Hollywood Futurity

[spa]

just returned from betting.....tooooo goooood!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[razzle]

TGJB and Allen,  nice call.  Had I not gone for the super, I would\'ve done better than 8-5, but I\'ll take it. raz

[Michael D.]

jimbo,
saddle slipped on b\'wacker. douglas tried to recover, but i think all hope was lost. i like the pedigree, more for turf though. keep an eye on this guy going 8f to 9f on turf.

Declan ran well. He deserved to be the favorite in this field, but IMO was not bettable at this price. Had there been someone in there of reasonable quality that wasn\'t \"suspect\" for one reason or another, he might have been a good bet against.    

This was the perfect scenario for me.

Personally, I don\'t think he has shown enough ability to be wildly enthusiastic about his triple crown prospects. He\'s good and has a chance, but he\'s nothing special. I don\'t think it will be all that difficult for someone to move past him this spring. I\'m also still suspicious of his ability to get 10F. He does not look like a horse that wants to relax and get 10F to me.  

However, now that he\'s the undefeated Eclipse Award winner (and will be hyped to death), that virtually guarantees at least two betting opportunities for 2005. The first one will be the first time he\'s spotted poorly (for whatever reason) and the second time will be the race right after that because \"they\'ll\" give him at least one more chance at short odds.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Class, Declan\'s is the horse that \"don\'t get no respect\". I tend to agree with you, even though he\'s done nothing wrong.

He figured to run well here despite the first try around two turns and he did, beating Wilko head to head in the race.

The rubber will meet the road at Arcadia or New Orleans, or Cincinnati when the others aren\'t pressing for the race and DeClan\'s isn\'t positioned to deal all the cards.

CtC



Post Edited (12-18-04 21:22)

[Saddlecloth]

yea smith sucks, he is the reason that piece of crap giacomo at 15/1 got such a bad trip and did not win.  friggen jockey stiffed me again

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

A couple things happened that might influence you to believe it could be a different story if run again or run on another track. The top three all have futures for the time being.

CtC

[Michael D.]

where can i get a futures bet down on chris to take the championship in vegas? .....
seriously, good luck matey. you have accomplished enough already, but i would love to see you take it all!!

[TGJB]

SC-- you have a very good memory. And yes, I almost never do \"live\"-- I covered a couple of times for Alan on the L.A. show when he was on vacation, and I did yesterday because I\'ve been friends with Dave Johnson for a long time, and he was doing a one shot with cable radio in hopes of it becoming a regular gig. I HATE it. And it showed at the Expo.

But if you get another show, I\'ll do it. Once.

[TGJB]

And even without the trouble, you can\'t be faulted for taking a lightly raced longshot against vulnerable favorites, Jimbo.

[marcus]

I don\'t know to many people who would consider a 10 + pt top \"moving up\" . It\'s probably more like \"up and out\" ... Assuming that you do use speed figures , and in very general terms , do you feel this type of forward move (and after so many races even w/ surface change) is detrimental to a horse\'s developmental curve and is at the very least suspect for the horse\'s future prospects ?
 Just curious if you had a pre race opinion on the 8th @ Hollywood ? In the 6th I like a tough pattern horse who is presently the longest shot in the field - Tizawinner . I like the horse w/ the buried number in the 7th - Dog Day\'s and the second favorite in the Starlet - Sharp Lisa  ...



Post Edited (12-19-04 21:50)

[derby1592]

Silver Charm you are much too kind as I can assure you that I get humbled by this game just as ofen as the next guy.

But thanks nonetheless.

Chris

P.S. Also thanks to Michael D. I will definitely need all the luck I can get...

[Silver Charm]

TGJB that promise alone is enough to tempt me out of retirement.

We only lasted three Derby\'s but they were not only fun, but so far ahead of the curve it was scary. Eclipse quality writers like Jennie Rees were guests, Blue-Chip handicappers such as Marty McGee and Dave Litfin, World Class Trainers like D Wayne Lukas and Paul McGee. We introduced Thorograph at a point in time where most SHEET users outside of New York and LA were considered lepers. After going thru an explanation of how ground loss is calculated, weight carried differentials factored in and wind into the numbers, I ran into a good friend the very next day who said, \"I always knew those Beyers were wrong\". No Joke.

After two $600 Triples the first year (Early Times and Derby) a \"I guarantee it on Silver Charm\" and that Triple \"Cold\" our luck ran out but then again maybe not. The next year is when I met Thorograph and Wayne. I had to get up at 4:30 AM for a week to lock him up. You TGJB I promised booze and starlets, you still wouldn\'t come on. It was that stress thing. You sent TGAB instead and he picked Cape Town, I sure he didn\'t bet Victory Gallop at 10-1(lol). He shouldn\'t have been concerned the only two listeners were my Mom and Dad and when they left town we had to cancel the show because we lost 100% of our listening audience.

This is really a fun time of year. There are some smart guys on this Board. Pedigree experts, trip experts, angle-guys, figure guys. I\'m sure by the first Saturday in May we will have it all broken down quite well. I know last year we did.

My radio days are over and because I will be so busy I won\'t able to participate as much if at all during the day. The next time you will see or here from me or my Boss, is over the airwaves on CNBC or something similar.

I think my horse this year is Consolidator, if you know what I mean.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm wrote:

> I think my horse this year is Consolidator, if you know what I
> mean.

lol

You can\'t pick a horse this early off a fourth in the Breeders Cup. Although Michael D. has been high on DeClan\'s since his maiden win. If DeClan\'s nails down the Derby thats gotta be an all time early backing.

You and Wayne Lukas,

lol

You can always rate them at this time. Heres mine:

1. The Servis Horse (forget his name)
2. Galloping Grocer
3. Afleet Alex
4. Texcess
5. DeClan\'s Moon
6. Wilko
7. Giacomo
8. Sun King
9. Straight Line, but i think hes on the shelf
10. Patriot Act

Thats an early list, gonna be lots of changes and I think we are gonna see some jump up this year that aren\'t known yet. Surprise, surprise.
 


CtC

CTC,

>If DeClan\'s nails down the Derby thats gotta be an all time early backing.<

I claim that award as thinking Seattle Slew was something special after his debut. Then again I said the same thing at least 5-6 times since then and I don\'t think any of them even made it to the triple crown. :-)