Hollywood Futurity

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m not seeing any major impact from outside the big three yet, but to this point I haven\'t looked for indications.

No firm and fast decisions yet, but the unavoidable fact is that Hollywood, per usual, is playing to front end types. I\'ve never seen so many :44 and 1:08 fractions. (Little wonder FuSham wired his maiden field last Saturday.) I\'m of the opinion that Wilko ran even better than many think last and that he is superior to DeClan\'s Moon, but he\'s facing DeClan\'s on a very biased home track. Wilko is working well, certainly better than coming into a race off turf past performances and no works, but he hasn\'t shown the types of works DeClan\'s has. That said, Wilko hung pretty close to them in the Juvenile. His one hole and quick run to the first turn could be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on his turn of foot. He did run gamely inside in his last European start. DeClan\'s of course hasn\'t faced two turns yet.

Proud Accolade is an enigma. He scored a huge 2 yr old number in the Champagne and 21 days later, in the B.C.,  you could figure him to bounce. He\'s back with blinkers trying two turns for the second time. His breeding makes him hard to discount for the Derby. (Its very solid on the dam side.) If hes got a big Derby shot why is he here? Assume that means his connections think he\'s a more viable Two Year old champion than Derby horse. If thats it, is he ready to fire large?

They are low odds horses, but its a very interesting race.

CtC



Post Edited (12-16-04 23:04)

[Silver Charm]

>Proud Accolade-Assume that means his connections think he\'s a more viable Two Year old champion than Derby horse. If thats it, is he ready to fire large?

The connections also stand the sire, so it would be a big boost in the sires resume. Who by the way was transfered to Ky this year to stand for 25K. (Call it the Lukas line (lol))

This is an exciting race because it decides an Eclipse, and it screams

DDDDDEEEEEEERRRRRBBBBYYYY

I thik it\'s going to be very difficult to find any value in this race.

1. Wilko won the BC in an upset, but many foreign runners do not duplicate their form second off the plane. He also may not be 100% given reports today.

2. Proud Accolade ran a disaapointing effort in the BC, and IMO he was not best in the Champagne. He got the jump on Afleet Alex in a moderate/slow paced race. IMO Afleet Alex was best that day. He\'s good on his best day, but what will he do here?

3. Declan\'s Moon is undefeated, but his reputation comes mostly from beating Roman Ruler in a very fast time when that one was considered the early leader of the division. Roman Ruler has since disappointed. Perhaps RR is just not as sharp as he was, but perhaps he was overrated to begin with. The Hollywood Prevue was a useful prep against mediocre horses (maiden graduates finished
2nd and 3rd). Probable sold favorite at post time. Derserves favoritism, but IMO not a bet at short odds. He\'s hyped a bit and this is 1st time 2 turns.  

4. Bushwacker is actually sort of interesting in that he improved sharply 2nd time out and has since worked like he\'s ready for an even better effort. You have to sort of wonder if he\'s going to want this distance. At a sprint, I might have considered using him at a big price to pull off an upset.
 
5. Southern Africa and the rest are banking on some of the better horses putting in disappointing efforts (certainly not impossible) or a big move forward.

I see this as a race to watch and not to bet.

[spa]

Wilko has a foot problem......

[Michael D.]

i won\'t bet it. PA is completely cranked, and we have a horse and two humans trying to lock up eclipses here (not sure the horse knows it though). wilko is still a mystery to me. i have a suspicion the LS surface favored speed on BC day, and helped carry this guy along. i guess the same could happen at Hol though. declan has been my favorite 2 yr old since his first start. speedy works, and he should get a nice stalking trip. rooting for declan, but won\'t bet him at low odds. i will stick with him through next year though, even if he comes up a bit short tomorrow.



Post Edited (12-17-04 19:19)

[Michael D.]

ctc,
velazquez has taken the mount on afleet alex for next year. maybe pletcher and cordero see PA as a better one turn horse?

[TGJB]

Didn\'t do it as ROTW, but there is a contrarian position available in that race. At a price, even if you protect underneath the faster ones.

Tell you what, I\'ll give Friedman credit for sticking his neck out on a slow horse pattern read in the Ladies. Have to say though, sounds from his comments like they have several fillies looking quite different.

I\'m going home now.

[derby1592]

If you are looking for value, what about Giacomo?

He has a nice line and could improve enough to win this if PA or Wilco don\'t repeat their tops (and they both could be over the top).

Best of all, he may be a huge price.

Of course, MS could also waste a big effort with his typical 3w3w ride....

Good luck.

Chris

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I liked Afleet Alex in the Breeders Cup and lost a significant bet. I miss spoke earlier about PA\'s pedigree. Somehow I was considering only the Septieme Ciel part of the dam side. He comes from an unaccomplished recent female pedigree. Its still not bad, but in my opinion he\'s not a Derby horse and thats why he\'s in the Futurity.

Pletcher may be able to pull it off, but if he does he\'s overcoming the following:

A less than stellar effort in his first two turn effort off a previous big race (Caveat, that Champagne was still the big number, (Not looking at TGraph));

A rare trip West that you have to suspect wouldn\'t have been made if he won the Juvenile;

A strip which so favors speed, Pletcher opted for blinkers. (This horse was undefeated coming into the B.C. Juvenile, was he really doing anything wrong?)

I just get the distinct impression, that circumstance have plotted PA\'s entry and not planning. That doesn\'t mean PA can\'t win, but this is not a \"picked spot\". For DeClan\'s it is.

