Many many question for TG

[TGJB]

We clock from the gate, measure the run-up (distance between gate and beam), use a run-up chart to compare it to track time.

[dodie]

Jerry
  Thanks.  This means that your figures are made with a \"unique\", accurate, comparable from track to track race time.  

  What\'s the purpose of comparing your hand time to the beam time?  Double checking?

[TGJB]

Dodie-- yes, that\'s exactly why-- generally the teletimer is more accurate than hand timing, but when you get a weird one it\'s good to have a check. The other reason we go through the exercise is to get the lengths of the runups for their own sakes--  a short or long runup can affect final time, and keeping track of when they change things lets you know how to correlate different distances, and even different races at the same distance. At Laurel years ago, they would go with really short (like 20 foot) runups for the 7f races and longer ones (like 60 foot) for the 6f races on some days, then reverse them on other days, and have them the same on yet others. Anyone who assumed the distance relationships were a constant was in real trouble.

Of course, changes in runups will also have a dramatic effect on fractions (see Pimlico 6f fractions, where they have a 5 foot runup). But I\'m sure those making pace figures are all getting race to race runups and accurate wind info.

[jmiller]

\"Of course, changes in runups will also have a dramatic effect on fractions (see Pimlico 6f fractions, where they have a 5 foot runup). But I\'m sure those making pace figures are all getting race to race runups and accurate wind info.\"

I have no idea if they are or not.  Maybe such precision is nice, but not necessary to achieve success, who knows?  But like I said before, you can\'t argue with a substantial flat bet profit for four tracks that were posted betting EVERY race for nearly three months.  You\'ve avoided this twice, saying you didn\'t know what results I was talking about even after I told you where to find them.

Like I said before, I use both products, as I think they are both very good.  And to be honest, many times they point to the same exact horses despite the differing methodologies.  I know the $65 FG looked every bit as good from the pace guy that he did on the TG sheets.  There is more than one way to skin a cat, some races you need a different knife.  But to pretend pace can\'t be measured to produce solid results isn\'t necessarily true.

[TGJB]

Okay, Miller. Let\'s play.

So, Paul traced you back through the maze, and found that your posts originated from the same web host as the site you are pushing (in Belgium, no less). Some coincidence. He wanted to block you, I told him not to. Given that you didn\'t disclose your relationship, it\'s pretty obvious that anything you say is suspect. But let\'s go through the exercise:

1-- We know you say there has been some kind of betting profit, and if I looked at the site I\'m pretty sure it would indicate that. Of course, a) we don\'t know whether those picks were made in advance or not, since you pointed them out retroactively, and b) we don\'t know whether there were others not listed during that period, and c) we don\'t know whether there were earlier periods that lost.

That particular stunt is what Ragozin pulled in his book-- he talked about his betting venture in Atlantic City, and how the DRF monitored it, and how he made over $100k in win bets and showed a 14% profit. That was all true, but he neglected to mention the 400k he bet into other pools, and that the venture as a whole was a significant loser-- Brad Free called him on it when he reviewed the book for the DRF. Ragozin cherry-picked the one set of results that made him look good. (And by the way, in the same chapter Ragozin delivered an open invitation for a handicapping contest with \"any leading public handicapper to fight things out with my system, but I doubt very much that anyone with a reputation would accept the dare\". The day after reading that I publicly challenged Len to a contest, and he turned me down, publicly).

And all this aside, even if everything was kosher, there are the questions of what OTHER things (like TG) factored into your plays, how much is attributable to pace data and handicapping, and what relevence a relatively short sample has at all.

2-- You have no idea whether runups and wind affect fractions? Really? That\'s pretty scary, especially if you are, as you appear, behind the data.

I have no idea whether your data is worth anything or not, but I know that what you have said here so far is not. If you want us to track your plays going forward, I\'m sure someone out there will (Jimbo?). The interesting ones will be where your data and picks CONFLICTS with what we see on TG.

Welcome to the Thoro-Graph site.

