horse, not the most likely winner, and probably doesn\'t have a very high chance of winning.

The reason I might be willing to do so is because I think I have an excellent guage on his ability. He hasn\'t been as fast as the others, but he\'s not that far behind and he earned his figures on legit surfaces against legit quality fields.

I think extremely highly of Pletcher\'s skill at spotting and improving young horses. If he didn\'t think this horse had a good shot, he wouldn\'t be in this race. He would have looked for a softer prep.  

I don\'t think the Florida 3YOs are getting as much credit as they deserve based on how they have performed elsewhere and others have performed when they have shipped into FL.

The only thing between me and a bet, is the price. I am trying to figure out how negative I am about the others and how concerned I am about Bandini missing some training. I\'m not sure yet what price will provoke me into making the bet.

At a certain price I will feel that I got compensated for the fact that Bandini is slower coming in because some of the others \"may not\" be as good as they look.

If I do bet and he finishes 4th/5th etc... I will still feel comfortable with the bet.  

If one of the others proves that he really is a superstar and that my concerns were unwarranted, I will still feel comfortable with the bet.

That\'s an example of how I think - for better or worse!

Now if the track comes up favoring speed tomorrow........ LOL



Post Edited (04-13-05 13:07)

[HP]

Class,

So you might bet on Bandini if the price is right.  Maybe before the race you can write a definitive sentence like...

\"I will play Bandini to win at 10-1 or more.\"

or

\"I will play Bandini to win and use him under High Limit and Sun King.\"

Using your logic, if I liked Bandini I would probably have to get AT LEAST 15-1, because the only way he can win is if NONE of the faster horses fire (and there are AT LEAST three of them -- probably more) and I would say the odds that Frankel, Zito, etc. will come up completely empty here are pretty long.

Hopefully you can consolidate (no pun intended) this into one coherent sentence before the race.  It really isn\'t that hard.  

You should have some clue of what price you will take...  I know it\'s got to be A LOT better than 7/2!  Because...

At 3-1, if you make equal win bets and hit three out of ten races you break about even.  That\'s winning at better than a 30% clip.  

If you \"don\'t cash a high percentage\" of your bets (your words) your average mutuels have to be MUCH higher than 7/2.  I don\'t see how you could even LOOK at a 7/2 shot and make money.  

My math isn\'t that great, but if you hit say, 10% of your races, your average mutuel has to be 10-1 to BREAK EVEN.  So given EVERYTHING you have written here, if you turn this annual profit playing the way you say you play, I don\'t see how you could be looking at ANYTHING under 10-1 (remember, you hit a pretty small percentage and turn a profit, right?).  If you make out playing 4-1 or 5-1 shots, your winning pct. must actually be pretty high...contrary to what you say.

HP

[NoCarolinaTony]

CH-

I\'m sorry but your posts are making me dizzy. In the real world you must be either a lawyer or a purchasing agent. I have never seen so much double speak put into writing as I have in your posts.

NC Tony

HP,

LOL.

7-2/3-1 is the \"minimum\" odds I usually take because my long term records indicate that even when I have a pretty strong opinion, I don\'t win much money on shorter priced horses. I just spin money through the windows. I\'m not that good at seperating out who should be 8-5 vs. who should be 6-5 etc...  Sometimes I actually like a horse a lot and think he deserves to be 2-1! So 7-2 is fine. :-)

I\'m thinking maybe 8-1 on Bandini would get me off the sofa. :-)

[jbelfior]

HP--

You must be very impressed with CH to ask all these questions.

If the guy is keying in on 8-1 shots or better, ever think he may be cashing some nice exactas?





Good Luck,
Joe B.

[HP]

Joe,

\"You must be very impressed with CH to ask all these questions.\"

Quite the opposite.  I\'m asking all the questions because it\'s becoming increasingly obvious to me that CH is full of it.

\"If the guy is keying in on 8-1 shots or better, ever think he may be cashing some nice exactas?\"

Joe, CH didn\'t say ANYTHING about keying in on 8-1 shots...  Class said 7/2 was his \"minimum.\"  It\'s IMPOSSIBLE to \"not cash a high percentage\" of bets and win playing 7/2, 4-1 or even 5-1.  And I mean IMPOSSIBLE!  

Here\'s an illustration.

Bandini is 8-1.  You play $10 win Bandini and $5 exactas with two of the shorter priced horses OVER Bandini.

Bet is $20.

High Limit wins at 5/2 and Bandini finishes second.  The crowd is all over the high profile connections and the exacta pays $28 (which is a decent 14-1!).  You get back $70 for a $50 profit.  If Bandini wins you get back $80 for a $60 profit.  It doesn\'t matter because...

You don\'t cash a \"high percentage\" of your bets.  Assuming THIS is the one you cash, and then you lose your next seven $20 bets, and overall, your winning percentage for the day, week, or whatever is a \"not high\" 12%.  

This is called going broke.  And this is with an 8-1 shot winning!  

