Many many question for TG

Started by kev, March 15, 2005, 06:36:20 PM

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kev

This is all from the Graph Code Key:
1. The op\'s op+ or op- you all don\'t add this into the figs right?? and if so may I ask why, if you know by how many L\'s a horse was off by??
2. The  H? =Horse may not have been extended....How should we look at this one, in handicapping??
3. Also could you tell us about the H_ and S_ pace codes??
4. The tu = taken up and checked how much is this effect a number??
5. The X = ran on a dead rail, when seeing one of these and it\'s a off or x race should we toss that race, and if they pair up or when forward that would be that much greater right??
Thanks for your time.....keep up the good work.

richiebee

...expanding on Kev\'s questions, does anyone else think it would be helpful if a fig earned in a WINNING RACE was somehow distinquished on the TGs? (I obviously do not use lifetime PPs. The more info I have, the less positive results I tend to get).

HP

Maybe the guys are busy, so I\'ll take a whack at this as I wait for my meeting...

1.  Not added to figs.  Each \'+\' is a length.  You can make an adjustment or not.  I don\'t.  It\'s a trackman\'s observation.  There\'s no way of knowing if the horse would\'ve run better if he wasn\'t off poorly.  There are other variables, so I think it would be presumptuous for TG to make this adjustment for you.

2.  H? is also a trackman\'s observation.  In my experience, I don\'t think you really know how hard the horse was working.  If the jockey\'s sitting still, the horse could still be working his ass off.  For me, a minor factor.  I\'ve seen plenty bounce off the h? race.  

3.  Generally used in turf races (90% of the time?).  If today\'s race has a few speedballs it may have an impact, or it may not.

4.  The horse\'s effort MAY have been compromised.  It may be just as stressful to start and stop than it is to run a blazing new top.  Another minor thing for me.  Plus it may happen again today.  Some horses always get in trouble (Dollar Bill?).  May be a function of running style.

5.  I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen a horse pair a top or move forward on a dead rail.  It generally looks like 5, 6, 13X.  May be very stressful.  Has he had time to recover?  Dead rail today?  For me, another minor factor.

Richiebee,

I have no interest in whether the horse won or lost.  This info IS available on TG as well.  Since EVERYBODY with a program knows this, I don\'t think it has any value.  A horse that won last out may be overbet.  That\'s about it for me.

Good luck.  HP

TGAB

This is all from the Graph Code Key:
1. The op\'s op+ or op- you all don\'t add this into the figs right?? and if so may I ask why, if you know by how many L\'s a horse was off by??
2. The H? =Horse may not have been extended....How should we look at this one, in handicapping??
3. Also could you tell us about the H_ and S_ pace codes??
4. The tu = taken up and checked how much is this effect a number??
5. The X = ran on a dead rail, when seeing one of these and it\'s a off or x race should we toss that race, and if they pair up or when forward that would be that much greater right??
Thanks for your time.....keep up the good work.

Kev
1. op- means less than 2 lengths; op means 2 but less than 4 lengths; op+ means 4 but less than 6 lengths; op++ means 6 but less than 8 lengths; and op+++ means 8 or more lengths.

As HP notes these are estimates based upon the trackman\'s observations. And as defined they\'re not tight enough to be used as a variable computing the horse\'s figure. And indeed as HP states we\'re not quite sure what affect it had on its performance. Also this behavior can be habitual and ascribing effort can turn into a trap. Thus we note it but let you determine its significance.        

2. h? means the horse didn\'t appear to be fully extended in the trackman\'s eyes. Again its significance is debatable. As HP notes many horses bounce off such efforts and quiet rides don\'t necessarily stress-free rides.

In terms of handicapping, simply look at the figure in the context of the horse\'s sheet. Is it a top? Repeat?, How big is the top? etc. The figure inself in the context of the line provides the best indication of just how taxing or not the effort was.

3. s_pace means unusally slow pace which affected the final time of a race. h_pace means unusally fast pace which may or may not have affected a horse\'s performance in the race. Both are denoted by the figure maker. The former is easy to catch since the final time is affected. The latter is not as easy to catch. Again we let you determine their significance.

4. tu means steadied, checked or maybe blocked and it is NOT in the figure. This note results from the trackman\'s observation.

Part of our trackman\'s job is to note anything during the course of a race which may have affected performance. Checked, steadied, and/or blocked occurred but the degree is open to question, which again is why we note it but let you determine its significance.      

5. X means a horse ran on a dead rail. The figure accompanying this symbol is almost always an off or x effort. Rarely is it a top or repeat.

If the figure is a top or repeat examine the figure in the context of the line to determine significance. Off or x efforts off dead rails more than occasionally can produce good betting opportunities. Again current condition is important but I\'d be very inclined to give a dead rail horse a mulligan if indeed it fits in today\'s race, especially at a juicy parimutuel.
TGAB

NoCarolinaTony

TGAB,

Are you using your own people at the major tracks to develop your charts distances paths etc? or is the information obtained another way and if so how is that done (video replay for instance)?

Been curious about that...

NC Tony

kev


TGAB

Yes, we use observers, some of whom also work as Equibase trackmen. They note runups, wind direction and velocity, paths, track maintenance, weather, and any occurence pre-race or during the race which may have affected performance.  In addition they hand-time races. Final time, beaten lengths, weight, equipment and medication information are provided by the official chart callers and photo finish companies. We review the official charts, integrate our own data and occasionally when warranted will recheck the data inputs to make sure everything input-wise checks out. Variants are made and we have our \"hard\" figures. \"Hard\" figures are denoted by emboldened path information in the upper left of the sheet.

We also make figures for tracks where we do not have an observer. For these tracks, we again utilize official chart caller and photo finish company information. We do not have runup or weather information other than track condition. We estimate ground loss using a model we\'ve developed which takes track configuration, starting posts, and points of call and attendent lengths behind or ahead information into account. These estimates are checked by the figure maker looking at the chart notes. Variants are made and we have our \"soft\" figures. \"Soft\" figures are denoted by italicized path information in the upper left of the sheet.
TGAB

NoCarolinaTony

Alan,

Thanks for the insight. I know its hard work to keep up. You guys are very good at what you do.

NC Tony

kev

One more thing Alan......Are you guys going to be moving the number scale back anytime soon?? or at all??

TGJB

I\'m still waiting to see if they get serious about drugs before making a decision about adding 5 points to the data base. But if they haven\'t dealt with it by this November, that\'s it.

TGJB

beyerguy

Why 5, and not 10, or 15?  Just curious, if its the negatives people don\'t like, 5 isn\'t going to fix the issue.

TGJB

We want to keep the number scheme relatively close to what everyone has become accustomed to. And as far as the other business goes, a) some of us do care about comparing horses from different generations, and b) all of us care about the figures being right. If you make them right you can compare horses from different tracks AND different generations. If you make figures conform to pars you can\'t do either.

TGJB

kev

What I do when I get TG sheets is I mark out the numbers and add 5 on to them myself.

TGJB

Pretty funny, Kev. If you agree with Ragozin\'s view of the off tracks, you can add 8 for those.

TGJB

dodie

When you hand time races, Do you start the clock when the gate opens or when the first horse hits the beam?
tnks