[jmiller]

OK, let\'s play.  First off, I am not the guy who runs the site.  I\'m Tony Miles, an Army SSG, and his name is Craig, an Air Force guy.  I am stationed with him here in NATO, and I\'m a fellow horse player.  There aren\'t many of us in the military.  He is actually pissed I posted here in the first place.  He posts here himself from time to time, and it is not like he is trying to hide that.  I told him about the thread with CH, and that he should jump in, and he declined to get involved, so I did.  So yes, I screwed up.  He thinks my posting here is the reason he is being harassed about posting free figures on the internet now by DRF/Equibase.

As for the results, he posted numbers for four tracks every day, before the races.  He always left the figures up after he posted results, win or lose, as he had some losing weeks.  There are tons of people who knew about this site on other boards.  I find it hard to believe you didn\'t.  But I\'m saying no way he posted phony results and didn\'t get called on it.

So, as for #2, no I don\'t know.  He  has never told me any specifics about his numbers.  I know the basics, pace, speed, weight, but that\'s about it.  I\'ve offered to help with variants, but he has another guy (his brother I think) that helps him, and he doesn\'t seem very eager to share.

[TGJB]

Everything else aside, the internet is an amazing thing, and it\'s astounding how horseplayers from all over the world have found this site-- Moscow, Switzerland (Doug, where\'d you go?), Belgium, England, etc. Also, we have another guy who teaches miltary history here in the states, I think.

The part I\'m interested in about this (and I\'m not the only one, someone in the industry called me about it yesterday) is DRF\'s involvement. What\'s their issue?

[jmiller]

I don\'t really know much about DRF problems other than they don\'t want him giving out free figures.  You could ask him, or some Mark guy from the Form.

[TGJB]

  Oh, boy. It\'s Marc, he runs the DRF website, and we know him well-- he\'s been barred from this site for lying about us. I have made clear my opinion of that guy many times, he reads this board for sure, and it may very well be that\'s what set things off.

Please keep me informed about this. If you don\'t want to do it here, you can get me at jerry@thorograph.com.

J Miller,

Believe me, you are wasting your time if you debate this issue further.  Those of us that have used those pace/performance figures know their quality and value and have seen the results.

The real issue is that his work has temporarily been pulled and we should try to help him bring it back if the conversations here had anything to do with it.

I discovered the figures several months ago based on commentary on this board.



Post Edited (03-21-05 15:35)

[Saddlecloth]

I really dont know why drf has any say.  I mean you buy their data file, use an algorithm where you add your own veriable to produce a number.  Why would they offer the data files and have a problem doing this?  They dont offer pace figures in their product so they have no issues their.

saddle,

I don\'t think DRF has any case really.

He makes the final time speed figures himself.

He makes the pace figures himself.

The process for creating performance figures based on the combination of pace and speed figures has been dicussed by numerous handicappers and in books by Quinn, Quirin, Brohammer and others.

His methodology is similar and is certainly not anything the DRF offers to its customers. I think the real issue for the time being is actually fighting the DRF.

[Saddlecloth]

I just think its bull that drf is trying to bully the player.  

My opinion of drf, from thier writing, to their business tatics is really shrinking as of late.

[TGJB]

I\'m interested in seeing how this plays out, but the legal questions that will apply in this case have nothing to do with what CH said (doesn\'t matter whether it\'s for pace figures or light reading). As a guy who has done deals with DRF and Equibase, the issues will be about re-use of DRF data in some form, the way it is obtained, laid out, resold etc. This came up in all negotiations with Equibase-- if he is not buying bulk data from DRF, just buying hardcopy and keypunching it in, he won\'t have a problem. If he\'s buying it electronically he may or may not, pending contracts, disclaimers etc.

[beyerguy]

Here is the catch:  You don\'t have to buy anything from anybody.  Equibase gives the charts away every day, for free, with plenty of info to make competent figures.  Certainly not to the extent of info used to make TG figures, but more than enough to make Beyer style.