California Beyers

[jimbo66]

JB,

Fair enough.  On 1/29, the horse you liked came second behind the favorite for a short exacta.  

But you have to admit, it has been uncanny in the past few months that often the horse that the ROTW points to as a \"go against\" has continuously won the race.  

The posting was a little bit of frustration because I liked Congrats, however, after reading the ROTW, I became more negative on RHT than I was before reading it.  I used Borrego, Island Fashion and Congrats, with a few others in the triple, but needed RHT out of the money.  

Eventually things should even out, but if you look at the last six months of the ROTW objectively, you would have to admit that it has been a miserable streak and probably the worst period T-Graph has had in the last few years.

[Michael D.]

congrats had a tough trip. steadied and shuffled back before reaching the first turn. i doubt they wanted to be that far back. he closed well five wide, just had too much to do.

[Saddlecloth]

TGJB wrote:

> Jimbo-- no matter how you cut it, the 1/29 Sunshine Millions
> ROTW was a \"winner\", if there is such a thing. As for this
> week, I put knocks on the first FOUR favorites, three of whom
> did not crack the top five finishers, and made it clear I liked
> the 14-1 shot who ran second, a lot. Did I myself cash? No. But
> was this a \"loser\"? Hmmm...
>
> CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which
> actually would be around Beyer 109. But you do agree this was a
> better effort than the Strub-- I assume.
>
> RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I
> pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save
> one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing
> against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not
> fire.
>
>

well on the beyer leaderboard RHT is not listed so he must have run below a 102.  Are you saying you dont think he is top class cause he still has not beat anything?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which
> actually would be around Beyer 109. But you do agree this was a
> better effort than the Strub-- I assume.
>
> RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I
> pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save
> one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing
> against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not
> fire.

I\'m not gonna smart mouth RHT just now. I may bet against him, but that was a legitimate effort. It certainly wasn\'t two going front end wire to wire in Sally Schoolgirl fractions.

I do have to agree it wasn\'t the best Big Cap field I\'ve ever seen. So much of figures has to do with the extrapolations of wide but breaking this race down it would be very hard to accept Newtops from other than RHT and Grand Reward. It was  possible for a negative 1 or even a Zero at the distance to win this with these guys.

I certainly don\'t think Congrats ran a negative 2. Congrats has been a distance shy horse until this last race.

Obviously, I\'ll defer to TGraph on the final figure. It was a good race. Its hard to say it was a great one. It wasn\'t a great field.

Wait til Ghost and Rim have to face a real pace issue.

One other thing. If a Beyer is a 120 (they do show up occasionally) what is the TFig?.  about a negative 8-10 I think.

CtC



Post Edited (03-06-05 13:13)

[Michael D.]

RHT and congrats ran well. imperialism, lundy and truly a judge ran poorly. it\'s going to take a few more races to determine who rated the san antonio and strub races the best.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Don\'t disagree, an awful lot of horses that we didn\'t like or thought were underlays (like RHT) have bit us. I used RHT only if Congrats and Truly A Judge were both there in the triple, RHT beat me out of a win bet on Congrats as well.

Good thing we didn\'t have a streak like this when I was doing Post Time. It was tough to get up there after even 2 bad weeks in a row.
Of course, we were doing about 3 races a week, which spread things out a little bit.

By the way, the way you played it, with 2 of 3 longshots having to run in the top 3, I would have used RHT, for the same reason I used him in tris with my two longshots. The payoff is too big even with a favorite in to risk it. Of course, it depends on what else you are doing in the race and how much you are putting into it. But you sound like you send it in pretty good.

[TGJB]

Sadlle-- no, I\'m not talking about class, and I don\'t think that way. I\'m just saying what I said before the race, which is that the older dirt horse in SoCal aren\'t much-- that was why we were able to buy Even The Score, send him to CA, and win two GIIs.

[jimbo66]

JB,

YOu are right, I bet the race stupid.  Two of three longshots in the money and I don\'t cash.  I bet the race hard and SHOULD have had a saver with RHT in there.  I over-rated the post position 10 for RHT, thinking he would get stuck wider.  Never would have thought Congrats would get a wider trip from PP 3, than RHT from 10.

