B.C. Numbers

[TGJB]

Full sheets with the numbers they ran on BC day are available in the RBR. A few points:

1-- It was obvious going in that trips would be important, and boy, were they.  Some were predictable, some were not, which is little solace to those of us who bet Bwana Charlie from the rail.

2-- Some of the first lasix horses jumped up, which was predictable, but overall the European figures held up extremely well.

3-- We gave out our first dead rail on turf ever. It wasn\'t simple-- I only gave it to those who spent a significant amount of time there (basically on 2 turns, whether in a 2 or 3 turn race), but as you will see it\'s pretty clear. Interestingly enough, I have been told the jockeys said the inside path was bad as well.

4-- The day was very easy to do-- look at each race and see what happens if you add or subtract from it (keep in mind you have to adjust everyone in the race by the same amount). You would think that on a day when so many horses ran to their figures we would have done better...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

 3-- We gave out our first dead rail on turf ever. It wasn\'t simple-- I only gave it to those who spent a significant amount of time there (basically on 2 turns, whether in a 2 or 3 turn race), but as you will see it\'s pretty clear. Interestingly enough, I have been told the jockeys said the inside path was bad as well.

Within context of the bulleted point, I\'m assuming you mean the jocks said the inside turf path was bad. I thought inside dirt was good unless you were up against the rail. More evidence in my opinion that Kitten\'s Joy was denied a placing by Better Talk Now.

Was just reviewing your numbers for the Cup. Nothing raised my eyes until I got to the Juvenile. I know it was after the Juvenile fillies and it was slower than the filly race. I\'m not of the opinion the track was slowing down in consideration of the Classic and I think you probably feel the same way. Nevertheless, I was surprised by Afleet Alex\'s number. My feeling is he overcame a tough break and an off poorly designation might account for equaling the previous number in what I felt was a much better race effort wise. He was much further behind at the first call than he has been in the past and the horses he paced against he\'d seen before. It may be as simple as you calling the start more cleanly than I interpreted it.

Then your Classic gave me pause. I\'m sure you realize you gave Pleasantly Perfect a near top on a likely injury and RIM a huge top. And Funny Cide the worse race of the year. (Personally I think it was even worse than scored.) Birdstone retired lame and his effort looks in line with an injury bothering him. The other efforts look good to me. If they are I realize that means the money earners ran fast. I\'ll defer to your ground loss calculations.

I\'ve learned the hard way that doubting your figures is not a good way to profit. I need to study Lonestar and BC Day some more. I\'ve got some very odd feelings about that day. Did your guys clock the races and are you comfortable with the offical clock and run ups in the juveniles? I\'m very skeptical of standards in Texas racing.



Post Edited (11-03-04 20:28)

[marcus]

To the best degree one could watch on television how horse\'s appeared during the post parade , I watched intently but I\'m not exactly sure (then or now) what I saw . I did notice most definately and with certainty that many horse\'s coming out of those tight turns into the straight aways practically had to vault from their last stride on turn to their first stride on strecth .
Saturday was a major Disapointment for me as well but I did manage to get lucky enough too have one Singletary winner on the day ...



Post Edited (11-04-04 07:12)

[TGJB]

The day was very straightforward, despite the track condition going from good to fast. It actually got about 2 1/2 points faster during the day, mostly between the Distaff and Fillies, meaning I added more to the Juvenile and Classic than the earlier races-- if I kept the track the same speed, they would have gotten even better figures in those races. But it would be hard to find a day that came out any tighter-- if you change anyone in a race you have to change all of them, and lots of numbers would come out funny.

[JR]

Sorry I missed them. Can you post a link where I can download them?

Thanks

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
given a 10f race between smarty and GZ, assuming equal ground loss, who do you think wins? also, in terms of lengths, how much faster do you think GZ is than AP Indy and easy goer were in their day (let\'s make it a 10f race at bel). very tough question, but i think a very important one, given your theory on today\'s horses.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

A couple of comments/questions.  Let me preface by saying I don\'t make figures and am not questioning the ones you posted, but they do raise a couple of questions.

1.  In hindsight, betting against Ashado was a miserable idea (I did this and I guess so did you).  According to your figures, she bounced 4 points and still won in a \"laugher\".  Granted, she got a great trip, but with the rail post and paucity of speed in the race, that was a probability.  I bet Tamwheel, because I thought she would save ground on the lead through soft fractions.  How GREAT would Island Fashion have had to run to compete in this race from the outside?  (a horse you liked and I also used on top in many tickets)  I just find it hard to believe that Ashado won that easily running 4 points off her top.

