California Beyers

JB,

I\'ve been reviewing the Beyer figures for some of the CA stakes races for 2005.

Almost all the dirt stakes horses are running Beyer figures below Par for the class. Granted, the better older horses are usually not wound up 100% at this point in the season, but these are low Beyer figures.  So if the CA Beyers are inflated relative to other tracks, the CA stakes horses are totally dreadful so far this year.

Here\'s a few covering multiple divisions. Some figures may have been tweaked a point or two since they were first given out. Beyer does go back and tweak things from time to time.

Mailbu 102
Strub 109
San Antonio 102
San Pasqual 96
San Rafael 93
Sham 100
Sn Fernando 102
San Vincente 91
Santa Monica 100
Santa Ysabel 86
El Encino 95
Palos Verdes 103
La Canada 95
Las Virgenes 91
Santa Maria 97

Pretty much all of these figures are below  par for the specific class except for the Sham. Decent 3YOs start breaking into the low 100s right around now.



Post Edited (03-04-05 09:45)

[beyerguy]

Which makes me wonder why you might think they are inflated?  They are poor to be sure, I don\'t think it is possible they could be much lower.

[Saddlecloth]

Class,

I have long been on the side that the east coast horses tend to have inflated beyer numbers.  Sometimes I look at the winner of the champagne and frizette and the huge numbers and scratch my head thinking that they are too high.

I mean socal racing has taken a beating, and as well they should in some cases, but they can compete.  Last year was supposed to be a super down year, and they still won two BC races.  The year before they won 5.  I also see them shipping into win the met mile, cigar, carter, etc.  So maybe here and there a number could be off, but in general they live up to the numbers.

Now vica versa, I can hardly remember, other then good reward, a horse who shipped east and got it done recently.  I do know some horse tried it in a restricted to four year old stake this meet and got burried by average horses like imperilism and rock hard ten.

I hadn\'t even considered the possibility that the CA figures were inflated. Yesterday Jerry said they might be so I looked for some evidence of it. I think it is relevant to the Fountain of Youth where Papi Chullo is shipping in with a good CA Beyer relative to that field.

Given that almost all theses races are slow relative to par, there is no evidence they are inflated. I happen to think that CA has some pretty bad horses out there right now though.

[Saddlecloth]

my contention is that they dont have the depth, but as far as the cream goes its not all that bad.  I mean in recent years Azeri, Pleasently Perfect, Storming Home, Pico Central all shipped around the world and won. How bad can they be?

[TGJB]

I\'m not offering an opinion about the California horses, which are strong in some divisions and weak in others, and I\'m not offering an opinion about California Beyers vs. \"pars\" for certain types of races. I\'m offering an opinion about Beyers for California races vs. Beyers for races in other places.

If you go back on this board to a few days after the Sunshine Millions, you will find a post I made about the horses from all over the country who ran, how they looked on Beyer, and how they looked on TG. Specifically, I made the point about the first 3 finishers in the race Lost In The Fog won, who came from 3 different circuits, and the FG shipper (Hot Storm) who won the 2yo filly race. As it happens, LITF and Santana Strings are back in the Swale, and Hot Storm is back in the Forward Gal-- if you take a look at their Beyers and TG figures you will see the kind of thing I\'m talking about.

By the way, Santana Strings will carry 116, not the 122 listed.

TGJB,

>I\'m offering an opinion about Beyers for California races vs. Beyers for races in other places.<

I understand, but that doesn\'t make any sense based on his CA figures.

If the CA figures are inflated relative to other places and the CA stakes figures are running below the PAR for the class, that would mean that all those other tracks must we running WAY below par for the class.

There is no evidence of that.

Perhaps he screwed up a \"few\" CA figures, but generally the CA figures are in sync with the other major circuits.

Perhaps he has Turfway and another track or two too low.

However, based on the CA figures running below average, I can\'t believe they are inflated in general.

Ragozin is another story.

[TGJB]

\"If the California figures are inflated relative to the other places and the CA stakes figures are running below the par for the class, that would mean that all those other tracks are running WAY below par for the class\".

No, it doesn\'t. Think it through.

