California Beyers

[TGJB]

Michael, in general, that\'s the right way to approach the question. Specifically, that\'s the kind of thing I did with several posts in Spring 03 examining Ragozin\'s sprint vs. route figures in California, and in other posts before the BC that year looking at his numbers in general. That stuff upset a lot of people, but common sense goes a long way.

I haven\'t looked at any turf figures for CA.

I think we agree that that there are \"some\" inflated CA figures (Roman Ruler/Declan for sure).

Some of the Turfway Park figures look low.  

I haven\'t examined everything.  

However, something like RHT and Imperialism running a 109 is not impossible. That\'s actually a weak Beyer figure for a Grade I older horse. They usually run around a 115. It\'s also pretty much in line with any expected improvement from their 3YO form from last year. Another Beyer guy (different source) has an almost identical number for that race. If it\'s off, it\'s not by much.  

Beyer has the other older horses in CA running figures the low 100s. That\'s the PAR for classified allowance and listed stakes horses. If those figures are also inflated then the very best older horses in CA would have trouble with the typical top inner dirt track horse in NY. That can\'t be right.

You may be right about some of his circuits being out of sync, but CA can\'t be inflated in general. You would have to be more familiar with his scale and the PARs to appreciate what I mean. It\'s the other way around. Other circuits are too low.



Post Edited (03-04-05 19:20)

[TGJB]

CH-- RHT and Imperialism would not only have trouble with the top inner track horses, they would get whipped by them-- but only under the circumstances (ahem) that exist over the inner track.

RHT and Imperialism haven\'t been running against older horses, they\'ve been running in races restricted to 4yos, almost all of them local. Tomorrow they face what most would agree is not a top field of older horses-- take a look at how Congrats, Lundy\'s Liability and Supah Blitz did against Eastern horses, compared to how they\'ve done out west. The only real good one is Saint Liam, and there are a lot of reasons to think he may not fire, as I said in ROTW.Let\'s see how it plays out.

Mr. Hill-- Vlado and I aren\'t exactly pals these days, but I was pretty close to the situation when ETS was running, and I can tell you with a fair degree of confidence that he wasn\'t using anything then, since he was trying to help me get the crap stopped, and was the one who put together the petition all the trainers signed asking management to build a detention barn. My guess is that he got tired of getting beat, and tired of not enough being done about what all the trainers knew was going on.

TGJB,

Again, you may be right about the \"relative\" figures, but it is highly likely you are wrong about where the problem is. The problem is not CA (except maybe a specific race here or there). The problem is elsewhere. Believe me, I would never question your figure relationships, but I think you are not familiar enough with the Beyer scale and norm to see where his problem might be.  

RHT\'s CA figure prior to the Preakness and his Preakness figure (where he was very wide) were very similar on Beyer\'s scale. Given a figure of 100+ in May, a 109 in March of the following year is sensible for a 3yo. It\'s quite \"low\" for a Grade I older horse, but it\'s sensible in relation to his Preakness performance and other CA figures. If it\'s off, it\'s off by a length or a touch more.

More importantly, according to Beyer, Congrats is running even slower since he came to CA!!!!!!

So if I were to subtract from his CA Beyers because they are supposedly inflated, then you are telling me he got much slower since going to CA. I just don\'t believe that Congrats is running much slower since he came to CA. It\'s virtually impossible.

Beyer may need to up his figures for certain circuits outside CA to bring them all into sync, but if he were to reduce his CA figures (other than a race here or there) it would be a disaster. He\'d have Congrats running slower than most horses that run for a 35K tag. He\'s bad, but he\'s not that bad.  

You have a 100% understanding of your figures and may be right about the relative problems Beyer is having with various circuits.

>Tomorrow they face what most would agree is not a top field of older horses<

By the way, I agree.

They are a horror show except for St. Liam.

However, if I were to slow them down on Beyer\'s scale I would be very tempted to claim a horse at Finger Lakes and take him to the SA Handicap because he\'d be a stick out. :-)

[TGJB]

Leaving now, but a couple of things-- it\'s not about whether a figure is sensible, it\'s about whether it\'s right. Horses develop at different rates-- the question is not how much horses develop on average (we use the TGI for that), but how much THIS one developed. It would be a very big mistake to make figures based on projected development.

The problem (or one of them), as I said, is the Beyer relationships between California and all other tracks-- if you want to say they have all the other tracks slow relative to CA, fine. The problem is systemic, independent of blowing individual days/races. And incidentally, not that it would necessarily be meaningful, look at the raw times for the Strub and San Antonio, run on consecutive days at the same distance.

Good night.

[kev]

Why don\'t they jusy give the ok to use any meds you want. The DRF could list the meds the horses are on in the form.  No

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Feb. 6th San Antonio:

23 1/5, :47, 1:11, 1:49:05

Feb. 5th Strub

22.27, 45.16, 1:09.62, 1:35.64, 1:49.24

I think that Imperialism loves Santa Anita. I think he runs his very best races there. The Strub was very quick. We\'re gonna see how these races shake out in the next couple days. I don\'t think California is quite up to the best East Coast handicap horses. I don\'t think Rock Hard Ten is quite up to the best California\'s at 10 marks but hes not real far off.

The issue is the 3 year olds. They aren\'t California horses. Why should they be slower? The FOY will be the first test. I\'d prefer Valenzuela on Papi Chullo. I have no idea why K.C. Boy ducked the race, though I do think he\'s a notch below the others. He had a good spot though.

CtC

>Horses develop at different rates-- the question is not how much horses develop on average (we use the TGI for that), but how much THIS one developed. It would be a very big mistake to make figures based on projected development.<

I agree.

I didn\'t even make a figure for that race.

However, I was expecting RHT to move forward off his sprint and a 109 Beyer was within the range I was expecting based on his overall record. I agree that it is possible they overstated that figure by a few points (which would mean that Going Wild might be off a little too). I\'m too lazy to go back and check it because I don\'t think a few points will change my view on this race.  

Maybe we will learn more tomorrow, but I suspect that other than St. Liam, most of the other contenders are so similar in ability that whoever gets the best trip or improves a bit will get second money.

[Michael D.]

ctc,
KCB ducked because he was five lengths slower than high fly, and HF just got a rider change to bailey. why bother? the LaD is worth more, and the horse might prefer those tighter turns.

as for the strub, beyer has it fast, but i think he is the only one. the 10f big cap is a different animal. imp and RHT will do their thing. it\'s the san antonio that is the wildcard. judge that race correctly, add a furlong, and you get the winner. not easy.

>as for the strub, beyer has it fast, but i think he is the only one.<

He doesn\'t have it fast. He has it slow. He just has it a tad faster than some of the other terrible races in CA.  Another source has the same figure.

[TGJB]

No, he has it fast. The question is not how fast it is compared to some \"par\", it\'s how fast it is compared to other races. You are not betting horses out of the race against \"par\"-- you are betting them against horses out of the San Antonio and other races.

TGJB,

Why do we have to keep going in circles?

When someone says a race is fast that means the horses ran fast relative to some norm or par for the class!  

He has the race slow!

He has the race faster on a relative basis than you do and I believe you are correct that he might be off by about 3-4 Beyer points.

[TGJB]

CH-- you think Michael meant that Beyer has it fast compared to par, or to other races?

That\'s why we keep going in circles. The only one concerned about pars is you.

[Michael D.]

class,
he gave the race a 109, and he doesn\'t account for ground loss. imp was 2w/4w. 109 is fast.......

what to do with my old favorite imperialism here. the race sets up for him perfectly, but the beat last out was a killer. if i didn\'t cash there at 7-1 or so, i probably shouldn\'t be betting him today.