California Beyers

TGJB,

I didn\'t know what Michael meant. That\'s why I was clarifying.

The only reason I have been commenting about pars is because of the issue of whether Beyer\'s CA figures are systematically too fast or other areas of the country are systematically too slow.

I am of the opinion, that CA is generally OK and other parts of the country are suspect on the slow side. (TP for one)

IMHO, the best way determine \"where\" the problem is when using Beyer\'s scale is by looking at how fast horses are running relative to the norm/par.

If one entire circuit is slower than normal and another is running right at normal and you know based upon racing results that one of them is wrong, you can be pretty sure it\'s the slow circuit that\'s wrong.  

That\'s what my analysis of CA suggests.

Michael,

Top older horses average a 115 excluding ground loss. 112 is the average for Grade 2. So by giving it a 109, he was saying that these are subpar older horses. If we are correct in saying he might have it a tad too fast (more like a 105). then he is saying that RHT is a well below par Grade I older horse.

Here is another source of Beyer scale figures. He gave the race a 107.  

www.pacefigures.com

[Michael D.]

class,
i plead ignorance on beyer pars. comparing his # to other speed  figures which take into account ground loss (on that race), he has it fast. that\'s my only point...... on to the race. who does everybody like? i\'m still deciding.



Post Edited (03-05-05 18:38)

Michael,

>what to do with my old favorite imperialism here. the race sets up for him perfectly, but the beat last out was a killer. if i didn\'t cash there at 7-1 or so, i probably shouldn\'t be betting him today.<

I\'m of the opinion that the only things that can beat St. Liam are 10F or a rough trip on the front end from the outside (pace and ground loss). Maybe a combination of both.

I expect him to fire another good race.  

If he does fire a big one, it will take a much improved performance by someone to beat him. St Liam\'s ability is somewhat hidden because not only is he pretty darn fast, he earned some of those figures pressing very demanding paces against better horses than these. IMO, some of his races are better than the speed figures indicate.

I am also of the opinion that the horses most likely to improve are the ones that are recently turned 4YOs and perhaps also Lundy\'s Liability because he is very lightly raced and was clearly prepped for this.

However, among that second tier, when I balance their recent form vs. the probability of improving vs. the probability of getting a good trip I think it is very wide open and confusing.

The only real opinion I have is that Truly a Judge might be vulnerable for the place spot because he faces \"potential\" pressure on the front end from a superior horse like St Liam and then must negotiate 10F after that. That insight is worthless in this case though because it\'s not like Truly a Judge is going to be the second choice where I could throw hin out of the exacta. His odds will be longer. I see no value based on what I believe the odds will be. That makes this race a non event for me other my sporting interest.

Maybe they\'ll bet it in a surprising way and I\'ll change my mind.



Post Edited (03-05-05 18:47)

[kev]

The avg. winning Beyer for the Strub going back to 1992...is  112.5  avg. for the BC.Classic is 116.6   avg. Ky Derby is 109.46

Michael,

>i plead ignorance on beyer pars.<

There is no reason I can think of why you would need to know that anyway.

The only reason I know is because long ago I built a multi-year database of races with fractions, my own pace figures, Beyer scale speed figures, running positions, lengths behind at various call, class, distance, age, sex, surface, date, days between races, prior distance, trainer, odds, my bias opinion etc.... to study.

I used it as a combination handicapping study aid and information retrieval system.

I am now filled with tons of useless information and a handful of original insights about pace. The entire system was lost years ago when my computer blew out before I backed it all up . :-)

kev,

Thanks.

That is consistent with my research. I would expect the premier Grade Is to be slightly faster than average (the BC) and I would expect the Derby to be discounted by a number of points because the 3YOs are not fully developed.

My research indicated that 3yo colts as a class improved by about 1.1 or 1.2 Beyer point per month.

I had fillies maturing earlier than colts.

[Michael D.]

kilroe mile - i\'m handicapped out for today, but after a quick look, meteor storm has some competitive #\'s. looks a bit better going longer, but the soft turf might hurt some of the speedier sorts. layoff a major concern, but odds are long (12-1). hoping valdivia saves ground and makes one strong run.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> I\'m of the opinion that the only things that can beat St. Liam
> are 10F or a rough trip on the front end from the outside (pace
> and ground loss). Maybe a combination of both.
>
> I expect him to fire another good race.  

Saint Liam has a couple massive NegaFigs, but he don\'t have any at 10 marks and throws a Neg 1.5 as much as anything else at 9 marks.

With the distance and weight,(He\'s carried 126 before though, so I dont make the 122 a backbreaker here.) However, I\'d be very suprised if he ran a Neg 1.5. and any ground loss makes him vulnerable to other neg. 1 horses.

I think two have a chance to beat him. Lundy\'s Liability and Supah Blitz. Supah has to get back and keep going. Lundy has to move forward, but hes lightly raced and in excellent hands. I love his pedigree. He appears most likely for the upset.  I hate to say it but i\'m gonna key him and not forget Supah Blitz.

Well if you think St. Liam is vulnerable and RHT is a piece of garbage without any chance of finally moving forward you should find this board very interesting.

[Michael D.]

4th at 14-1 in the kilroe, oh well.....
 
against good judgement (and against good #\'s), i bet my old favorite imperialism in the big cap. hoping for a decent pace up front. hope the odds drift higher than 5-1, but i won\'t know - off to dinner. good luck everyone. nice ROTW TGJB, if imperialism clunks along for fourth like he probably will, i hope you hit it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

As a matter of fact I dont project increased performance at 10 marks for RHT. I guess we\'ll see.

[TGJB]

CH-- I don\'t think RHT is a garbage can and I do think he can move forward. But I would have to be getting a lot more than 7/2 to play a horse to move forward 2 points after that many starts, and that\'s what it would take to be a strong contender here.

CTC,

I agree. I also think that RHT is midly suspect at 10F. He spit it out pretty badly in the Belmont.

If I didn\'t like St\' Liam so much, I would be betting multiple horses to win here. THis is a great board



Post Edited (03-05-05 20:10)

Well I guess this settles the question of whether or not this is a horse with a lot of potential.