The right way to find out is to look at a large sampling of horses from various parts of the country when they move around, especially at neutral sites-- meaning when they aren\'t shipping cold to warm. Sunshine Millions and BC were good examples.

The test is not who wins-- it\'s what figures horses from different circuits run relative to their other figures. Beyer says they have a program for this-- well, it ain\'t working.

TGJB,

I understand the technique you are suggesting, but I don\'t have the database required to do a detailed study like that. Andy supposedly does though and I would be surprised if he doesn\'t spot check CA and NY.

I\'ve done an enormous amount of work over the years on the average winning figure for stakes races by grade, age, sex, and time of year - using Beyer figures (PARs).

Typically, there are weak divisions and sections of the country from time to time, but the figures have been remarkably consistent over the long haul. The average figure for stakes (especially high level older horses) tend to hover around the PAR.

With virtually every stakes division in CA (on dirt) currently running figures below PAR, that strongly suggests that these are all below average horses.

If these figures are also inflated relative to some other tracks around the country, that would certainly mean that this is the most dreadful group of CA stakes horses - covering multiple divisions - we\'ve seen in  decades (on a relative basis).  

I can\'t believe that is true. They are weak, but they aren\'t dreadful. I think it is far more likely he screwed up a few days or figures in CA or that some of his figures from second tier tracks are too low. But CA almost cannot be inflated.

[TGJB]

On dirt, they have indeed been dreadful, and more importantly, thin. That was the thinking behind the purchase of 5yo Even The Score-- he was maybe the 40th best older male dirt horse east of the Rockies, but we sent him to California where as a 6yo he won two GIIs, and was favored for the GI Hollywood Gold Cup, which he would have won if not for a wide trip.

Take a look at how few horses that had been running in California were even entered in the BC dirt races, and where they finished on average. Take a look at the horses that won the big 3yo stakes in California, and how they ran against Eastern 3yos. Most importantly, look at how the figures we assigned horses for all those races and others held up.

This is not to say all California divisions are weak-- the turf horses are strong, as are the current 3yo fillies. But if you think Declan\'s Moon and Roman Ruler really ran the figures Beyer gave them at DMR, if you think Lost In The Fog ran 3 lengths better at Turf Paradise than Gulfstream, if you think Hot Storm ran the best race of her life by many lengths at SA, if you think RHT and Imperialism ran 109 at SA last time, think again. I mean, doesn\'t it seem a little weird to you that those last two get all their best figures in California?

[Saddlecloth]

RHT figure from the last two were high in my opinion, and I pointed that out here.
 
I still think in general though that the numbers are correct.

I guess you say that the 40th best east coast horse was purchased to be sent to beat up on weaker competition, but if thats the case how come numbers 1-39 dont take advantage of all the stakes cash thats out there in socal of they are superior?

[TGJB]

Drum roll...

Because I\'m not advising them.

Also because trainers don\'t like to ship, and horses often need time to acclimate-- which means staying with other trainers. The ones who do run on both coasts-- like Frankel-- usually are California based.

[Michael D.]

intersting beyer/TG difference shows up in the big cap at SA. beyer has the strub pretty fast (109). TG has the race pretty slow (considering imperialism was 1w/4w). i remember thinking that race kind of collapsed. i though imperialism ran close to his previous top, maybe a bit faster though. TG has him repeating. in the san antonio, it\'s the other way around. beyer has the race on the average side (104), while TG has it a bit faster. will be interesting to see how the big cap unfolds. i see TGJB\'s point regarding the FOY. KCB and PC ran the same beyer in their last race (considering the 1 length KCB gave), and TG has KCB considerably faster. i liked PC in the sham, but only because the race looked real weak to me. as for declan\'s 7f race at Dmr, looks like TG is alone on that one. a \"4.5\" for a 1:21.1 run? how fast could the track have been that day? snack\'s #\'s aren\'t that far apart. add the six lengths that beyer doesn\'t account for, and he has snack\'s last pretty fast also. interesting horse; he won\'t be six wide in this small field, especially with three of them going.

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
didn\'t see your post, took a while to get through my last one (finishing work here). i guess i addressed some of the same points as you did. will be a very interesting day.

[mrhill]

Lets not forget that Even the Score\'s trainer was Vladimir Cerin who was caught using milkshakes.