The ONLY way it\'s mathematically possible to win cashing a \"not high\" pct. of your bets is to BANG LONGSHOTS to win or to get LONGSHOT COMBO exactas.  8-1 winners won\'t do it (you need to hit 12.5% of your bets to break even!), and 8-1 exactas with shorties won\'t do it either.  If he starts talking about boxing Bandini with some other longshots then we\'re in business.  As I said before, I\'m turning blue holding my breath on this...

He writes -- \"sometimes I actually like a horse a lot and think he deserves to be 2-1! So 7-2 is fine.\"

No, it isn\'t fine.  You can\'t play 7/2, hit a \"not high percentage\" of your bets and turn a profit.  And you can put in all the crap you want.  As Anthony Newley sang, it\'s IMPOSSIBLE!    

You don\'t have to be a deli man to know baloney.

HP

HP,

I think it\'s pretty obvious you don\'t understand my betting yet. By now I am pretty sure I\'m really testing JB\'s patience. So this will be the last try.

I am looking for overlays just like everyone else. However, historically when I looked for them in the lower odds categories like
5-2 and lower, I didn\'t have much success. I bet a lot of money and made nothing. I think that\'s probably true of a lot of people, they just don\'t keep good enough records to know it.  

When I looked for overlays among longer priced horses, I tended to do much better.

Hence the approximate cutoff of 7-2 (on     rare occasions I wil take less).

However, the odds I am willing to accept on any individual horse are 100% correlated to my estimate of the horses\'s chances.

If I think 10%, I want 12-1.

If I think 20%, I want 5-1.

If I think 30%, I want 7-2.

And so on.

The net of all the horses I bet do not win a particularly high percentage of the time because it is made up of some low percentage horses, but the odds have compensated on an individual basis.

[HP]

Class,

I understand perfectly, and you are only making my point, JB\'s exasperation notwithstanding.  Corresponding with you I swear I feel like Albert Einstein.

You wrote,

\"However, the odds I am willing to accept on any individual horse are 100% correlated to my estimate of the horses\'s chances.

1. If I think 10%, I want 12-1.

2. If I think 20%, I want 5-1.

3. If I think 30%, I want 7-2.\"

When you say this, I believe you.  

1. The horse has a 10% chance of winning and you get 12-1.  Let\'s say you are right 10% of the time.  Assuming 10 $10 bets and you hit one (10% correct) you are ahead $20.  Mazel tov bro.

2. The horse has a 20% chance of winning and you get 5-1.  Let\'s say you are right 20% of the time on these.  Assuming you make 10 $10 bets and you hit two (20% correct) you are EVEN.

3. The horse has a 30% chance of winning and you get 7/2.  Let\'s say you are right...I don\'t know...30% of the time on these (which would make sense given the shorter prices).  Assuming you make 10 $10 bets and you hit three (30% correct), guess how you\'re doing?  

You started out saying how you \"did not hit a high percentage of your bets?\"  Based on your posts I believe you!  So if you are indeed turning a profit, you must actually be hitting a higher percentage of them than you think, no?  

You MUST be hitting MORE than 30% of your 7/2 shots, MORE than 20% of your 5/1 shots, and MORE than 10% of your 12/1 shots.  Otherwise you can\'t turn a profit.  Remember Anthony Newley...  It\'s IMPOSSIBLE my friend!  

So you are either full of it or you are actually wrong and hitting a fairly HIGH percentage of your bets (more than 10, 20 or 30%, respectively)...  Judging by your post, you could probably rattle off just how well you do in each odds bracket (you keep records, right?)...  

I think I understand you just fine...

HP

[jbelfior]

HP--


You\'re assuming he wagers the same amount of money for each race he bets.

I can lose 9 $20 win bets (all on 8-1 shots or better) and be down $180 and then hit an 8-1 shot in the last race (which I make my prime bet) with a $200 win ticket.

I leave the track hitting 10% of my bets, have invested $380 and am ahead $1420.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[davidrex]

clss h. must be racings answer to don king. the way he insisently carries on in a benign if somewhat narcissistic conversation about his favorite subject[himself].
he doesnt debate or argue and validify his points,he just keeps coming at you with his chummy rhetoric.im starting to aquire a fondness for his civility. at the same time I think one of the raggie boys is behind this seris of short stories... i kinda like you ch...i\'d like you even more if you stopped turning your cheek and actually defended your ideas[whatever they are]

HP,

If I get 5-1 on horses with a 20% chance of winning I am profiting.

-2
-2
-2
-2
+10  (5-1 pays $12)
____
+2

If I get 7-2 on horses with a 30% chance of winning I am profiting.

-2
-2
+7  (7-2 pay $9)
-2
-2
-2
+7
-2
-2
+7
___
+7

[davidrex]

after that lesson in physics...i\'m convinced we have a raggie virus!!!

[HP]

Joe,

Come on.  Obviously I\'m giving examples with equal size units to clarify the math involved.  You\'re probably onto something though...  CH probably loses his $20 bets and wins his $200 plays.  That\'s probably how he turns that annual profit.  

HP

davidrex,

\"i\'d like you even more if you stopped turning your cheek and actually defended your ideas[whatever they are]\"

LOL.

The only way subjective things can be defended is at the windows. Unfortunately, some things can be observed but not measured with precision like race time.