Even though I didn\'t cash, yesterday was a good day of horse racing and a sign that the \"winter doldrums\" of horse racing are over, and the good racing schedule starts...

[beyerguy]

Saddlecloth,

no way he ran below 102.  They haven\'t done figures for the race yet obviously.

TGJB,

>CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which actually would be around Beyer 109.<

I believe a negative 2 or 3 would be a little higher for Andy, but I have no idea what he will assign it.

> But you do agree this was a better effort than the Strub-- I assume.<

Absolutely.

It has always been my contention that he was much more likely to improve than people were giving him credit for - not that he was much better than people thought so far. IMO, his only poor efforts were excusable and he didn\'t really get a chance to demonstrate what he could do at 3.

>RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not fire.<

I agree that the CA group is a bad batch.

I agree that St. Liam did not run anywhere near his best, but I\'m not sure that 10F and the outside post didn\'t also contribute to how badly he was beaten. We probably disagree a little on this, but IMO it is often stressful on a frontrunner to be used from the outside to get position when they are also suspect at a distance. They often get beaten a lot worse than you would think between the conbination of the 2.

[TGJB]

CTC-- RHT will get about 2 points a better figure than Congrats after weight is factored in. My guess is that Congrats repeated, RHT went forward, Borrego ran back to his top, or close to it.

Michael-- certainly the testing issues inCA were another thing to consider when evaluating St. Liam. It is interesting, and it points out how difficult it is to deal with all this crap-- as I said a couple of weeks ago, who the hell can keep track of what they are supposed to be doing, and what they are actually doing, in each jurisdiction? I mean-- Kentucky banned milkshakes 4 years ago, and passes a rule to start testing for them TWO WEEKS AGO??? What the hell is that? California is testing, except for the 3 days last week they couldn\'t find someone to do the tests? And as far as milkshakes go-- results in CA aren\'t conclusive yet, but the testing may be having an effect. Meanwhile, in NY, with the same testing and far more severe punishment, the boys are still getting numbers.

Detention barns. Frozen samples. Vets listed on the program. Signed forms listing what went into the horse.

And don\'t even get me started about that clown Rick Arthur in California.

[Saddlecloth]

beyerguy wrote:

> Saddlecloth,
>
> no way he ran below 102.  They haven\'t done figures for the
> race yet obviously.

well they have them up for every other circuit, maybe not

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> And don\'t even get me started about that clown Rick Arthur in
> California.


I shouldnt bet Kalfornia cuz I dont\' follow it much. Who is Rick Arthur and whats his gig?

CtC

[kev]

I don\'t understand something here. What was the reason people didnt like RHT too much??? Low odds ( I think 9.60 is not too bad ) couldnt go the distance?? I didnt play the race, but I look at the ROTW after the fact. Wasnt RHT a horse that should have moved forward?? 4yr just breaking threw a old top by a small amount??? or are you all letting this distance and odds thing play too much into your handicapping, I know most don\'t like to play low odds, thats fair. If a horse is looking like the winner and hes 3-1, you either play the ex\'s or pass or bet to win, why try to beat someone like that?? Someone on Rag\'s board like him at 5-2 and up, what was fair odds on him??? Sounds like he had the same pattern on both sheets.

[TGJB]

Rick Arthur is the guy in charge of testing in California. When they first came up with positives, he announced the names of two of the trainers (Mullins and Cerin), but not the third because, he said, that one had in effect given his word that it was a screw-up, and they weren\'t worried about him (turned out to be Canani) because \"We know who\'s been naughty and who\'s been nice\".

Then last week he announced that they hadn\'t been able to test for milkshakes three days, but it had been an \"honest error\"-- the vet who was doing it had needed some days off, and they didn\'t have a backup. Let me get this straight-- YOU DIDN\'T KNOW AFTER THE FIRST DAY YOU HAD A PROBLEM??

In today\'s LA Times it now comes out that Arthur is a regular working vet who the track hired to do the job, rather than bring in one of their own. Meaning, he\'s the vet for SIX trainers he is policing, and potentially could be hired by any of the others.

Delmar Deb might want to chime in with other stuff, but I\'m having a very hard time keeping my comments suitable for family viewing here.