The same can be said of Wilco. Why is he here? He\'s the B.C.Juvenile winner. Why is he running? He just popped a quarter crack, the track has been under intense scrutiny for safety considerations. (Horses are breaking down on it) Is it too hard? Is it too fast? Is the prudent thing to do to run Wilco on a patch for a crack he developed at Hollywood? I don\'t get it. He\'s had some good horses, but I am not a big fan of Dollase.

Then you have DeClan\'s probably going off at darn near even money despite never seeing two turns. TGJB appears to think there may be others with chances and thats what I\'ve been looking at since last night. I\'ll chime in when my thoughts coalesce.

CtC



Post Edited (12-17-04 20:26)

[marcus]

Also that Wilco LS BC number is so out of wack w/ previous demonstrated ability that it might be an aboration . Not to say Wilco\'s a one number Pony but it could be a while before we see that type of performance out of him - such a big forward move unsupported by pattern and previous numbers can and do very often take quite a bit out of a horse . If Wilco even makes it to race as a 3 year old , his line dosn\'t seem to be going anywhere ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"Wilko\" moved up on dirt is the way I read that. I don\'t think theres anyway you can say the effort was out of line with his priors. He\'s always been a decent horse and they said he really seemed to like his dirt drills. He wouldn\'t be the first that woke up on a switch of surfaces. He could regress. I just don\'t know how you say that without numbers to do so on. I like him, I just don\'t like the circumstances. Different trainer, different jockey. This quarter crack business is probably the last straw to keep me from betting on him.

Every horse has a knock against him and a case can be made for some of them too. I\'m too confused to bet this race. I might take a shot with a couple outside the big three if I could isolate one of the big three. The problem is, I can\'t isolate one of the three.

I\'m gonna watch suspecting Wilko is the best, but I\'m not willing to take 5-2 on that in the circumstances.



Post Edited (12-18-04 00:04)

[P.Eckhart]

\"He\'s always been a decent horse...\".

\"He wouldn\'t be the first that woke up on a switch of surfaces.\"

I might have thought these statements were contradictory had I not known Wilko\'s last performance figure was better than Ouija Board\'s Arc number (and F&M number).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wilko ran a bunch of steady Turf sprints (around -11) and then ran a Dirt 3. Thats a seven/eight point improvement, but can you really compare Turf to Dirt? I don\'t equate Turf figures with Dirt figures is what I was trying to say and I do think Wilko was a useful horse on Turf. Theres other factors as well. I think to say the Breeders Cup took too much out of him is hard to do in the circumstances.

Is the first Dirt effort, even vastly improved from Turf efforts, an indication that a taxing effort upon the new surface was given? That said, I make his dirt effort a little better than others. Cigar was a decent Turf horse, but he was in a whole different league on Dirt.

If Wilko gets beat it may be on a large B.C. effort, but he also could be vunerable on track bias, the connection changes and the quarter crack. Those factors trouble me more than his B.C. effort being out of line with his turf efforts. 2\'s didn\'t bother Afleet Alex much and 3\'s didn\'t hurt Roman Ruler until he had to duplicate them at two turns.

If you don\'t take Wilko, who do you take? Proud Accolade on a two turn failure trying to run with Bushwacker? DeClan\'s Moon (Conqueror of Roman Ruler) trying two turns for the first time at about even money? Maybe one of the three amigos Giacomo/Bushwacker/Southern Africa?

Someone is going to win and it\'s going to be an interesting race, but I\'m going to watch it.

CtC



Post Edited (12-18-04 05:06)

[twoshoes]

I'm going to play for Giacomo provided the price is right. Proud Accolade clearly reacted to the huge effort at Belmont on short rest in the BC. I think he'll move back toward that top but I'd be surprised if he paired it. Wilko's race in the BC was a substantial effort and I can easily seem him moving backward off that race. The fact he popped a quarter yesterday leaves more questions for me – the first sign of the stress? I've made a career out of playing against horses like Declan's Moon in spots like this. He may be good enough to beat me but if he does it will likely be at a bad price. He also faces a tough pace scenario here in my estimation. Like Class, I would have thought seriously about Bushwacker in a sprint but to my mind he'll still play a critical role here on or near the front end. Giacomo has a healthy line and I give him more of a chance to move forward here than the Thoro-Pattern suggests. He has two two-turn routes under his belt and the last was a decent race. The winner came back to win the Jackpot and the second place horse also returned to win. The pace of the race was decent but the top two were able to gallop along before really hooking up midway on the turn on a track that in my estimation was carrying speed. I know Hollywood has been speed favoring as a rule and the same could be true today but there are a lot of questions in my mind about all three major contenders and I think the pace scenario will advantage a horse like Giacomo. I think he'll improve a few lengths here. I'll play Giacomo to win and under Proud Accolade and Wilko in case either fire their best shot. Shop some around Giacomo in the pick four as well.

Good luck to all if you play.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I like that analysis and I agree that Texcess and the other horse tend to indicate Giacomo\'s effort wasn\'t bad. He\'s also carried the weight. The two that DeClan\'s beat are having to run at equal weights this time and that could hard for them to overcome even if they improve. I just have trouble applying the \"Key Race\" theory to a third place horse moving up to a Grade I, but the top three all have question marks, two year olds improve this time of year and these are relatively lightly raced Two Year Olds.

Theres a lot of logic in that bet Two, my problem is I really do try to pick winners and I\'m not getting the good feeling for any in this race. (Someones got to win it right?...lol)   I think Wilko is the best horse, but theres too many variables for me to conclude he\'ll be the best horse this afternoon. The quarter crack created that last straw of doubt. He\'s gonna be a short price, all three of them are. I don\'t like the track right now either.

Good Luck