2.  The figure to Wilko strikes me as shocking.  I think you said the track got faster as the day went on.  The Juvenile race got a lousy number from Beyer (and Rags I am told), especially in comparison to the Juvy fillies.  Logically, I expected the numbers to reflect that the race \"fell apart\", but instead you have Wilko going through the roof (for him)

[miff]

Jim,

I tend to agree with your Ashado analysis, but remember in the BC she lost no ground and carried 5lbs less than her previous start.

Having said that I was very suspicious of her Ph Park minus fig along with Abbondanza\'s Ph Park minus fig on the same day. I checked the charts and spoke to a Ph Park regular who uses the Rags and he said the surface at Ph Park was like CEMENT on Saturday 10/2 and he felt the figs awarded by TG were too fast considering the surface.I guess there are differences of opinion.

[Michael D.]

ashado looks like a one paced animal to me. i think she would have run a better # if she had clear run the whole way (that is, not explosive enough to make up the difference in the final eighth). can\'t blame JR though, getting to the wire first is what counts. how many times did JR\'s mounts finish in front of horses who ran better figs on BC day? at least a few i would imagine.

I had a little trouble with those negative PHA numbers also, but I had no reason to completely ignore them. I just refused to make a bet based on them.



Post Edited (11-06-04 15:31)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I guess you all are discussing Abondanza. He led the Sprint til about the 1/8th pole so I think the Philly number probably has some merit. He caved late but he was running off a big top and its possible he bounced. That 1:08 at Philly was on a short freshing as well.

CtC



Post Edited (11-05-04 13:15)

[TGJB]

1-- The BC numbers can be found in ROTW.

2-- Racehorses are so much faster (and tracks so much slower) that comparison between generations is unfair. SJ was the best spring 3yo on figures ever, Sightseek the best mare, GZ the best horse. With no development, SJ\'s top would be 4 points slower than GZ\'s-- but that\'s about average development from spring 3yo to late 4yo. There is no way to know whether SJ would have developed that much, but in effect all 3 were about the same for what they were, meaning age and sex.

3-- I\'m pretty sure we posted that Ashado Philly Park race on the board a week or two ago, you should be able to find it with a search. If you look at the whole race you will see that it is tight as a drum. By the way, BC is one of the few days of the year that I see Ragozin\'s figures, and he also had her running a big new top. Not that I would care if he didn\'t.

I used Ashado heavily, because of the weight and ground. The one I didn\'t use was Storm Flag Flying. I also used the two that got the best figures in the race (SJ and IF). Ground loss was a very big deal in this year\'s BC.

4-- The Wilko figure was very straightforward, both in how it fit with the day and within the race itself-- he was the only horse that ran a new top, and only AA even paired up. Ragozin actually had the race significantly FASTER than we did-- we average about 3 points faster than them on dirt, and they had that race only one point slower.

5-- Given the effect ground loss played, the comment about Velasquez is interesting. The BC figures are there along with their paths (rounded off), and if someone wants to break the trips/jockeys/results down they can. In the case of Ashado, the rail helped, and the track configuration combined with bad posts killed several horses. In all seriousness, they should hold the damn thing at Churchill every year-- neutral sight, long stretch, used to handling big crowds, in the center of the racing universe. The BC is not like other races throughout the year-- the fields are bigger. Imagine if they ran the Derby at Lone Star with a 20 horse field.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I agree that Lone Star was not a good location, but I\'d hate to see Churchill get the event every year. Its America\'s Day at the Races (excuse me) and I think racing fans that attend the races at \"top flight\" tracks across the country have a right to see the event locally every now and then. Plus some horses don\'t handle certain strips. Its not fair to an Easy Goer to have the event at Churchill every year.

I\'d like to see the thing at Saratoga. Limit the number of tickets if space is a problem. Same for Del Mar and Oaklawn or even Keeneland. I\'d like to see Pimlico get it. Maybe even Woodbine. Have they had one at Woodbine?, I forget. What about the Fair Grounds, or even Philadelphia Park or Delaware Park or Suffolk Downs? I would have loved to have seen one at Hialeah. Just limit attendance a little if space is at a premium. Those that are really local race fans and want to go will be first in line. All of the sites I listed have a solid history in racing. They deserve a chance to hold it without having a shiny exterior like Arlington.

CtC

[Frank]

\"2-- Racehorses are so much faster (and tracks so much slower)\"

Have they also slowed all the grass courses in America? Why has there not been a flurry of track records on the grass seeing as racehorses are so much faster now?

I think the only thing so much faster are the speed figures and not the horses.

Frank

[miff]

Anyone playing the Big A must be aware of the incredible run Dutrow is on. The overall performances of his horses since the beginning of the Aqueduct meet is \"Oscar Like\".Must be the Nutrition program, again.